Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0204 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST TX INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...East TX into central/southern LA and southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081520Z - 081715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential is possible through the morning. Hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two will become possible with time. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from parts of east TX into LA. A convectively reinforced surface front is draped from northeast TX into northern LA and west-central MS. To the south of the front, rich low-level moisture is in place, with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F. Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating through the morning, but modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg through the morning, helping to maintain convection as it generally spreads eastward. Deep-layer shear is favorable for organized convection across the region, though storms may struggle to mature due to the lack of stronger heating and generally weak low-level lapse rates. Eventually, a couple supercells may become established from east TX into LA and perhaps southwest MS, posing a threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. If supercells can be sustained, a tornado or two will also be possible, especially from central/eastern LA into southwest MS, where some airmass recovery is expected in the wake of an earlier storm cluster, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 is expected to persist through much of the day. Watch issuance will become possible if the threat for maturing supercells appears imminent, though the onset of a greater threat and potential watch timing remain uncertain. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30909589 32129550 32229415 32179289 31939137 31629037 31359017 30689035 30469123 30259235 30169287 30359446 30469504 30689574 30909589 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024 Read more