Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-202240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC031-202240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-202240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH Read more

WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-202240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC031-202240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-202240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH Read more

MD 1737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1737 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Areas affected...southern Indiana and Ohio...northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201835Z - 202130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms producing locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out later this afternoon from southern Indiana across southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky. DISCUSSION...An MCV continues to move rapidly eastward across northern IN, well north of a stalled front draped across southern IL/IN and southwest OH. Meanwhile, a very moist air mass remains near this boundary, with heating occurring upstream across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. While the entire warm sector is unstable, areas near the front exist beneath slightly stronger deep-layer mean winds, on the southern periphery of the larger scale trough (and MCV) influence. Visible imagery show increasing CU fields from southern IN into northern and eastern KY, and scattered storms are likely within this zone. Locally strong downbursts will be possible, but any more substantial wind threat would be conditional on a large cluster of storms producing outflow, and tracking east/southeast near the boundary. At this time, it appears a watch will not be necessary. ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 39608450 39658393 39708357 39688308 39568274 39208236 38848232 38338246 38068281 37818335 37928396 38148477 38418645 38568698 38918712 39298693 39478664 39558561 39608450 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0530 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA... The Critical area across northwest Nevada was expanded to include portions of north-central Nevada with this update. Latest ensemble guidance suggests high probabilities that Critical conditions will continue into this region on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will continue to dig southward through the day on Monday. Some increase in the mid-level jet is expected to occur from northwest Nevada into the northern Rockies. A surface low will deepen in the northern Great Basin. ...Central/northern Great Basin into western Wyoming... A broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across these regions. Surface winds will reach 15-20 mph in most locations, though areas of higher speeds are possible in terrain-favored areas. Single digit RH is possible in parts of central/northern Nevada, but 15-20% will be more common elsewhere. Critical conditions are expected along the Sierra Front in northwest Nevada. Here, the mid-level jet will enhance winds aloft during the afternoon. While the surface low will not be overly deep, the combination of these factors will support winds around 20 mph near the terrain. Gusts to around 30 mph are also possible. There is some potential for high level clouds to limit RH reductions. Even with some of these marginal factors, wind speeds should be sufficient to promote rapid fire spread in fuels that are very dry (ERCs above 90th percentile). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more