Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 274 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 274 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC085-129-133-155-165-210740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON MILLS MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY KSC147-183-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS SMITH NEC001-003-011-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-041-047-053-055-059- 061-065-067-071-073-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-119-121- 125-129-131-137-139-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-167-169-173-175- 177-179-181-183-185-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE Read more

WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 274 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 274 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC085-129-133-155-165-210740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON MILLS MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY KSC147-183-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS SMITH NEC001-003-011-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-041-047-053-055-059- 061-065-067-071-073-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-119-121- 125-129-131-137-139-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-167-169-173-175- 177-179-181-183-185-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE Read more

WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 274 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 274 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC085-129-133-155-165-210740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON MILLS MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY KSC147-183-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS SMITH NEC001-003-011-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-041-047-053-055-059- 061-065-067-071-073-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-119-121- 125-129-131-137-139-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-167-169-173-175- 177-179-181-183-185-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE Read more

WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ITR TO 30 SSE IML TO 10 ESE IML TO 35 ESE LBF. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-137-153-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON RAWLINS NEC063-085-087-145-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ITR TO 30 SSE IML TO 10 ESE IML TO 35 ESE LBF. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-137-153-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON RAWLINS NEC063-085-087-145-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ITR TO 30 SSE IML TO 10 ESE IML TO 35 ESE LBF. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-137-153-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON RAWLINS NEC063-085-087-145-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ITR TO 30 SSE IML TO 10 ESE IML TO 35 ESE LBF. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-137-153-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON RAWLINS NEC063-085-087-145-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ITR TO 30 SSE IML TO 10 ESE IML TO 35 ESE LBF. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-137-153-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON RAWLINS NEC063-085-087-145-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ITR TO 30 SSE IML TO 10 ESE IML TO 35 ESE LBF. ..GOSS..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 273 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-137-153-210740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON RAWLINS NEC063-085-087-145-210740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 273 TORNADO CO KS NE 210155Z - 210800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Colorado Extreme northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 855 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Clusters of intensifying supercells across northeast Colorado will continue eastward into Kansas/Nebraska with some potential for upscale growth tonight. The storm environment will favor all significant hazards of all types (tornadoes capable of EF2 damage, very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, and severe outflow winds up to 80 mph). The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Imperial NE to 35 miles northeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 268...WW 269...WW 270...WW 271...WW 272... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The highest concentration of damaging gusts and large to very large hail is expected from north Texas to the Missouri Bootheel vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. Meanwhile, convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from the Day 1/Tue period will develop east/northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes area in broad southwesterly deep-layer flow. Further south, broad, enhanced southwesterly flow will persist over the southern Plains to the Mid-South. One or more shortwave impulses are expected to float through this area ahead of a deepening large-scale western U.S. upper trough. At the surface, an occluding low near the MN/Ontario border will lift north through the period, with a weak surface trough extending into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. The northern extent of a surface cold front will progress eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity. Meanwhile, the front will mainly stall from IN/southern IL into central OK and northwest TX. A dryline will move east into central TX. These boundaries will become the focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ...Texas to Southern IL... A moisture-rich boundary layer will be present, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Atop this moist boundary layer, steep midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km are forecast. This will result in strong to extreme instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells, with modestly enlarged low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 3 km. Significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible with initial supercell development. How long semi-discrete supercells will be maintained is a bit uncertain. Upscale development into bowing segments will likely occur, resulting in an increasing damaging wind risk with time. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to increase by early evening. This will support increasing 0-1 km SRH (to around 200 m2/s2) and a few tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out, especially over parts of AR into north Texas. ...IN/KY to the Lower Great Lakes... Forcing for ascent across the region will mainly be provided by any MCVs from remnant Day 1/Tue convection floating through southwesterly flow, and the eastward-advancing cold front. A moist airmass with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s will be present over IN/OH/KY, with low/mid 60s extending northeast into NY/PA and vicinity. Strong heating and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization during the late morning/afternoon. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells, though decreasing with northeast extent into eastern NY and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail will be possible with thunderstorms into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The highest concentration of damaging gusts and large to very large hail is expected from north Texas to the Missouri Bootheel vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. Meanwhile, convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from the Day 1/Tue period will develop east/northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes area in broad southwesterly deep-layer flow. Further south, broad, enhanced southwesterly flow will persist over the southern Plains to the Mid-South. One or more shortwave impulses are expected to float through this area ahead of a deepening large-scale western U.S. upper trough. At the surface, an occluding low near the MN/Ontario border will lift north through the period, with a weak surface trough extending into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. The northern extent of a surface cold front will progress eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity. Meanwhile, the front will mainly stall from IN/southern IL into central OK and northwest TX. A dryline will move east into central TX. These boundaries will become the focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ...Texas to Southern IL... A moisture-rich boundary layer will be present, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Atop this moist boundary layer, steep midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km are forecast. This will result in strong to extreme instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells, with modestly enlarged low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 3 km. Significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible with initial supercell development. How long semi-discrete supercells will be maintained is a bit uncertain. Upscale development into bowing segments will likely occur, resulting in an increasing damaging wind risk with time. