Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0055 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0055 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0263 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54... Valid 152305Z - 160100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana for a couple more hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the main threats. The severe threat may spread eastward further into southwest Louisiana, but is expected to be too marginal for additional weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Houston shows a cluster of strong thunderstorms near the Texas-Louisiana state line, with additional more discrete storms to the southwest of Houston. The storms are located along the eastern edge of a moderately unstable airmass where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Houston and Lake Charles have 0-6 km shear generally in the 55 to 65 knot range. This environment should support a severe threat for a couple more hours, with a potential for wind damage and isolated large hail. On radar, an outflow boundary is moving southward off the coast of southwest Louisiana. The airmass behind the boundary is more stable. As the stronger cells move eastward into this relatively weak instability across southwest Louisiana, the severe threat is expected to become marginal. For this reason, watch issuance is not planned to the east of WW 54. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 30419530 30759385 30729304 30449271 30079276 29809298 29769337 29759408 29309496 28979547 28809597 28819640 29029669 29359686 29709673 30019629 30419530 Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DRT TO 35 E DRT TO 5 WSW HDO TO 45 NE COT TO 35 NNW NIR TO 30 N VCT TO 30 N PSX TO 15 WSW HOU TO 25 W BPT. ..BROYLES..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC025-039-071-127-163-167-175-239-245-283-297-311-321-323-361- 469-479-507-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS DIMMIT FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD JACKSON JEFFERSON LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK ORANGE VICTORIA WEBB ZAVALA GMZ335-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DRT TO 35 E DRT TO 5 WSW HDO TO 45 NE COT TO 35 NNW NIR TO 30 N VCT TO 30 N PSX TO 15 WSW HOU TO 25 W BPT. ..BROYLES..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC025-039-071-127-163-167-175-239-245-283-297-311-321-323-361- 469-479-507-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS DIMMIT FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD JACKSON JEFFERSON LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK ORANGE VICTORIA WEBB ZAVALA GMZ335-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DRT TO 35 E DRT TO 5 WSW HDO TO 45 NE COT TO 35 NNW NIR TO 30 N VCT TO 30 N PSX TO 15 WSW HOU TO 25 W BPT. ..BROYLES..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC025-039-071-127-163-167-175-239-245-283-297-311-321-323-361- 469-479-507-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS DIMMIT FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD JACKSON JEFFERSON LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK ORANGE VICTORIA WEBB ZAVALA GMZ335-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DRT TO 35 E DRT TO 5 WSW HDO TO 45 NE COT TO 35 NNW NIR TO 30 N VCT TO 30 N PSX TO 15 WSW HOU TO 25 W BPT. ..BROYLES..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC025-039-071-127-163-167-175-239-245-283-297-311-321-323-361- 469-479-507-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS DIMMIT FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD JACKSON JEFFERSON LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK ORANGE VICTORIA WEBB ZAVALA GMZ335-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DRT TO 35 E DRT TO 5 WSW HDO TO 45 NE COT TO 35 NNW NIR TO 30 N VCT TO 30 N PSX TO 15 WSW HOU TO 25 W BPT. ..BROYLES..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC025-039-071-127-163-167-175-239-245-283-297-311-321-323-361- 469-479-507-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS DIMMIT FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD JACKSON JEFFERSON LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK ORANGE VICTORIA WEBB ZAVALA GMZ335-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 54 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 151835Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of southern and southeastern Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage across southern and eventually into southeastern Texas over the next few hours. Very large hail will be possible with these storms, along with potential for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Storms may linger into the evening, particularly across western portions of the watch across the Rio Grande Valley vicinity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles either side of a line from 95 miles west of Hondo TX to 15 miles northeast of Galveston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Goss Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0263 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54... Valid 152305Z - 160100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana for a couple more hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the main threats. The severe threat may spread eastward further into southwest Louisiana, but is expected to be too marginal for additional weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Houston shows a cluster of strong thunderstorms near the Texas-Louisiana state line, with additional more discrete storms to the southwest of Houston. The storms are located along the eastern edge of a moderately unstable airmass where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Houston and Lake Charles have 0-6 km shear generally in the 55 to 65 knot range. This environment should support a severe threat for a couple more hours, with a potential for wind damage and isolated large hail. On radar, an outflow boundary is moving southward off the coast of southwest Louisiana. The airmass behind the boundary is more stable. As the stronger cells move eastward into this relatively weak instability across southwest Louisiana, the severe threat is expected to become marginal. For this reason, watch issuance is not planned to the east of WW 54. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 30419530 30759385 30729304 30449271 30079276 29809298 29769337 29759408 29309496 28979547 28809597 28819640 29029669 29359686 29709673 30019629 30419530 Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW DRT TO 45 SSE SAT TO 30 N PSX TO 30 W BPT. ..BROYLES..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-039-071-127-163-167-175-239-245-255-283-297-311-321- 323-361-469-479-507-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS DIMMIT FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD JACKSON JEFFERSON KARNES LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK ORANGE VICTORIA WEBB ZAVALA GMZ335-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more