Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest, but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region. At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front, with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist through the early evening hours in coastal areas. ..Guyer.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast states today through tonight. Some may be accompanied by potential for tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and wind, particularly across parts of southern into central Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An amplified regime within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific may continue to develop eastward through this period. This may include at least a short-lived evolution of a high center across the northern U.S. Intermountain region, within broader scale mid/upper ridging spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the eastern Canadian Prairies and portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream of this ridging, significant troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, perhaps gradually beginning to come in phase with a lead impulse, within broad mid/upper troughing slowly emerging from the Southwest, before the end of the period. Substantive spread is evident within/among the various model output concerning this evolution, and model depictions of associated surface frontal wave development/cyclogenesis across and east of the Mississippi Valley are rather varied. A significant low-level cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to surge through the remainder of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, while advancing a bit slower across/east of the middle Mississippi Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. It does appear that a more modest ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Appalachians will stall, with a frontal zone becoming better defined across the southern Piedmont by 12Z Saturday. A more substantive return of low-level moisture is ongoing across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf coastal plain vicinity. This is likely to continue to advect northeastward, and may include surface dew points increasing to near 70F across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. How far north and east will hinge on at least a couple of factors, including the impacts of outflow from persistent convective development forecast to spread east of the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and the extent of the development of a possible trailing surface low. Both of these remain uncertain, and could considerably impact the extent of the severe weather potential for this period. ...Gulf States... Convection rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northwestern periphery of low-amplitude subtropical ridging, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across the lower Mississippi Valley, and persist through much of the period, gradually spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states. Substantive low-level moistening appears likely to follow in its wake, with trailing convective outflow at least initially limiting the northern extent of the better boundary-layer moistening. By mid to late afternoon, a zone of stronger differential surface heating may become best defined across parts of southwestern Alabama and south central Mississippi into northeastern Louisiana, near a developing surface low. Coupled with the boundary-layer moistening, weak to moderate CAPE (500-1000+ J/kg) may develop along this zone and contribute to the initiation of new thunderstorm development, in the presence of continuing low-level warm advection, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper flow. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of sustained discrete supercells. Moderate southerly low-level flow across this region may also promote sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, with conditional potential for a strong tornado or two, depending on the evolution of the near surface thermodynamic profiles. It is possible that this activity could persist into the evening, and perhaps overnight, with a tendency for the lingering focusing surface boundary to develop east-northeastward across parts of southern into central Alabama and Georgia. Again much will depend on the upstream surface low evolution, which remains unclear. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/08/2024 Read more