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to increase by early evening. This will support increasing 0-1 km SRH (to around 200 m2/s2) and a few tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out, especially over parts of AR into north Texas. ...IN/KY to the Lower Great Lakes... Forcing for ascent across the region will mainly be provided by any MCVs from remnant Day 1/Tue convection floating through southwesterly flow, and the eastward-advancing cold front. A moist airmass with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s will be present over IN/OH/KY, with low/mid 60s extending northeast into NY/PA and vicinity. Strong heating and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization during the late morning/afternoon. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells, though decreasing with northeast extent into eastern NY and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail will be possible with thunderstorms into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The highest concentration of damaging gusts and large to very large hail is expected from north Texas to the Missouri Bootheel vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. Meanwhile, convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from the Day 1/Tue period will develop east/northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes area in broad southwesterly deep-layer flow. Further south, broad, enhanced southwesterly flow will persist over the southern Plains to the Mid-South. One or more shortwave impulses are expected to float through this area ahead of a deepening large-scale western U.S. upper trough. At the surface, an occluding low near the MN/Ontario border will lift north through the period, with a weak surface trough extending into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. The northern extent of a surface cold front will progress eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity. Meanwhile, the front will mainly stall from IN/southern IL into central OK and northwest TX. A dryline will move east into central TX. These boundaries will become the focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ...Texas to Southern IL... A moisture-rich boundary layer will be present, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Atop this moist boundary layer, steep midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km are forecast. This will result in strong to extreme instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells, with modestly enlarged low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 3 km. Significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible with initial supercell development. How long semi-discrete supercells will be maintained is a bit uncertain. Upscale development into bowing segments will likely occur, resulting in an increasing damaging wind risk with time. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to increase by early evening. This will support increasing 0-1 km SRH (to around 200 m2/s2) and a few tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out, especially over parts of AR into north Texas. ...IN/KY to the Lower Great Lakes... Forcing for ascent across the region will mainly be provided by any MCVs from remnant Day 1/Tue convection floating through southwesterly flow, and the eastward-advancing cold front. A moist airmass with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s will be present over IN/OH/KY, with low/mid 60s extending northeast into NY/PA and vicinity. Strong heating and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization during the late morning/afternoon. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells, though decreasing with northeast extent into eastern NY and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail will be possible with thunderstorms into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The highest concentration of damaging gusts and large to very large hail is expected from north Texas to the Missouri Bootheel vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. Meanwhile, convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from the Day 1/Tue period will develop east/northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes area in broad southwesterly deep-layer flow. Further south, broad, enhanced southwesterly flow will persist over the southern Plains to the Mid-South. One or more shortwave impulses are expected to float through this area ahead of a deepening large-scale western U.S. upper trough. At the surface, an occluding low near the MN/Ontario border will lift north through the period, with a weak surface trough extending into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. The northern extent of a surface cold front will progress eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity. Meanwhile, the front will mainly stall from IN/southern IL into central OK and northwest TX. A dryline will move east into central TX. These boundaries will become the focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ...Texas to Southern IL... A moisture-rich boundary layer will be present, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Atop this moist boundary layer, steep midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km are forecast. This will result in strong to extreme instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells, with modestly enlarged low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 3 km. Significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible with initial supercell development. How long semi-discrete supercells will be maintained is a bit uncertain. Upscale development into bowing segments will likely occur, resulting in an increasing damaging wind risk with time. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to increase by early evening. This will support increasing 0-1 km SRH (to around 200 m2/s2) and a few tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out, especially over parts of AR into north Texas. ...IN/KY to the Lower Great Lakes... Forcing for ascent across the region will mainly be provided by any MCVs from remnant Day 1/Tue convection floating through southwesterly flow, and the eastward-advancing cold front. A moist airmass with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s will be present over IN/OH/KY, with low/mid 60s extending northeast into NY/PA and vicinity. Strong heating and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization during the late morning/afternoon. