Severe Storms

WW 308 TORNADO KS OK TX 252025Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southcentral Kansas Western and Central Oklahoma Extreme Northcentral Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorm development is expected to continue through this evening, with storms moving generally east across the watch area. The risk for strong, long-track tornadoes will exist, in addition to giant hail, possibly up to 5 inches in diameter. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 75 mph can also be expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Hutchinson KS to 60 miles west southwest of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 306...WW 307... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Bunting Read more

MD 0959 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 308...309... FOR NORTHERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0959 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...Northern Kansas into far southern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 308...309... Valid 260028Z - 260230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 308, 309 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern portions of WW 309, specifically across parts of north-central Kansas into far south-central Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a pair of supercells meandering across north-central KS have produced hail up to 1.5 inches per recent storm reports. 00 UTC surface observations show that moisture continues to stream north/northwest with dewpoints in the low 60s reaching the KS/NE border. Consequently, buoyancy continues to increase downstream of the ongoing storms and is expected to improve further heading into the mid/late evening hours as the surface low shifts east/northeast. Recent water-vapor imagery suggests lift associated with the primary synoptic wave is currently overspreading the Plains, and additional bubbling cumulus noted in GOES 1-minute imagery to the west of the ongoing supercells. These trends suggest that re-organization/intensification of ongoing convection, as well as new convective development, remains possible in the coming hours. VWPs across KS and OK are beginning to show signs of the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet, which should further increase low-level helicity heading into the late evening. Consequently, the potential for all severe hazards should continue across WW 309, but should be focused in the short-term (next couple of hours) across north-central KS with the ongoing convection. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38849660 38649679 38489932 38469977 38769992 39149989 39519963 39769937 40139724 40069700 39909681 39519661 39139657 38849660 Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0311 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0311 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0309 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 309 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 ..MOORE..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 309 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-017-027-029-041-051-053-061-089-105-111-113-115-117-123- 127-141-143-149-157-159-161-163-165-167-169-183-197-201- 260240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLIS ELLSWORTH GEARY JEWELL LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SMITH WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0309 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 309 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 ..MOORE..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 309 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-017-027-029-041-051-053-061-089-105-111-113-115-117-123- 127-141-143-149-157-159-161-163-165-167-169-183-197-201- 260240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLIS ELLSWORTH GEARY JEWELL LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SMITH WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0310 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 310 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE AKO TO 20 NW BUB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961 ..MOORE..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 310 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC125-260240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YUMA KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-260240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS NEC001-019-029-035-041-047-057-059-061-063-065-073-077-079-081- 083-085-087-093-099-111-121-125-129-137-143-145-163-169-175-181- 185-260240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0310 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 310 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE AKO TO 20 NW BUB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961 ..MOORE..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 310 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC125-260240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YUMA KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-260240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS NEC001-019-029-035-041-047-057-059-061-063-065-073-077-079-081- 083-085-087-093-099-111-121-125-129-137-143-145-163-169-175-181- 185-260240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR... Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat, including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the end of the period. Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. ...South FL... Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later tonight. ...Parts of MS/AL... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally 30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as MLCINH increases. ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/26/2024 Read more