Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE TENNEESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms appear likely across parts of the northern Great Plains and parts of the Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard Monday through Monday night. ...MT into the northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest on Monday, with an upper ridge over the Plains. Moderate southwest to west winds aloft will exist over MT and into ND and northern MN around the periphery of the ridge, with midlevel temperatures remaining relatively cool. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains with strong heating, and southeast winds around a Great Lakes high will maintain a westerly push of moist air with 70s F dewpoints across the Corn Belt. Farther northwest, lower 60s F dewpoints will be common into much of eastern MT. This will result in strong instability NE/IA into the Dakotas, with lack of large-scale ascent the primary mitigating factor to a larger area of severe potential. That said, it is likely that at least isolated severe storms develop over western NE into the Dakotas where the air mass gets uncapped. Conditionally, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Farther west into MT, this region is also likely to see at least a few severe storms. Given the upper ridge, storm coverage and potential capping into the evening may mitigate the overall threat. As such, will maintain a broad area of 5% probabilities at this time, though higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks cycles as predictability increases. ...TN Valley southeastward to the SC Coast... A weak low is forecast over SC during the afternoon as a cold front pushes south across VA and NC. The air mass across the region will remain very moist, with pockets of stronger instability. Scattered storms are likely within the instability axis, possibly in association with residual boundaries from the previous night's convection over the OH Valley. Otherwise, sufficient surface convergence and terrain effects should support widely scattered development from the southern Appalachians toward the SC Coast, with locally strong to damaging downbursts in the high PWAT environment. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 19 19:23:10 UTC 2025.

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0526 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 19 17:50:01 UTC 2025.

MD 1720 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Virginia and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191708Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing off the southern Appalachians will gradually intensify as they spread east through late afternoon. The potential for damaging winds will increase in tandem with thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Watch issuance is possible this afternoon to address this concern. DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development is underway per recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends within the southern Appalachians/Blue Ridge Mountains and in proximity to a diffuse thermal low across central/northern NC. Thunderstorm coverage should increase through mid-afternoon as daytime heating continues to erode lingering MLCIN and near-surface parcels begin to reach their convective temperatures. Regional 12z soundings sampled slightly weaker mid-level flow compared to yesterday (15-25 knots), so slower eastward propagation is anticipated. However, this will allow downstream temperatures to warm well into the 90s with MLCAPE increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg. Convection should undergo steady intensification as a mix of discrete cells and clusters migrate into, or develop within, the CAPE reservoir across northern NC and much of VA. 7 to 8 C/km lapse rates within the 0-2 km layer, coupled with theta-e deficits on the order of 25 K and PWAT values near 2 inches, will promote strong to severe downburst winds associated with deeper convective cores. Sporadic damaging/severe wind gusts are anticipated, and a few more focused swaths of damaging winds are possible if/when loosely-organized, cold pool-driven clusters emerge. Recent high-res guidance suggests this appears most probable across central to eastern VA later this afternoon around peak heating. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible as the severe threat becomes more widespread. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 37377619 37027616 36787625 36497650 36207684 35967729 35707783 35567825 35507902 35527968 35558009 35698040 35938074 36138089 36388095 36598089 38767844 38877797 38897739 38737703 38447663 37917634 37377619 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered severe hail and wind are also possible over the central Dakotas. ...Northeast... An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with corridors of damaging gusts as well. ...Dakotas... A broad upper trough will remain from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with minor shortwave ridging over the northern Plains where midlevel temperatures will still remain cool. A surface trough will develop from southeast MT into the western SD/NE/KS, where heating will be strong. Moderate uncapped instability and moist southeast winds east of the surface trough should yield clusters of storms developing from central ND into SD, moving southeastward through evening. Large hail is likely, along with aggregating/severe outflow/wind. ...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Although well south of the upper trough, modest west/northwest flow aloft will remain over the Midwest and OH Valley, near a stalled front with 70s F dewpoints. Tall/moist CAPE profiles with high PWAT suggest sporadic multicelluar clusters of storms will be possible from southeast IA into KY/WV during the afternoon. Localized wind damage will be possible. Higher probability corridors cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases on the mesoscale. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2025 Read more