Severe Storms

MD 0348 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0348 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 021658Z - 021900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...All severe hazards are possible this afternoon near an outflow boundary in eastern Kentucky. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Outflow from this mornings convection along the Ohio River has sagged into east-central Kentucky and has appeared to have stalled. With continued heating, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible by this afternoon. This outflow boundary should provide a focus for additional storm development this afternoon in addition to convection in central Kentucky moving eastward. Convection that can organize and interact with the outflow boundary, most likely to its south, will pose a risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Regional VAD winds show low-level hodograph curvature. This should improve with time as the 850 mb winds increase as the upper low deepens. Winds are more backed (i.e. better low-level shear) to the north of the outflow boundary, but destabilization is less certain or at least will take more time to occur. A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon, though the exact timing is not clear. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL... LAT...LON 36638418 36788477 37138467 37378432 37588399 38098385 38268377 38218348 37708253 37388253 36768355 36638418 Read more

MD 0347 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO...SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN KY...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MO...southern IL...western KY...and extreme southwestern IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021648Z - 021845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Once thunderstorms develop along/ahead of a cold front, they will quickly become severe, which will likely warrant watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Cu is gradually becoming more agitated along a surface wind shift line across southeastern MO, and convective initiation appears likely within the next hour or so. The airmass downstream has become at least weakly unstable, with surface temperatures warming into the mid 70s, with surface dewpoints also increasing into the mid to upper 60s. Corresponding MLCAPE generally ranges from 500-1000 J/kg at the moment, but continued daytime heating of this moist airmass should allow for additional destabilization through the afternoon. Very strong effective bulk shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with associated threat for large hail. Damaging winds will also be possible with any clusters that can consolidate along the wind shift line and spread eastward. The tornado threat remains somewhat unclear, particularly with northward extent into southern IL/IN where the airmass is still attempting to destabilize. Regardless, recent VWPs from KPAH/KVWX show ample low-level shear present to support updraft rotation and some risk for tornadoes with any supercells that can be sustained. Watch issuance will likely be needed once convective initiation appears imminent. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH... LAT...LON 36949026 38038938 38408876 38358802 37758770 37218770 36628898 36689000 36949026 Read more

MD 0345 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IL...EXTREME NORTHERN KY...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL...extreme northern KY...and southern/central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021558Z - 021830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradually increasing severe hail threat should exist with slowly intensifying thunderstorms across southern Indiana and vicinity. The damaging wind and tornado threat remain less clear, but some risk may eventually develop this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage over the past hour or so across southern IN and vicinity. This activity is largely tied to pronounced ascent associated with a very strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Most of these thunderstorms are currently elevated, and located to the north of an outflow boundary related to earlier morning convection now in WV. Still, visible satellite and surface observation trends show attempts at low-level moisture returning northward ahead of these thunderstorms and filtered daytime heating across parts of southern/central IN. While MUCAPE remains weak at the moment, instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to increase through the afternoon as a northern and southern-stream shortwave trough phase over the Midwest. This should support a threat for supercells capable of producing mainly severe hail initially. The risk for damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon will be dependent on whether sufficient low-level moistening/warming will occur to support truly surface-based convection. Regardless of this continued uncertainty with instability, the gradually increasing severe threat over the next few hours may eventually prompt watch issuance. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 37778803 37938850 38648844 39058804 39398743 40148624 40118503 39268486 38738537 37928666 37798721 37778803 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO FLORIDA... CORRECTED SLIGHT RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe storms -- capable of producing hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- will be possible on Wednesday from the Chesapeake Bay region to Florida. ...Chesapeake Bay area southeastward to FLorida... Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, ahead of an advancing cold front, from the Mid-Atlantic region southward to Florida. The convection will make steady eastward progress through the day, in tandem with the frontal advance, with storms moving off South Carolina and Georgia coasts through midday, but lingering across southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina into the afternoon. While instability will remain modest, a very favorable kinematic environment will remain in place, with respect to organized/severe storms. As such, potential for locally damaging winds and marginal hail is expected with stronger storms. Additional, a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with greatest potential expected from southeastern Virginia to northeastern South Carolina. Farther to the south over Florida, storms will move slowly eastward across northern and central portions of the Peninsula through the day. Sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear sufficient for organized convection. As a result, damaging wind gusts locally, along with potential for marginal hail, will likely linger through the day, shifting gradually southward before convection weakens toward evening. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 Read more