Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this period will be a major, synoptic-scale trough progressing eastward across the western CONUS. Moisture-channel imagery indicates a closed cyclone, centered over near-coastal southwestern OR, with troughing south- southeastward roughly along the CA/OR coastline then west of Baja. Ahead of that, a shortwave trough was evident over the lower Colorado River Valley region. The OR low will dissipate today while the basal shortwave trough pivots eastward across southern AZ to eastern NM, reaching near a GCK-CVS axis by 00Z. A new closed 500-mb low should form this evening over the southwestern KS vicinity, temporarily decelerating into erratic/cycloidal motion over the same area until early day-2. At the surface, a low was analyzed near LHX, with warm front across northern KS to near MKC. The low should move little through most of the day, remaining over the High Plains of eastern CO near the KS line as the mid/upper shortwave trough approaches. The warm front should pivot northwestward and merge with an initially separate surface trough over NE. The low should shift eastward over western KS tonight as a wave along a frontogenetic zone. By 12Z, the low should reach north-central KS, with cold front trailing across the TX Panhandle to east-central/northeastern NM, and warm front northeastward to the YKN region then eastward over northern IA. A dryline will become better-defined through the afternoon from a frontal intersection in the GLD-ITR area to southwestern KS, then across western OK to west-central/southwest TX, as moist advection occurs to its east and diurnal heating/mixing to its west. A wind shift and Pacific cold front, preceding the shortwave trough, will move across eastern NM today and west TX this evening, overtaking the dryline tonight. That combined boundary should shift eastward across OK and north/central TX, reaching near a BVO-PRX-SAT line then southwestward into northeastern Coahuila by 12Z tomorrow. ...Central/southern Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline this afternoon, some of which should become supercells offering large hail and locally damaging to severe gusts as they move obliquely across the narrow warm/moist sector. A couple tornadoes also are possible as well, especially late afternoon into early evening when a time window of overlap between surface-based inflow and LLJ-maximized hodographs may develop. Tonight, additional thunderstorms are possible as the dryline and Pacific front merge, with isolated potential for all hazards. Ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, strong height falls, along with left-exit region upper-jet forcing, midlevel DCVA, and accompanying large-scale ascent/cooling, should reach the KS/OK portion of the dryline around midafternoon. Those processes will further reduce already cold mid/upper-level temperatures, especially in areas between I-40 and I-70 before dark. A plume of elevated, non-severe convection/precip should form in moistening, low-level warm advection across parts of western OK into southern KS the next few hours and shift eastward over those states today. Behind that, and beneath the stronger cooling aloft, a narrow sector of diurnally heated moist-sector air should develop -- perhaps only 40-70 nm wide in OK. However, even limited insolation should erode capping considerably over OK and KS while midlevel lapse rates steepen, and moist advection offsets mixing enough to maintain or even increase boundary-layer moisture. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F already are common from north TX to portions of south-central KS, and should persist or increase somewhat. This will support 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE in that post-precip/pre-dryline plume. 40-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes are possible over parts of central/ southern KS and western OK, with very large hodographs (effective SRH 300-600 J/kg). As the stronger cooling aloft and frontal forcing extend over increasing moisture tonight, under nearly boundary-parallel mid/upper flow, a line of strong/locally severe convection may form between southern OK and the Edwards Plateau and move eastward. Activity should weaken late overnight to near the end of the period as it encounters a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer. ..Edwards/Grams.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this period will be a major, synoptic-scale trough progressing eastward across the western CONUS. Moisture-channel imagery indicates a closed cyclone, centered over near-coastal southwestern OR, with troughing south- southeastward roughly along the CA/OR coastline then west of Baja. Ahead of that, a shortwave trough was evident over the lower Colorado River Valley region. The OR low will dissipate today while the basal shortwave trough pivots eastward across southern AZ to eastern NM, reaching near a GCK-CVS axis by 00Z. A new closed 500-mb low should form this evening over the southwestern KS vicinity, temporarily decelerating into erratic/cycloidal motion over the same area until early day-2. At the surface, a low was analyzed near LHX, with warm front across northern KS to near MKC. The low should move little through most of the day, remaining over the High Plains of eastern CO near the KS line as the mid/upper shortwave trough approaches. The warm front should pivot northwestward and merge with an initially separate surface trough over NE. The low should shift eastward over western KS tonight as a wave along a frontogenetic zone. By 12Z, the low should reach north-central KS, with cold front trailing across the TX Panhandle to east-central/northeastern NM, and warm front northeastward to the YKN region then eastward over northern IA. A dryline will become better-defined through the afternoon from a frontal intersection in the GLD-ITR area to southwestern KS, then across western OK to west-central/southwest TX, as moist advection occurs to its east and diurnal heating/mixing to its west. A wind shift and Pacific cold front, preceding the shortwave trough, will move across eastern NM today and west TX this evening, overtaking the dryline tonight. That combined boundary should shift eastward across OK and north/central TX, reaching near a BVO-PRX-SAT line then southwestward into northeastern Coahuila by 12Z tomorrow. ...Central/southern Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline this afternoon, some of which should become supercells offering large hail and locally damaging to severe gusts as they move obliquely across the narrow warm/moist sector. A couple tornadoes also are possible as well, especially late afternoon into early evening when a time window of overlap between surface-based inflow and LLJ-maximized hodographs may develop. Tonight, additional thunderstorms are possible as the dryline and Pacific front merge, with isolated potential for all hazards. Ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, strong height falls, along with left-exit region upper-jet forcing, midlevel DCVA, and accompanying large-scale ascent/cooling, should reach the KS/OK portion of the dryline around midafternoon. Those processes will further reduce already cold mid/upper-level temperatures, especially in areas between I-40 and I-70 before dark. A plume of elevated, non-severe convection/precip should form in moistening, low-level warm advection across parts of western OK into southern KS the next few hours and shift eastward over those states today. Behind that, and beneath the stronger cooling aloft, a narrow sector of diurnally heated moist-sector air should develop -- perhaps only 40-70 nm wide in OK. However, even limited insolation should erode capping considerably over OK and KS while midlevel lapse rates steepen, and moist advection offsets mixing enough to maintain or even increase boundary-layer moisture. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F already are common from north TX to portions of south-central KS, and should persist or increase somewhat. This will support 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE in that post-precip/pre-dryline plume. 40-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes are possible over parts of central/ southern KS and western OK, with very large hodographs (effective SRH 300-600 J/kg). As the stronger cooling aloft and frontal forcing extend over increasing moisture tonight, under nearly boundary-parallel mid/upper flow, a line of strong/locally severe convection may form between southern OK and the Edwards Plateau and move eastward. Activity should weaken late overnight to near the end of the period as it encounters a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer. ..Edwards/Grams.. 03/24/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more