Severe Storms

MD 1165 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391... FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391... Valid 042155Z - 042330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391 continues. SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts up to 60-65 mph and localized instances of marginally severe hail near 0.75-1.25" in diameter may continue to accompany a linear complex of thunderstorms through this evening. DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery show an MCS progressing east-southeastward across portions of southern LA and southern MS. A moderately unstable air mass remains in place ahead of this system, where diurnal heating has resulted in surface temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and 90s, with dewpoints generally in the mid 70s. Recent trends from the POE VAD profiler indicate westerly 0-3 km shear has increased to around 50 kt over the past 30 minutes behind the system. This may support an increasing opportunity for bowing segments, and damaging wind gusts, oriented north-south on the eastern flank of the complex, and a general eastward progression into south-central/southeastern MS over the next 1-2 hours. In addition, brief instances of marginally severe hail will be possible within any of the more robust updrafts. ..Barnes.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 33039059 32149090 31169135 31079175 30849310 30589338 29999303 29869260 29989164 30309029 31098976 31708971 32448956 33068991 33129021 33039059 Read more

WW 0390 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 390 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 390 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-079-085-095-105-111-113-115- 117-127-131-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-173-197-201-042340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUTLER CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY HARVEY JACKSON KINGMAN LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO REPUBLIC RICE RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1164 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 042113Z - 042315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm initiation is expected within the next 1-2 hours across portions of central Oklahoma. Large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter, wind gusts exceeding 65-75 mph, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery trends indicate air mass modification is continuing across north central and central OK late this afternoon. A developing cumulus field is apparent near a mesolow just north of I-40 and Clinton, OK. A surface trough and dryline extend southward from this low into portions of southwestern OK. An axis of extreme instability has developed within southeasterly surface winds on the western edge of a residual cold pool from earlier this morning. As destabilization continues, and cooler mid-level temps accompany a mid-level trough slowly progressing eastward over the northern half of OK early this evening, rapid thunderstorm development is expected near the surface low and convergence zones. Although very modest mid to upper flow should limit persistent, discrete storm organization, a few transient discrete supercells will remain possible via veering and increasing flow within the lowest 4 km of the troposphere. In addition, very large CAPE and steep lapse rates (~8.5 C/km) within the hail growth zone could support large hail with any of the discrete cells. Furthermore, localized enhanced 0-1 km SRH is expected near and south of I-40 where surface 10-15 kt winds will likely remained backed increasing the potential for a tornado or two before storms begin to build upscale later this evening. Severe, damaging winds will become more likely by this time. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon. ..Barnes/Smith.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 35209946 34439904 34199857 34059772 34469702 34749656 35309646 36019726 36959731 37039800 36959886 35739964 35209946 Read more

WW 0391 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 391 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW LCH TO 35 ENE LFT TO 50 NW MSY TO 25 NNE MCB TO 40 SSE GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165 ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 391 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-005-045-047-055-063-099-103-105-113-117-042340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ASCENSION IBERIA IBERVILLE LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON ST. MARTIN ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA VERMILION WASHINGTON MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-073-075-077-091-101-109-113-121-123- 127-129-147-042340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PEARL RIVER PIKE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL Read more

WW 0392 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 392 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 392 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-047-049-051- 053-063-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-093-095-099-103-109- 119-123-125-133-137-149-042340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MAJOR MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE RWF TO 30 SW STC TO 20 NE INL. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-059-065-085-095-115-137-141-143-171-042340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON ISANTI KANABEC MCLEOD MILLE LACS PINE ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE SIBLEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0392 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0392 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0391 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 391 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW LCH TO 35 ESE POE TO 35 NNW LFT TO 40 S HEZ TO 10 E HEZ TO 20 E HEZ TO 60 NNE HEZ. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 391 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-005-033-037-045-047-053-055-063-077-091-097-099-105- 113-117-121-125-042240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN TANGIPAHOA VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-065-067-073-075-077-085-089- 091-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-042240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS Read more

WW 0390 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 390 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 390 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-079-085-095-105-111-113-115- 117-127-131-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-173-197-201-042240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUTLER CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY HARVEY JACKSON KINGMAN LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO REPUBLIC RICE RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW RWF TO 25 W STC TO 15 NW INL. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-035-059-061-065-085-093-095-115-137-141-143-171- 042240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON CROW WING ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS PINE ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE SIBLEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0390 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 390 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 390 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-079-085-095-105-111-113-115- 117-127-131-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-173-197-201-042140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUTLER CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY HARVEY JACKSON KINGMAN LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO REPUBLIC RICE RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041840Z - 042115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue to evolve into an intensifying sustained supercell, then upscale growing and organizing thunderstorm cluster through 3-5 PM CDT. A severe weather watch may be required within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...South of the primary trough within the stronger westerlies overspreading the northern Great Plains, a perturbation within weaker westerlies to the lee of the southern Rockies is in the process of overspreading the western Kansas through Texas Panhandle vicinity. Just ahead of this feature, a persistent cluster of developing thunderstorms (now slowly progressing east of the Russell KS vicinity) has been focused near the northern periphery of a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the southern Great Plains, likely aided by warm advection near the 700 mb level. Beneath this regime, insolation within a boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content is becoming moderate to strongly unstable, with CAPE increasing in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg. It appears that the storms near Russell are undergoing a period of significant intensification with increasing inflow of this air now underway. With the continued eastward progression of the upstream impulse, further suppression of inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer may allow for a substantive further increase and upscale growth of convection through the 20-22Z time frame. Although convection is embedded within weak westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10-20 kt, modest shear due to veering wind fields with height in lower to mid-levels may be sufficient to support a sustained intensifying supercell structure with increasing risk for large hail and some potential for a brief tornado. Eventually upscale growth may be accompanied by the evolution of a notable mesoscale convective vortex, strengthening mid-level rear inflow and increasing potential for strong to severe gusts with downward mixing to the surface. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38110080 38739948 39799774 39629620 37709607 36799804 37150028 38110080 Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-021-035-059-061-065-067-071-085-093-095-097-129-141- 143-145-153-171-042140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CASS CROW WING ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC KANDIYOHI KOOCHICHING MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON RENVILLE SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS TODD WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more