Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 268... FOR CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...Central Michigan and far northern Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268... Valid 202349Z - 210115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268 continues. SUMMARY...A bowing line segment or two capable of producing severe wind gusts near 60-70 mph remains possible across central MI. Further south into Lower MI, a few thunderstorms could produce marginally severe hail around 0.75 to 1.25" in diameter. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms associated with an MCV moving east across central MI and northern IN is expected to maintain localized intensity through this evening. Although buoyancy across central MI is fairly limited and convective inhibition will continue to increase through nightfall, easterly surface flow downstream should continue to support a relatively balanced convergence zone. In addition, low-level shear vectors orthogonal to the line and magnitudes east of the MCV's center point may be favorable for a mesovortex or two. However, LCLs downstream of the line become increasingly unfavorable for tornadogenesis. ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 43638557 44158539 44128496 44168434 43818408 43408416 43288411 42738431 42548436 42168465 42158619 42558595 43638557 Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...Northwestern Iowa and far southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202254Z - 210100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the next 1-2 hours across portions of northwestern/northern IA and southern MN. Large hail up to 1 to 1.75 inches in diameter and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph may accompany a few of the thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery indicates some upstream mid-level ascent, likely via PCVA, is beginning to impact locations east of the MO river valley over a stationary boundary. Elevated showers have developed over northern NE, and the cumulus field along and just north of the boundary is becoming agitated across northwestern IA and southern MN. The convective environment within this region is characterized by moderate instability, modest deep layer shear, and steep mid level lapse rates. As the evening progresses, a few organized updrafts may manage to develop with a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. There is some uncertainty regarding severe thunderstorm coverage across this region, however, so trends will be watched for a possible weather watch. ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42149452 42029497 41939575 42029627 42739661 43419632 43809554 44109495 44349428 44459386 44389296 44469241 44259207 43809196 42869309 42499374 42149452 Read more