Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will progress eastward today traversing the Rockies, while a mid-level jet slowly exits the Desert Southwest and High Plains. The entrance region of this jet, however, will remain over NM and far eastern AZ for most of the day. Deep westerly to southwesterly flow is still expected across the aforementioned states, albeit slower/weaker than Monday. West to southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will develop this afternoon across much of NM and AZ, and RH will drop into the low teens to single digits. Sustained wind speeds across northern NM may briefly exceed 20 mph, where momentum transfer through a deeply mixed boundary layer and a tighter pressure gradient will reside. A Critical area does not appear warranted at this time, though, considering the duration of the higher speeds and less receptive fuels across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0868 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...FAR SOUTHWEST WI...FAR NORTHWEST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0929 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern IA...Far Southwest WI...Far Northwest IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275... Valid 211429Z - 211600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts will continue across central and eastern IA for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A convective line continues over central IA, with recent storm motion estimated to be northeastward at 40-45 kt. This motion takes the line into more of eastern IA between 15Z and 16Z. Recent surface analysis places a warm front from far southwest IA northeastward to south of CID and then eastward into northern IL. The ongoing convective line is currently north of this boundary, with the elevated character to this line likely contributing to the lack of measured surface gusts. The southwest-to-northeast orientation of the warm front and its somewhat slow motion north coupled with the predominantly northeastward motion of the line casts some doubt to whether or not this line will be able to evolve towards a more surface-based character with eastern extent. If it does, some trend towards stronger and more frequent gusts is possible. Even if the line remains elevated, the overall environment is expected to improve as it moves downstream, with damaging gusts remaining possible. Additionally, given the improving environmental conditions anticipated, overall convective trends will be monitored for potential downstream watch issuance into northwest IL and southwest WI. ..Mosier.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 41669404 42109334 42329230 42679031 41559005 41009096 40769245 40729362 41669404 Read more

WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SDA TO 10 SW DSM TO 25 NNE OXV TO 10 NW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 ..MOSIER..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-011-013-019-031-039-051-053-055-087-095-101-103-105- 107-113-117-121-123-125-135-157-159-171-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-211640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN CEDAR CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SDA TO 10 SW DSM TO 25 NNE OXV TO 10 NW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 ..MOSIER..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-011-013-019-031-039-051-053-055-087-095-101-103-105- 107-113-117-121-123-125-135-157-159-171-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-211640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN CEDAR CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SDA TO 10 SW DSM TO 25 NNE OXV TO 10 NW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 ..MOSIER..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-011-013-019-031-039-051-053-055-087-095-101-103-105- 107-113-117-121-123-125-135-157-159-171-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-211640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN CEDAR CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SDA TO 10 SW DSM TO 25 NNE OXV TO 10 NW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 ..MOSIER..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-011-013-019-031-039-051-053-055-087-095-101-103-105- 107-113-117-121-123-125-135-157-159-171-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-211640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN CEDAR CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SDA TO 10 SW DSM TO 25 NNE OXV TO 10 NW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 ..MOSIER..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-011-013-019-031-039-051-053-055-087-095-101-103-105- 107-113-117-121-123-125-135-157-159-171-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-211640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN CEDAR CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SDA TO 10 SW DSM TO 25 NNE OXV TO 10 NW ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 ..MOSIER..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 275 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-011-013-019-031-039-051-053-055-087-095-101-103-105- 107-113-117-121-123-125-135-157-159-171-173-175-177-179-181-183- 185-211640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN CEDAR CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 275 SEVERE TSTM IA 211115Z - 211800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and southern Iowa * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 615 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms -- including an organized bowing complex initially over eastern NE -- will pose a threat mainly for severe gusts while crossing the watch area from west to east. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially near an outflow boundary draped across central/south-central IA. Isolated large hail is possible. This is a precursor to the main severe-weather threat expected later today, for which we have a "Moderate Risk" outlook. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Des Moines IA to 25 miles south southeast of Cedar Rapids IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Edwards Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 21 14:08:09 UTC 2024.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Midwest this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Iowa Northern Illinois Northern Missouri Southern Wisconsin Southeast Minnesota Far Eastern Kansas Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is expected mainly this afternoon to early evening. The greatest threat is over Iowa and parts of adjacent states. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more