Severe Storms

MD 1302 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1302 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana...northern and central Ohio...into far western New York/Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171728Z - 171930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage may gradually increase through the afternoon with one or more convective clusters possible. Storm organization should remain fairly limited, but damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible with the stronger cores. A WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1720 UTC, regional radar and satellite data showed isolated thunderstorms had evolved out of a destabilizing air mass over parts of the mid and upper OH Valley. Located near the periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone and near a weak remnant MCV, forcing for ascent is rather nebulous and is likely primarily being driven by ongoing strong diurnal heating. As surface temperatures approach and breach convective temperatures, storm coverage should increase supported by 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis. Vertical shear is rather weak, generally less than 20 kt, which should favor a multicellular storm mode. Some clustering of stronger cells is also expected given relatively high LCL heights (> 1500m) and steep low-level lapse rates supporting efficient downdrafts. This will likely favor damaging gusts with the stronger storms. Isolated hail may also be possible with the deeper and more persistent updrafts given the large magnitude of buoyancy. While a few stronger clusters of storms may evolve, the limited vertical shear and forcing for ascent suggest storm organization will be limited. Given the limited storm organization, a WW is not expected. ..Lyons/Halbert/Gleason.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40788579 40898570 41098550 41398485 41558393 41518320 41578177 42148021 42257985 42567897 42117900 41597923 40967986 40438096 39658394 40008561 40788579 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1301 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428... FOR FAR NORTHEAST WI INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Far Northeast WI into Central/Eastern Upper MI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428... Valid 171628Z - 171800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts and/or hail will continue for the next hour or so. Downstream watch across the eastern UP not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convective cluster continues to progress northeastward from far northeastern WI into central Upper MI, supported by a eastward-progressing cold front. Modest destabilization has occurred downstream across central Upper MI, with mid/upper 70s temperatures amid upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints current in place. This buoyancy should help maintain the ongoing cluster, with some modest intensification possible over the next hour or so. Damaging gusts will remain the primary risk, but hail is possible with any more cellular development that occurs ahead of the cluster. Given the increasing cloud cover, destabilization is more uncertain farther east into eastern Upper MI, with the storms expected to gradually weaken as they encounter the increasing stable airmass farther east. As such, a downstream watch across the eastern UP appears unlikely. ..Mosier.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45078885 46158823 46688774 46858639 46248591 44598754 44298888 45078885 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more