Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night, posing a risk for severe wind and hail. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge centered on Mid MS Valley, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will be in place from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest -- downstream of a persistent midlevel trough over the Northwest. Several embedded impulses should advance through the belt of west-southwesterlies, while a surface low moves slowly eastward across the Dakotas. Downstream of the surface low, middle/upper 70s dewpoints beneath a steep midlevel lapse rate plume will contribute to a corridor of extreme surface-based buoyancy along a warm-front type feature draped across the Upper Midwest. While subtle forcing for ascent and potential early-day convection cast uncertainty on the overall convective scenario here, a broad/strong low-level jet (and related warm-air advection), the extreme buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear will support robust/organized storms capable of producing swaths of severe wind and hail. Farther west over eastern MT into the Dakotas, subtle midlevel height falls atop seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture will also favor strong to severe storms, with a risk of severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Southeast... A very high PW air mass will be in place across the Southeast, where diurnal heating will contribute to moderate surface-based buoyancy. As a weak cold front impinges on this air mass during the afternoon, modestly enhanced midlevel northerly flow will support loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night, posing a risk for severe wind and hail. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge centered on Mid MS Valley, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will be in place from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest -- downstream of a persistent midlevel trough over the Northwest. Several embedded impulses should advance through the belt of west-southwesterlies, while a surface low moves slowly eastward across the Dakotas. Downstream of the surface low, middle/upper 70s dewpoints beneath a steep midlevel lapse rate plume will contribute to a corridor of extreme surface-based buoyancy along a warm-front type feature draped across the Upper Midwest. While subtle forcing for ascent and potential early-day convection cast uncertainty on the overall convective scenario here, a broad/strong low-level jet (and related warm-air advection), the extreme buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear will support robust/organized storms capable of producing swaths of severe wind and hail. Farther west over eastern MT into the Dakotas, subtle midlevel height falls atop seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture will also favor strong to severe storms, with a risk of severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Southeast... A very high PW air mass will be in place across the Southeast, where diurnal heating will contribute to moderate surface-based buoyancy. As a weak cold front impinges on this air mass during the afternoon, modestly enhanced midlevel northerly flow will support loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night, posing a risk for severe wind and hail. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive midlevel ridge centered on Mid MS Valley, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will be in place from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest -- downstream of a persistent midlevel trough over the Northwest. Several embedded impulses should advance through the belt of west-southwesterlies, while a surface low moves slowly eastward across the Dakotas. Downstream of the surface low, middle/upper 70s dewpoints beneath a steep midlevel lapse rate plume will contribute to a corridor of extreme surface-based buoyancy along a warm-front type feature draped across the Upper Midwest. While subtle forcing for ascent and potential early-day convection cast uncertainty on the overall convective scenario here, a broad/strong low-level jet (and related warm-air advection), the extreme buoyancy, and strong deep-layer shear will support robust/organized storms capable of producing swaths of severe wind and hail. Farther west over eastern MT into the Dakotas, subtle midlevel height falls atop seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture will also favor strong to severe storms, with a risk of severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Southeast... A very high PW air mass will be in place across the Southeast, where diurnal heating will contribute to moderate surface-based buoyancy. As a weak cold front impinges on this air mass during the afternoon, modestly enhanced midlevel northerly flow will support loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging winds. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 20 17:35:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Great Plains. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. ...Northern Plains... Downstream of a slow-moving midlevel trough over the Northwest, a related southwesterly jet streak will emerge over the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. Related forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm development within a deeply mixed air mass over western/central MT. As storms track eastward into an increasingly moist and unstable air mass over central/eastern MT, around 50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and small organized clusters. Any longer-lived storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Ohio Valley and the Southeast... Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly flow will be in place from the OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast. Here, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture will contribute to an environment favorable for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across west-central Nevada. Overall, PWs around 0.75" and generally slow storm motions around 5-10 kts should promote wetting rainfall. However, strikes outside of the core may promote new starts, given critically dry fuels. Overall, this risk looks to remain too isolated for inclusion of a dry thunderstorm area. No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook Elevated area. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to sag into northern California and the northern Great Basin today. A surface trough will develop from the Northwest into the central Great Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible from northern Nevada into the Snake River Plain and western Wyoming. RH will be lowest in Nevada where 10-20% is expected. Farther north and east, 15-20% will be more common. Surface wind speeds will generally range from 15-20 mph in most locations. With some terrain enhancement in the Snake River Plain, there is some potential for briefly stronger winds. This location has a greater probability for sustained critical conditions, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest it will remain quite localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across west-central Nevada. Overall, PWs around 0.75" and generally slow storm motions around 5-10 kts should promote wetting rainfall. However, strikes outside of the core may promote new starts, given critically dry fuels. Overall, this risk looks to remain too isolated for inclusion of a dry thunderstorm area. No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook Elevated area. