Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A southern stream upper trough over the Gulf and southern U.S. early Saturday will shift east through the period, moving offshore the Southeast coast by Sunday morning. This will focus stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow across FL and near the coastal Carolinas through 00z. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity southwest into the eastern Gulf during the morning. The front will shift east/southeast during the day, moving offshore from the Carolinas by late afternoon/early evening, and sagging southward across FL through evening. ...NC coast/Outer Banks... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning ahead of the cold front in a low-level warm advection regime. While higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will likely remain offshore, weak instability is forecast in the vicinity of the Outer Banks. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. An additional round of thunderstorms associated with the cold front will be possible across far eastern NC and the Outer Banks later in the afternoon. Modest airmass recovery is possible if morning convection and cloud debris exit early enough, though instability is still expected to remain limited. Vertical shear will increase by afternoon and some organized convection is possible, posing mainly a conditional risk for locally strong gusts. ...South FL/FL Keys... Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the FL Keys/FL Straits Saturday morning as a continuation of thunderstorm clusters impacting the region during the Day 1 period. While the synoptic cold front will be over northern FL early in the day, a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/effective front will likely be draped across the southern FL Peninsula. Strong vertical shear will remain over the region through early afternoon before low-level flow becomes veered and midlevel subsidence starts to impinge on the region with the arrival of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate moderate destabilization is possible given a very moist boundary-layer beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, though this remains conditional on airmass recovery. Any thunderstorms that develop may pose a risk for locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two through early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should move offshore by mid/late afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A southern stream upper trough over the Gulf and southern U.S. early Saturday will shift east through the period, moving offshore the Southeast coast by Sunday morning. This will focus stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow across FL and near the coastal Carolinas through 00z. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity southwest into the eastern Gulf during the morning. The front will shift east/southeast during the day, moving offshore from the Carolinas by late afternoon/early evening, and sagging southward across FL through evening. ...NC coast/Outer Banks... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning ahead of the cold front in a low-level warm advection regime. While higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will likely remain offshore, weak instability is forecast in the vicinity of the Outer Banks. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. An additional round of thunderstorms associated with the cold front will be possible across far eastern NC and the Outer Banks later in the afternoon. Modest airmass recovery is possible if morning convection and cloud debris exit early enough, though instability is still expected to remain limited. Vertical shear will increase by afternoon and some organized convection is possible, posing mainly a conditional risk for locally strong gusts. ...South FL/FL Keys... Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the FL Keys/FL Straits Saturday morning as a continuation of thunderstorm clusters impacting the region during the Day 1 period. While the synoptic cold front will be over northern FL early in the day, a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/effective front will likely be draped across the southern FL Peninsula. Strong vertical shear will remain over the region through early afternoon before low-level flow becomes veered and midlevel subsidence starts to impinge on the region with the arrival of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate moderate destabilization is possible given a very moist boundary-layer beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, though this remains conditional on airmass recovery. Any thunderstorms that develop may pose a risk for locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two through early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should move offshore by mid/late afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A southern stream upper trough over the Gulf and southern U.S. early Saturday will shift east through the period, moving offshore the Southeast coast by Sunday morning. This will focus stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow across FL and near the coastal Carolinas through 00z. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity southwest into the eastern Gulf during the morning. The front will shift east/southeast during the day, moving offshore from the Carolinas by late afternoon/early evening, and sagging southward across FL through evening. ...NC coast/Outer Banks... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning ahead of the cold front in a low-level warm advection regime. While higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will likely remain offshore, weak instability is forecast in the vicinity of the Outer Banks. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. An additional round of thunderstorms associated with the cold front will be possible across far eastern NC and the Outer Banks later in the afternoon. Modest airmass recovery is possible if morning convection and cloud debris exit early enough, though instability is still expected to remain limited. Vertical shear will increase by afternoon and some organized convection is possible, posing mainly a conditional risk for locally strong gusts. ...South FL/FL Keys... Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the FL Keys/FL Straits Saturday morning as a continuation of thunderstorm clusters impacting the region during the Day 1 period. While the synoptic cold front will be over northern FL early in the day, a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/effective front will likely be draped across the southern FL Peninsula. Strong vertical shear will remain over the region through early afternoon before low-level flow becomes veered and midlevel subsidence starts to impinge on the region with the arrival of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate moderate destabilization is possible given a very moist boundary-layer beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, though this remains conditional on airmass recovery. Any thunderstorms that develop may pose a risk for locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two through early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should move offshore by mid/late afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A southern stream upper trough over the Gulf and southern U.S. early Saturday will shift east through the period, moving offshore the Southeast coast by Sunday morning. This will focus stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow across FL and near the coastal Carolinas through 00z. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity southwest into the eastern Gulf during the morning. The front will shift east/southeast during the day, moving offshore from the Carolinas by late afternoon/early evening, and sagging southward across FL through evening. ...NC coast/Outer Banks... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning ahead of the cold front in a low-level warm advection regime. While higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will likely remain offshore, weak instability is forecast in the vicinity of the Outer Banks. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. An additional round of thunderstorms associated with the cold front will be possible across far eastern NC and the Outer Banks later in the afternoon. Modest airmass recovery is possible if morning convection and cloud debris exit early enough, though instability is still expected to remain limited. Vertical shear will increase by afternoon and some organized convection is possible, posing mainly a conditional risk for locally strong gusts. ...South FL/FL Keys... Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the FL Keys/FL Straits Saturday morning as a continuation of thunderstorm clusters impacting the region during the Day 1 period. While the synoptic cold front will be over northern FL early in the day, a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/effective front will likely be draped across the southern FL Peninsula. Strong vertical shear will remain over the region through early afternoon before low-level flow becomes veered and midlevel subsidence starts to impinge on the region with the arrival of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate moderate destabilization is possible given a very moist boundary-layer beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, though this remains conditional on airmass recovery. Any thunderstorms that develop may pose a risk for locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two through early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should move offshore by mid/late afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the southern extent of the Elevated area. Locally dry and breezy conditions may extended somewhat farther south along the eastern Rio Grande Valley and coastal Plain due to funneling of terrain-enhanced winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Area fuels are only modestly receptive to fire-weather concerns, but gusty winds of 15-20 mph and humidity below 20% appears briefly likely before the front moves in. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the southern extent of the Elevated area. Locally dry and breezy conditions may extended somewhat farther south along the eastern Rio Grande Valley and coastal Plain due to funneling of terrain-enhanced winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Area fuels are only modestly receptive to fire-weather concerns, but gusty winds of 15-20 mph and humidity below 20% appears briefly likely before the front moves in. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the southern extent of the Elevated area. Locally dry and breezy conditions may extended somewhat farther south along the eastern Rio Grande Valley and coastal Plain due to funneling of terrain-enhanced winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Area fuels are only modestly receptive to fire-weather concerns, but gusty winds of 15-20 mph and humidity below 20% appears briefly likely before the front moves in. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the southern extent of the Elevated area. Locally dry and breezy conditions may extended somewhat farther south along the eastern Rio Grande Valley and coastal Plain due to funneling of terrain-enhanced winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Area fuels are only modestly receptive to fire-weather concerns, but gusty winds of 15-20 mph and humidity below 20% appears briefly likely before the front moves in. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the southern extent of the Elevated area. Locally dry and breezy conditions may extended somewhat farther south along the eastern Rio Grande Valley and coastal Plain due to funneling of terrain-enhanced winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Area fuels are only modestly receptive to fire-weather concerns, but gusty winds of 15-20 mph and humidity below 20% appears briefly likely before the front moves in. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the southern extent of the Elevated area. Locally dry and breezy conditions may extended somewhat farther south along the eastern Rio Grande Valley and coastal Plain due to funneling of terrain-enhanced winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Area fuels are only modestly receptive to fire-weather concerns, but gusty winds of 15-20 mph and humidity below 20% appears briefly likely before the front moves in. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the southern extent of the Elevated area. Locally dry and breezy conditions may extended somewhat farther south along the eastern Rio Grande Valley and coastal Plain due to funneling of terrain-enhanced winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Area fuels are only modestly receptive to fire-weather concerns, but gusty winds of 15-20 mph and humidity below 20% appears briefly likely before the front moves in. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...17z update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the southern extent of the Elevated area. Locally dry and breezy conditions may extended somewhat farther south along the eastern Rio Grande Valley and coastal Plain due to funneling of terrain-enhanced winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Area fuels are only modestly receptive to fire-weather concerns, but gusty winds of 15-20 mph and humidity below 20% appears briefly likely before the front moves in. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of southern mainland Florida. ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of southern mainland Florida. ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of southern mainland Florida. ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of southern mainland Florida. ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of southern mainland Florida. ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of southern mainland Florida. ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of southern mainland Florida. ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of southern mainland Florida. ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024 Read more