Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

MD 0966 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 311... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0966 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast KS...Far North-Central OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 311... Valid 260507Z - 260630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 311 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes and very large hail possible across south-central/southeast Kansas and far north-central Oklahoma for at least the next hour. DISCUSSION...Despite limited surface-based buoyancy and the presence of convective inhibition, initially elevated convection has recently trended towards more of a surface-based character across south-central KS, likely aided intense low-level shear in the region. Recent ICT VAD sampled over 700 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. This intense low-level shear will likely aid the updrafts in overcoming the convective inhibition in place, potential allowing for the development of tornadic supercells. Very large hail up to 3" will be possible as well. ..Mosier.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36719648 37159748 37659687 37739646 37589523 36929582 36719648 Read more

MD 0965 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MO...FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0965 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern MO...Far North-Central/Northeast AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 260431Z - 260630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms may continue into central and eastern Missouri and north-central Arkansas, and convective trends will be monitored for potential downstream watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to progress eastward across northeast OK, eastern KS and western MO, supported by warm-air advection and modest ascent ahead of a shortwave trough over the central Plains. With the exception of the well-organized supercell moving through Rogers County OK, most of this activity has remained elevated and relatively disorganized. Even so, a downdraft associated with an initially elevated cell recently produced gusts from 50 to 60 kt at it moved through far northeast KS. A few updrafts have also pulsed up to severe thresholds. This general trend is expected to continue eastward, with the overall environment remaining supportive of sporadic large hail and/or damaging gusts, particularly over south-central/southeast MO and north-central AR where buoyancy will be greatest. Convective trends will be monitored for a potential watch downstream. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 38219303 38939233 38779089 37439034 36009045 35749171 36439315 38219303 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Gulf Coast states Monday into Monday night, with severe wind and hail the primary potential hazards. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow still appears likely to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific and western North America into and through the Memorial Day Holiday. This is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing across the northeastern Pacific, and building downstream ridging across the northern U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies. Farther downstream, several short wave perturbations are forecast to consolidate into more prominent larger-scale troughing across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One of the more prominent perturbations appears likely to turn northeast of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity during the day, accompanied by a relative compact, but deep, surface cyclone. In its wake, a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air likely will become increasing suppressed across the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, while a surface cold front advances into and across the Appalachians. Preceding the front, surface troughing is forecast to deepen to the east of the Blue Ridge during the day, beneath increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow, downstream of a short wave trough pivoting east-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley. ...Mid Atlantic.. Latest model output appears a bit weaker than prior guidance with regard to the wave emerging from the lower Ohio Valley, and a little more unclear concerning more subtle, perhaps convectively generated, perturbations preceding this wave. However, a seasonably moist boundary layer to the east of the deepening lee surface troughing is still forecast to become characterized by sizable CAPE as 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow noses northeast of the southern Appalachians. This is expected to contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized thunderstorm development, including supercell structures. It still appears possible that consolidating pre-cold frontal convection across and east of the Allegheny Mountains could intensify and organize further to the east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon, accompanied by potentially more widespread strong to severe wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Gulf States... Beneath a remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to contribute to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000+ J/kg by late Monday afternoon, along a corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Beneath modest, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, the initiation of vigorous thunderstorm development appears probable by late Monday afternoon. The latest NAM, in particular, is suggestive that upscale growth may contribute to a substantive surface cold pool and rear-inflow which may be accompanied by increasingly widespread strong to severe surface gusts across Alabama and adjacent portions of western Georgia, central and southern Mississippi. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased further across this region in later outlooks, as model spread decreases. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 Read more