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to sag into northern California and the northern Great Basin today. A surface trough will develop from the Northwest into the central Great Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible from northern Nevada into the Snake River Plain and western Wyoming. RH will be lowest in Nevada where 10-20% is expected. Farther north and east, 15-20% will be more common. Surface wind speeds will generally range from 15-20 mph in most locations. With some terrain enhancement in the Snake River Plain, there is some potential for briefly stronger winds. This location has a greater probability for sustained critical conditions, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest it will remain quite localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across west-central Nevada. Overall, PWs around 0.75" and generally slow storm motions around 5-10 kts should promote wetting rainfall. However, strikes outside of the core may promote new starts, given critically dry fuels. Overall, this risk looks to remain too isolated for inclusion of a dry thunderstorm area. No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook Elevated area. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to sag into northern California and the northern Great Basin today. A surface trough will develop from the Northwest into the central Great Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible from northern Nevada into the Snake River Plain and western Wyoming. RH will be lowest in Nevada where 10-20% is expected. Farther north and east, 15-20% will be more common. Surface wind speeds will generally range from 15-20 mph in most locations. With some terrain enhancement in the Snake River Plain, there is some potential for briefly stronger winds. This location has a greater probability for sustained critical conditions, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest it will remain quite localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across west-central Nevada. Overall, PWs around 0.75" and generally slow storm motions around 5-10 kts should promote wetting rainfall. However, strikes outside of the core may promote new starts, given critically dry fuels. Overall, this risk looks to remain too isolated for inclusion of a dry thunderstorm area. No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook Elevated area. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to sag into northern California and the northern Great Basin today. A surface trough will develop from the Northwest into the central Great Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible from northern Nevada into the Snake River Plain and western Wyoming. RH will be lowest in Nevada where 10-20% is expected. Farther north and east, 15-20% will be more common. Surface wind speeds will generally range from 15-20 mph in most locations. With some terrain enhancement in the Snake River Plain, there is some potential for briefly stronger winds. This location has a greater probability for sustained critical conditions, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest it will remain quite localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across west-central Nevada. Overall, PWs around 0.75" and generally slow storm motions around 5-10 kts should promote wetting rainfall. However, strikes outside of the core may promote new starts, given critically dry fuels. Overall, this risk looks to remain too isolated for inclusion of a dry thunderstorm area. No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook Elevated area. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to sag into northern California and the northern Great Basin today. A surface trough will develop from the Northwest into the central Great Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible from northern Nevada into the Snake River Plain and western Wyoming. RH will be lowest in Nevada where 10-20% is expected. Farther north and east, 15-20% will be more common. Surface wind speeds will generally range from 15-20 mph in most locations. With some terrain enhancement in the Snake River Plain, there is some potential for briefly stronger winds. This location has a greater probability for sustained critical conditions, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest it will remain quite localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across west-central Nevada. Overall, PWs around 0.75" and generally slow storm motions around 5-10 kts should promote wetting rainfall. However, strikes outside of the core may promote new starts, given critically dry fuels. Overall, this risk looks to remain too isolated for inclusion of a dry thunderstorm area. No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook Elevated area. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to sag into northern California and the northern Great Basin today. A surface trough will develop from the Northwest into the central Great Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible from northern Nevada into the Snake River Plain and western Wyoming. RH will be lowest in Nevada where 10-20% is expected. Farther north and east, 15-20% will be more common. Surface wind speeds will generally range from 15-20 mph in most locations. With some terrain enhancement in the Snake River Plain, there is some potential for briefly stronger winds. This location has a greater probability for sustained critical conditions, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest it will remain quite localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across west-central Nevada. Overall, PWs around 0.75" and generally slow storm motions around 5-10 kts should promote wetting rainfall. However, strikes outside of the core may promote new starts, given critically dry fuels. Overall, this risk looks to remain too isolated for inclusion of a dry thunderstorm area. No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook Elevated area. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will begin to sag into northern California and the northern Great Basin today. A surface trough will develop from the Northwest into the central Great Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible from northern Nevada into the Snake River Plain and western Wyoming. RH will be lowest in Nevada where 10-20% is expected. Farther north and east, 15-20% will be more common. Surface wind speeds will generally range from 15-20 mph in most locations. With some terrain enhancement in the Snake River Plain, there is some potential for briefly stronger winds. This location has a greater probability for sustained critical conditions, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest it will remain quite localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more