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells, though decreasing with northeast extent into eastern NY and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail will be possible with thunderstorms into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The highest concentration of damaging gusts and large to very large hail is expected from north Texas to the Missouri Bootheel vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. Meanwhile, convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from the Day 1/Tue period will develop east/northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes area in broad southwesterly deep-layer flow. Further south, broad, enhanced southwesterly flow will persist over the southern Plains to the Mid-South. One or more shortwave impulses are expected to float through this area ahead of a deepening large-scale western U.S. upper trough. At the surface, an occluding low near the MN/Ontario border will lift north through the period, with a weak surface trough extending into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. The northern extent of a surface cold front will progress eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity. Meanwhile, the front will mainly stall from IN/southern IL into central OK and northwest TX. A dryline will move east into central TX. These boundaries will become the focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ...Texas to Southern IL... A moisture-rich boundary layer will be present, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Atop this moist boundary layer, steep midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km are forecast. This will result in strong to extreme instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells, with modestly enlarged low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 3 km. Significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible with initial supercell development. How long semi-discrete supercells will be maintained is a bit uncertain. Upscale development into bowing segments will likely occur, resulting in an increasing damaging wind risk with time. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to increase by early evening. This will support increasing 0-1 km SRH (to around 200 m2/s2) and a few tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out, especially over parts of AR into north Texas. ...IN/KY to the Lower Great Lakes... Forcing for ascent across the region will mainly be provided by any MCVs from remnant Day 1/Tue convection floating through southwesterly flow, and the eastward-advancing cold front. A moist airmass with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s will be present over IN/OH/KY, with low/mid 60s extending northeast into NY/PA and vicinity. Strong heating and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization during the late morning/afternoon. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells, though decreasing with northeast extent into eastern NY and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail will be possible with thunderstorms into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The highest concentration of damaging gusts and large to very large hail is expected from north Texas to the Missouri Bootheel vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. Meanwhile, convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from the Day 1/Tue period will develop east/northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes area in broad southwesterly deep-layer flow. Further south, broad, enhanced southwesterly flow will persist over the southern Plains to the Mid-South. One or more shortwave impulses are expected to float through this area ahead of a deepening large-scale western U.S. upper trough. At the surface, an occluding low near the MN/Ontario border will lift north through the period, with a weak surface trough extending into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. The northern extent of a surface cold front will progress eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity. Meanwhile, the front will mainly stall from IN/southern IL into central OK and northwest TX. A dryline will move east into central TX. These boundaries will become the focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ...Texas to Southern IL... A moisture-rich boundary layer will be present, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Atop this moist boundary layer, steep midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km are forecast. This will result in strong to extreme instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells, with modestly enlarged low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 3 km. Significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible with initial supercell development. How long semi-discrete supercells will be maintained is a bit uncertain. Upscale development into bowing segments will likely occur, resulting in an increasing damaging wind risk with time. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to increase by early evening. This will support increasing 0-1 km SRH (to around 200 m2/s2) and a few tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out, especially over parts of AR into north Texas. ...IN/KY to the Lower Great Lakes... Forcing for ascent across the region will mainly be provided by any MCVs from remnant Day 1/Tue convection floating through southwesterly flow, and the eastward-advancing cold front. A moist airmass with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s will be present over IN/OH/KY, with low/mid 60s extending northeast into NY/PA and vicinity. Strong heating and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization during the late morning/afternoon. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells, though decreasing with northeast extent into eastern NY and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail will be possible with thunderstorms into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The highest concentration of damaging gusts and large to very large hail is expected from north Texas to the Missouri Bootheel vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. Meanwhile, convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from the Day 1/Tue period will develop east/northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes area in broad southwesterly deep-layer flow. Further south, broad, enhanced southwesterly flow will persist over the southern Plains to the Mid-South. One or more shortwave impulses are expected to float through this area ahead of a deepening large-scale western U.S. upper trough. At the surface, an occluding low near the MN/Ontario border will lift north through the period, with a weak surface trough extending into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. The northern extent of a surface cold front will progress eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity. Meanwhile, the front will mainly stall from IN/southern IL into central OK and northwest TX. A dryline will move east into central TX. These boundaries will become the focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ...Texas to Southern IL... A moisture-rich boundary layer will be present, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Atop this moist boundary layer, steep midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km are forecast. This will result in strong to extreme instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells, with modestly enlarged low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 3 km. Significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible with initial supercell development. How long semi-discrete supercells will be maintained is a bit uncertain. Upscale development into bowing segments will likely occur, resulting in an increasing damaging wind risk with time. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to increase by early evening. This will support increasing 0-1 km SRH (to around 200 m2/s2) and a few tornadoes will be possible. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out, especially over parts of AR into north Texas. ...IN/KY to the Lower Great Lakes... Forcing for ascent across the region will mainly be provided by any MCVs from remnant Day 1/Tue convection floating through southwesterly flow, and the eastward-advancing cold front. A moist airmass with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s will be present over IN/OH/KY, with low/mid 60s extending northeast into NY/PA and vicinity. Strong heating and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization during the late morning/afternoon. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells, though decreasing with northeast extent into eastern NY and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail will be possible with thunderstorms into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more