Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... High-end critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Morning visible imagery shows clouds have quickly cleared across the High Plains ahead of a dryline forecast to mix rapidly eastward. Strong southwesterly winds (observed gusts of 50+ kt) over eastern NM should quickly spread eastward into parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK/KS by early afternoon. Sustained winds at 30+ mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph, overlapping with RH of 15-20%, and abnormally high fine-fuel loading, widespread, high-end, critical fire-weather conditions are expected for several hours this afternoon and evening. Localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions are also possible given the magnitude of the expected wind gusts. The most likely corridor for transient extreme conditions will be from OK/TX border, south towards CDS, and southwest towards the TX Big Bend, along and east of the LLTR axis. High-based convection along the dryline will support a low risk for dry lightning strikes across the High Plains. The ISODryT area was shifted south to include areas of higher confidence in storm initiation near the OK/TX border. Please see the previous outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Southern KS into Western OK... Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving negatively-tilted upper trough rotating across the four-corners region toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this system, strong low-level cyclogenesis is occurring over eastern CO, resulting in strong southerly low-level winds throughout much of the southern Plains. Strong heating in the High Plains will help to mix the surface dryline eastward into the eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon, where widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. This will be on the nose of a 70-80 kt mid-level jet max. The synoptic setup, vertical shear profiles, and mid-level lapse rates look very favorable for severe storms today. The major limiting factor for a more significant outbreak is the meager low-level moisture (dewpoints only in the low-mid 50s). This will likely limit the number of storms that form, and result in higher-based storms with somewhat weaker updrafts. Nevertheless, those storms that can become established should be discrete supercells for some period of time and pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Have added a small ENH for parts of northwest OK and south-central KS where 12z guidance has highest confidence of storm coverage. ...Northwest KS... Cold temperatures aloft and convergence near the surface low/front will result in a period of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. While this period of concern will likely only last 2-3 hours, thermodynamic profiles suggest a risk of hail in the stronger cells. ...West-central to North TX... It remains unclear how many dryline storms will form this afternoon over west-central TX. CAM guidance is quite diverse, but most models show only one or two storms. Any activity that does form would have a risk of large hail and damaging winds. After dark, a more consistent signal of robust convection occurs as the Pacific cold front and mid-level jet forcing overspreads the area. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a risk of hail and damaging winds into the overnight hours. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this period will be a major, synoptic-scale trough progressing eastward across the western CONUS. Moisture-channel imagery indicates a closed cyclone, centered over near-coastal southwestern OR, with troughing south- southeastward roughly along the CA/OR coastline then west of Baja. Ahead of that, a shortwave trough was evident over the lower Colorado River Valley region. The OR low will dissipate today while the basal shortwave trough pivots eastward across southern AZ to eastern NM, reaching near a GCK-CVS axis by 00Z. A new closed 500-mb low should form this evening over the southwestern KS vicinity, temporarily decelerating into erratic/cycloidal motion over the same area until early day-2. At the surface, a low was analyzed near LHX, with warm front across northern KS to near MKC. The low should move little through most of the day, remaining over the High Plains of eastern CO near the KS line as the mid/upper shortwave trough approaches. The warm front should pivot northwestward and merge with an initially separate surface trough over NE. The low should shift eastward over western KS tonight as a wave along a frontogenetic zone. By 12Z, the low should reach north-central KS, with cold front trailing across the TX Panhandle to east-central/northeastern NM, and warm front northeastward to the YKN region then eastward over northern IA. A dryline will become better-defined through the afternoon from a frontal intersection in the GLD-ITR area to southwestern KS, then across western OK to west-central/southwest TX, as moist advection occurs to its east and diurnal heating/mixing to its west. A wind shift and Pacific cold front, preceding the shortwave trough, will move across eastern NM today and west TX this evening, overtaking the dryline tonight. That combined boundary should shift eastward across OK and north/central TX, reaching near a BVO-PRX-SAT line then southwestward into northeastern Coahuila by 12Z tomorrow. ...Central/southern Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline this afternoon, some of which should become supercells offering large hail and locally damaging to severe gusts as they move obliquely across the narrow warm/moist sector. A couple tornadoes also are possible as well, especially late afternoon into early evening when a time window of overlap between surface-based inflow and LLJ-maximized hodographs may develop. Tonight, additional thunderstorms are possible as the dryline and Pacific front merge, with isolated potential for all hazards. Ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, strong height falls, along with left-exit region upper-jet forcing, midlevel DCVA, and accompanying large-scale ascent/cooling, should reach the KS/OK portion of the dryline around midafternoon. Those processes will further reduce already cold mid/upper-level temperatures, especially in areas between I-40 and I-70 before dark. A plume of elevated, non-severe convection/precip should form in moistening, low-level warm advection across parts of western OK into southern KS the next few hours and shift eastward over those states today. Behind that, and beneath the stronger cooling aloft, a narrow sector of diurnally heated moist-sector air should develop -- perhaps only 40-70 nm wide in OK. However, even limited insolation should erode capping considerably over OK and KS while midlevel lapse rates steepen, and moist advection offsets mixing enough to maintain or even increase boundary-layer moisture. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F already are common from north TX to portions of south-central KS, and should persist or increase somewhat. This will support 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE in that post-precip/pre-dryline plume. 40-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes are possible over parts of central/ southern KS and western OK, with very large hodographs (effective SRH 300-600 J/kg). As the stronger cooling aloft and frontal forcing extend over increasing moisture tonight, under nearly boundary-parallel mid/upper flow, a line of strong/locally severe convection may form between southern OK and the Edwards Plateau and move eastward. Activity should weaken late overnight to near the end of the period as it encounters a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer. ..Edwards/Grams.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this period will be a major, synoptic-scale trough progressing eastward across the western CONUS. Moisture-channel imagery indicates a closed cyclone, centered over near-coastal southwestern OR, with troughing south- southeastward roughly along the CA/OR coastline then west of Baja. Ahead of that, a shortwave trough was evident over the lower Colorado River Valley region. The OR low will dissipate today while the basal shortwave trough pivots eastward across southern AZ to eastern NM, reaching near a GCK-CVS axis by 00Z. A new closed 500-mb low should form this evening over the southwestern KS vicinity, temporarily decelerating into erratic/cycloidal motion over the same area until early day-2. At the surface, a low was analyzed near LHX, with warm front across northern KS to near MKC. The low should move little through most of the day, remaining over the High Plains of eastern CO near the KS line as the mid/upper shortwave trough approaches. The warm front should pivot northwestward and merge with an initially separate surface trough over NE. The low should shift eastward over western KS tonight as a wave along a frontogenetic zone. By 12Z, the low should reach north-central KS, with cold front trailing across the TX Panhandle to east-central/northeastern NM, and warm front northeastward to the YKN region then eastward over northern IA. A dryline will become better-defined through the afternoon from a frontal intersection in the GLD-ITR area to southwestern KS, then across western OK to west-central/southwest TX, as moist advection occurs to its east and diurnal heating/mixing to its west. A wind shift and Pacific cold front, preceding the shortwave trough, will move across eastern NM today and west TX this evening, overtaking the dryline tonight. That combined boundary should shift eastward across OK and north/central TX, reaching near a BVO-PRX-SAT line then southwestward into northeastern Coahuila by 12Z tomorrow. ...Central/southern Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline this afternoon, some of which should become supercells offering large hail and locally damaging to severe gusts as they move obliquely across the narrow warm/moist sector. A couple tornadoes also are possible as well, especially late afternoon into early evening when a time window of overlap between surface-based inflow and LLJ-maximized hodographs may develop. Tonight, additional thunderstorms are possible as the dryline and Pacific front merge, with isolated potential for all hazards. Ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, strong height falls, along with left-exit region upper-jet forcing, midlevel DCVA, and accompanying large-scale ascent/cooling, should reach the KS/OK portion of the dryline around midafternoon. Those processes will further reduce already cold mid/upper-level temperatures, especially in areas between I-40 and I-70 before dark. A plume of elevated, non-severe convection/precip should form in moistening, low-level warm advection across parts of western OK into southern KS the next few hours and shift eastward over those states today. Behind that, and beneath the stronger cooling aloft, a narrow sector of diurnally heated moist-sector air should develop -- perhaps only 40-70 nm wide in OK. However, even limited insolation should erode capping considerably over OK and KS while midlevel lapse rates steepen, and moist advection offsets mixing enough to maintain or even increase boundary-layer moisture. