Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

MD 0202 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0903 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31... Valid 080303Z - 080400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered convection will linger across mainly the northern/central portions of ww31 this evening. DISCUSSION...Surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern High Plains this evening but convection has not developed along this boundary to any degree across northwest OK. Most robust convection has gradually weakened, partially due to weaker buoyancy due to onset of nocturnal cooling. Additionally, 1km AGL flow has gradually veered and this is not particularly advantageous given the decreasing instability. 00z sounding from OKC exhibited steep lapse rates, but PW values are seasonally low around 3/4". With boundary-layer decoupling it may become increasingly difficult to maintain organized severe updrafts. While an isolated hail report can not be ruled out, overall trends suggest severe threat will remain marginal from this point forward. ..Darrow.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31070142 36979900 36989700 31079956 31070142 Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW SJT TO 45 E BGS TO 55 NW ABI TO 15 SE LTS TO 20 W CHK TO 35 NW CQB. ..THORNTON..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-031-033-049-051-067-087-109-137-141-080340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-133-151-207-235-253-275-307- 353-399-417-429-431-441-447-451-485-487-503-080340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COKE COLEMAN CONCHO EASTLAND FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES KNOX MCCULLOCH NOLAN RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN WICHITA Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW SJT TO 45 E BGS TO 55 NW ABI TO 15 SE LTS TO 20 W CHK TO 35 NW CQB. ..THORNTON..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC027-031-033-049-051-067-087-109-137-141-080340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-133-151-207-235-253-275-307- 353-399-417-429-431-441-447-451-485-487-503-080340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COKE COLEMAN CONCHO EASTLAND FISHER HASKELL IRION JONES KNOX MCCULLOCH NOLAN RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN WICHITA Read more

WW 31 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 072100Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 31 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma West-central and western North Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are slowly intensifying in vicinity of a dryline over western Oklahoma and west Texas. This activity will track eastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of San Angelo TX to 40 miles east northeast of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0201 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30... FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30... Valid 080037Z - 080200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW30. Isolated tornado potential near the OK/KS border. DISCUSSION...Storm activity is ongoing across northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas along an eastward advancing dry line and warm front draped across southern Kansas. Two supercells located along surface warm front have shown better organization as they move eastward into dew points in the upper 50s. A narrow corridor near the warm front may support risk of an isolated tornado before storms cross to the cool side of the boundary, given enhanced vorticity along the front. Further west along the dry line, storms will likely cluster and attempt to grow up scale as the cold front moves east eventually overtaking the dry line. The main threats will likely be wind and hail with the linear storm modes. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36509635 36609708 36809729 37279729 37479667 37549570 37409524 37239513 37029512 36819520 36639544 36569587 36509635 Read more

MD 0200 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31... Valid 080000Z - 080200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31 continues. SUMMARY...Hail continues to be the primary risk with storms this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms, a few supercells, persist across ww31. This activity continues to evolve along the eastern plume of steeper lapse rates that extend across the southern High Plains of west TX into northern OK. While large-scale forcing is not particularly noteworthy, low-level convergence is more than adequate for renewed development east of the dryline, extending northeast along the synoptic front over OK. Hail has been the most common severe threat with this activity, and radar data suggests the most robust updrafts are generating hail in excess of 1 inch. Over the last hour or so, convection has gradually increased along the synoptic front from north of CDS to near PNC. This corridor may become more concentrated into the mid-evening hours as the boundary advances slowly southeast. ..Darrow.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31080143 36989899 36999700 31079956 31080143 Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N CDS TO 25 ENE CSM TO 25 NNW OKC TO 25 N PNC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 ..THORNTON..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-031-033-049-051-055-057-065-067-075-083-087-103- 109-137-141-149-080240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-080240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PNC TO 10 NW PNC TO 25 SE ICT TO 5 SW EMP. ..THORNTON..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-019-035-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON OKC035-071-105-113-147-080240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG KAY NOWATA OSAGE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PNC TO 10 NW PNC TO 25 SE ICT TO 5 SW EMP. ..THORNTON..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-019-035-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON OKC035-071-105-113-147-080240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG KAY NOWATA OSAGE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PNC TO 10 NW PNC TO 25 SE ICT TO 5 SW EMP. ..THORNTON..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-019-035-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-080240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON OKC035-071-105-113-147-080240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG KAY NOWATA OSAGE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more