Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

MD 0266 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... FOR PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of Deep South TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55... Valid 160711Z - 160915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and isolated severe gusts will persist overnight. Local watch extension may be needed. DISCUSSION...A supercell cluster over Deep South TX has shown gradual signs of upscale growth early this morning. A supercell over Starr County has recently accelerated eastward, while an earlier supercell has nearly stalled over Brooks County. The merger of these cells and their respective cold pools could result in a forward-propagating complex that approaches the coast later this morning. Flow is generally rather weak below 6 km AGL, but upper-level flow is sufficient to aid in maintaining some storm organization through the early morning. Steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will continue to support some hail threat for as long as semi-discrete storm mode is maintained. Strong to locally severe gusts will also be possible, especially if any additional upscale growth occurs. With WW 55 scheduled to expire at 08Z, local watch extension may need to be considered, depending on short-term convective trends. ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26629920 27219825 27299781 27229752 26949735 26729736 26539760 26399794 26329828 26269844 26329891 26629920 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

MD 0265 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55... Valid 160441Z - 160645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage is likely to continue for a few more hours across south Texas. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Corpus Christi shows a large supercell to the southeast of Laredo. This storm is located along the northern edge of a pocket of moderate to strong instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The storm appears to be supported by a large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Lift associated with the trough, steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will likely continue to be favorable for a severe threat as this storm moves eastward across south Texas, and with additional cells that develop within the small cluster. A potential for large hail and wind damage is expected to persist for a few more hours. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27769923 27289940 26879930 27029825 27269806 27969816 27769923 Read more