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F already are common from north TX to portions of south-central KS, and should persist or increase somewhat. This will support 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE in that post-precip/pre-dryline plume. 40-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes are possible over parts of central/ southern KS and western OK, with very large hodographs (effective SRH 300-600 J/kg). As the stronger cooling aloft and frontal forcing extend over increasing moisture tonight, under nearly boundary-parallel mid/upper flow, a line of strong/locally severe convection may form between southern OK and the Edwards Plateau and move eastward. Activity should weaken late overnight to near the end of the period as it encounters a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer. ..Edwards/Grams.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. ...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this period will be a major, synoptic-scale trough progressing eastward across the western CONUS. Moisture-channel imagery indicates a closed cyclone, centered over near-coastal southwestern OR, with troughing south- southeastward roughly along the CA/OR coastline then west of Baja. Ahead of that, a shortwave trough was evident over the lower Colorado River Valley region. The OR low will dissipate today while the basal shortwave trough pivots eastward across southern AZ to eastern NM, reaching near a GCK-CVS axis by 00Z. A new closed 500-mb low should form this evening over the southwestern KS vicinity, temporarily decelerating into erratic/cycloidal motion over the same area until early day-2. At the surface, a low was analyzed near LHX, with warm front across northern KS to near MKC. The low should move little through most of the day, remaining over the High Plains of eastern CO near the KS line as the mid/upper shortwave trough approaches. The warm front should pivot northwestward and merge with an initially separate surface trough over NE. The low should shift eastward over western KS tonight as a wave along a frontogenetic zone. By 12Z, the low should reach north-central KS, with cold front trailing across the TX Panhandle to east-central/northeastern NM, and warm front northeastward to the YKN region then eastward over northern IA. A dryline will become better-defined through the afternoon from a frontal intersection in the GLD-ITR area to southwestern KS, then across western OK to west-central/southwest TX, as moist advection occurs to its east and diurnal heating/mixing to its west. A wind shift and Pacific cold front, preceding the shortwave trough, will move across eastern NM today and west TX this evening, overtaking the dryline tonight. That combined boundary should shift eastward across OK and north/central TX, reaching near a BVO-PRX-SAT line then southwestward into northeastern Coahuila by 12Z tomorrow. ...Central/southern Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline this afternoon, some of which should become supercells offering large hail and locally damaging to severe gusts as they move obliquely across the narrow warm/moist sector. A couple tornadoes also are possible as well, especially late afternoon into early evening when a time window of overlap between surface-based inflow and LLJ-maximized hodographs may develop. Tonight, additional thunderstorms are possible as the dryline and Pacific front merge, with isolated potential for all hazards. Ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, strong height falls, along with left-exit region upper-jet forcing, midlevel DCVA, and accompanying large-scale ascent/cooling, should reach the KS/OK portion of the dryline around midafternoon. Those processes will further reduce already cold mid/upper-level temperatures, especially in areas between I-40 and I-70 before dark. A plume of elevated, non-severe convection/precip should form in moistening, low-level warm advection across parts of western OK into southern KS the next few hours and shift eastward over those states today. Behind that, and beneath the stronger cooling aloft, a narrow sector of diurnally heated moist-sector air should develop -- perhaps only 40-70 nm wide in OK. However, even limited insolation should erode capping considerably over OK and KS while midlevel lapse rates steepen, and moist advection offsets mixing enough to maintain or even increase boundary-layer moisture. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F already are common from north TX to portions of south-central KS, and should persist or increase somewhat. This will support 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE in that post-precip/pre-dryline plume. 40-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes are possible over parts of central/ southern KS and western OK, with very large hodographs (effective SRH 300-600 J/kg). As the stronger cooling aloft and frontal forcing extend over increasing moisture tonight, under nearly boundary-parallel mid/upper flow, a line of strong/locally severe convection may form between southern OK and the Edwards Plateau and move eastward. Activity should weaken late overnight to near the end of the period as it encounters a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer. ..Edwards/Grams.. 03/24/2024 Read more