Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW LBF TO 15 NW MHN TO 25 NNW VTN TO 10 NNW 9V9 TO 20 WNW HON. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-031-051-089-091-103-117-149-171-170740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY DIXON HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS SDC003-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-079-083-085- 087-097-099-101-111-121-123-125-135-170740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD LAKE LINCOLN LYMAN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TODD TRIPP TURNER YANKTON Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

MD 1296 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426... FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN NE...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...EXTREME NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Western/northern NE...south-central/southeast SD...southwest MN...extreme northwest IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426... Valid 170434Z - 170600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for hail and perhaps isolated strong/severe gusts will continue overnight. DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection that earlier erupted across northern NE/southern SD has evolved into an elongated storm cluster with occasional embedded elevated supercells. Some recent intensification has also been noted with a storm cluster moving into the southeast part of the NE Panhandle from northeast CO. Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support occasionally organized storms into the overnight hours. A strong low-level jet will continue to support rather widespread storm coverage, with a tendency toward a cluster and perhaps eventually a linear mode. This mode evolution may not be ideal for a more organized hail threat, but very steep midlevel lapse rates will result in occasional large-hail potential with the stronger embedded cells. Isolated strong to severe gusts will also be possible, especially if organized upscale growth occurs. Some severe threat may spread into southern MN and far northwest IA with time, and eventual downstream watch issuance is possible if observational trends support maintenance of an organized severe-thunderstorm threat. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42570349 43619957 44339729 45089478 44629420 44009395 42749751 41830029 41140165 41080267 41210340 42570349 Read more