Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

MD 0350 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/northern Louisiana into parts of southern/central Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021758Z - 022000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Though uncertainty exists, a watch is possible for portions of central/southern Mississippi depending on overall trends in storm coverage and organization. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards. DISCUSSION...Storms in central Louisiana have steadily deepened over the past hour or two. These storms will continue northeastward into a moist airmass where temperatures are in the low 80s F. Additional storms are possible along the pre-frontal wind shift and later the cold front. The observed 17Z JAN sounding showed a very modest decrease in a warm layer at around 700 mb. Effective shear is sufficient for a few organized updrafts. Additional cooling aloft as the main synoptic trough approaches may also lead to some intensification by late afternoon. While the need for a watch is uncertain at this time, a watch for parts of central/southern Mississippi is possible should trends in convective coverage and organization warrant. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31708930 31468978 31269050 31079193 31319260 31689257 32079246 32409222 32789195 33339115 33669031 33518950 33028885 32118890 31708930 Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0078 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. The best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected from south-central NE southward across central KS during the afternoon. While elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels do not appear supportive of large fires at this time -- precluding fire-weather highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. The best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected from south-central NE southward across central KS during the afternoon. While elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels do not appear supportive of large fires at this time -- precluding fire-weather highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. The best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected from south-central NE southward across central KS during the afternoon. While elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels do not appear supportive of large fires at this time -- precluding fire-weather highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. The best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected from south-central NE southward across central KS during the afternoon. While elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels do not appear supportive of large fires at this time -- precluding fire-weather highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. The best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected from south-central NE southward across central KS during the afternoon. While elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels do not appear supportive of large fires at this time -- precluding fire-weather highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. The best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected from south-central NE southward across central KS during the afternoon. While elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels do not appear supportive of large fires at this time -- precluding fire-weather highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. The best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected from south-central NE southward across central KS during the afternoon. While elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels do not appear supportive of large fires at this time -- precluding fire-weather highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no additions were made with this update. The best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected from south-central NE southward across central KS during the afternoon. While elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions are possible here, fuels do not appear supportive of large fires at this time -- precluding fire-weather highlights. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more