Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms remain possible this evening into late tonight from parts of the central and northern High Plains into parts of the Corn Belt. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/IL... Strong to extreme buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z OAX sounding) remain in place across much of NE into western/central IA. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat for large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two through much of the evening. A nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may support an increase in storm coverage later tonight from eastern NE into parts of IA. Potential for organized MCS development remains uncertain, but any substantial storm clustering could result in a damaging wind and isolated hail threat spreading eastward overnight, potentially reaching parts of northern IL before the end of the period. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered supercells may persist through much of the evening across the northern High Plains, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear (as depicted in the 00Z GGW and UNR soundings). Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Some modest upscale growth is possible late tonight from eastern MT into ND, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across southern SK. While an isolated severe threat could continue across this region into the overnight hours, decreasing instability and increasing CINH should eventually result in a gradual weakening trend. ...Mid Atlantic... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening from eastern VA into NC. Localized wind damage remains possible with the strongest remaining storms, though the threat should eventually diminish as storms weaken with time and/or move offshore. ...WI/Lower MI vicinity... Some increase in storm coverage remains possible this evening across parts of WI and lower MI, in the vicinity of a cold front. Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/20/2025 Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE DAN TO 25 NE AVC TO 15 SSE DCA. ..BUNTING..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-200140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS NCC063-065-069-077-083-127-135-145-181-183-185-200140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX NASH ORANGE PERSON VANCE WAKE WARREN VAC057-073-097-101-103-115-119-133-159-193-595-620-200140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX GLOUCESTER KING AND QUEEN Read more

WW 526 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA CW 191920Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Northern into Northeastern North Carolina Central into Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to intensify through the afternoon and evolve into several clusters posing mainly a wind-damage risk (55-65 mph gusts). This activity will gradually shift eastward across the Watch and towards the coast by the early to mid evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of South Hill VA to 40 miles northeast of Norfolk VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 528 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-019-021-025-033-055-069-071-079-083-085-091-105-109- 200140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-033-041-087-089-200140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER SLOPE STARK SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-200140- SD Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 528 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-019-021-025-033-055-069-071-079-083-085-091-105-109- 200140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-033-041-087-089-200140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER SLOPE STARK SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-200140- SD Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE IML TO 35 SE LBF TO 25 SE BBW TO 25 N BUB TO 35 NW OFK. ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC047-063-071-073-085-183-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER HAYES WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE IML TO 35 SE LBF TO 25 SE BBW TO 25 N BUB TO 35 NW OFK. ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC047-063-071-073-085-183-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER HAYES WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE IML TO 35 SE LBF TO 25 SE BBW TO 25 N BUB TO 35 NW OFK. ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC047-063-071-073-085-183-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER HAYES WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE IML TO 35 SE LBF TO 25 SE BBW TO 25 N BUB TO 35 NW OFK. ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC047-063-071-073-085-183-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER HAYES WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE IML TO 35 SE LBF TO 25 SE BBW TO 25 N BUB TO 35 NW OFK. ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 527 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC047-063-071-073-085-183-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER HAYES WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 527 TORNADO NE 192015Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western into Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon and pose a risk for large to very large hail. The stronger storms will be supercells. The risk for tornadoes will begin late this afternoon and maximize during the evening. The risk for severe gusts will probably increase during the evening as one or two clusters possibly evolves. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Mullen NE to 10 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 526... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0529 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 529 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-065-089-123-137-141-147-153-163-179-183-193-200140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SMITH THOMAS NEC001-019-035-061-065-079-083-087-099-129-137-145-181-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FRANKLIN FURNAS HALL HARLAN HITCHCOCK KEARNEY NUCKOLLS PHELPS RED WILLOW WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0529 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 529 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 529 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-065-089-123-137-141-147-153-163-179-183-193-200140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SMITH THOMAS NEC001-019-035-061-065-079-083-087-099-129-137-145-181-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FRANKLIN FURNAS HALL HARLAN HITCHCOCK KEARNEY NUCKOLLS PHELPS RED WILLOW WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 1726 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska into far western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192218Z - 200015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Should storms develop, large hail and severe winds would be possible. