Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 16 22:29:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 16 22:29:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more