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, but a watch is not anticipated in the short term. DISCUSSION...Storms that developed and showed brief intensity in northeast Nebraska have since weakened. Additional cumulus development has been noted along another surface boundary in east-central Nebraska. While strong heating and a very moist airmass has allowed MLCAPE to rise above 3000 J/kg, forcing for ascent remains nebulous. With the weak forcing and anvil cirrus from a cluster of supercells in west-central Nebraska moving in, whether additional storms can initiate this afternoon is not clear. Strong effective shear and the large buoyancy would support at least brief storm organization and potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. Watch issuance in the short term is not certain, but convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41919810 42179812 42479805 42709765 42549683 41979553 41239532 41049544 40969570 40969645 40979707 40989739 41089762 41299783 41919810 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1727 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1727 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Central and eastern Virginia...north-central and northeastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526... Valid 192250Z - 200015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue moving east/northeast across the watch area through early evening, posing a risk for strong/isolated damaging gusts. DISCUSSION...A couple clusters of thunderstorms continue to move generally east/northeast across central and eastern portions of the watch area at of 2250z. Moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000-locally 2500 J/kg) and around 25 kts of westerly shear will continue to support a loosely-organized multicell cluster storm mode, with isolated potential for strong/locally damaging gusts. A northward lifting outflow boundary in between the James River and middle Peninsula may serve to concentrate the potential for a longer-lived cluster of storms in this area in the next 2 to 3 hours. ..Bunting.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36297556 36127758 36237817 36427859 37327855 37937809 38217783 38447751 38367690 38287640 38127612 37767581 37087593 36297556 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1728 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 526... FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1728 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Central Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 526... Valid 192252Z - 200015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two remain possible. The greatest tornado risk will be with supercells near I-80 in south-central Nebraska this evening. DISCUSSION...Two areas of more intense activity are evident in regional radar imagery. A severe storm southeast of Ainsworth has a history of producing large hail. This storm will continue moving southeastward. A continued risk for large hail and severe winds will accompany this storm, though a pocket of cooler air is also noted in surface observations downstream. Another cluster of storms near and east of North Platte will continue southeast, roughly along I-80. The lead supercell has had a history of producing 2.75-3 inch measured hail. Activity to the west produced 1.75 inch hail in North Platte recently. Should the lead supercell maintain intensity, it would pose the greatest tornado risk. Low-level hodographs will marginally improve this evening, though the low-level jet response in southern Nebraska is not expected to be strong. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41010106 41400090 41690032 41729986 41789966 41979964 42149969 42689976 42859955 42719892 42609865 42179842 41879852 41629904 41149910 40769911 40379948 40189970 40149993 40310043 41010106 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1727 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1727 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Central and eastern Virginia...north-central and northeastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526... Valid 192250Z - 200015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue moving east/northeast across the watch area through early evening, posing a risk for strong/isolated damaging gusts. DISCUSSION...A couple clusters of thunderstorms continue to move generally east/northeast across central and eastern portions of the watch area at of 2250z. Moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000-locally 2500 J/kg) and around 25 kts of westerly shear will continue to support a loosely-organized multicell cluster storm mode, with isolated potential for strong/locally damaging gusts. A northward lifting outflow boundary in between the James River and middle Peninsula may serve to concentrate the potential for a longer-lived cluster of storms in this area in the next 2 to 3 hours. ..Bunting.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36297556 36127758 36237817 36427859 37327855 37937809 38217783 38447751 38367690 38287640 38127612 37767581 37087593 36297556 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1728 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 526... FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1728 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Central Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 526... Valid 192252Z - 200015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two remain possible. The greatest tornado risk will be with supercells near I-80 in south-central Nebraska this evening. DISCUSSION...Two areas of more intense activity are evident in regional radar imagery. A severe storm southeast of Ainsworth has a history of producing large hail. This storm will continue moving southeastward. A continued risk for large hail and severe winds will accompany this storm, though a pocket of cooler air is also noted in surface observations downstream. Another cluster of storms near and east of North Platte will continue southeast, roughly along I-80. The lead supercell has had a history of producing 2.75-3 inch measured hail. Activity to the west produced 1.75 inch hail in North Platte recently. Should the lead supercell maintain intensity, it would pose the greatest tornado risk. Low-level hodographs will marginally improve this evening, though the low-level jet response in southern Nebraska is not expected to be strong. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41010106 41400090 41690032 41729986 41789966 41979964 42149969 42689976 42859955 42719892 42609865 42179842 41879852 41629904 41149910 40769911 40379948 40189970 40149993 40310043 41010106 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more