Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions Kansas and Oklahoma into the Arklatex region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across the central Plains into South Dakota, and across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Broad, low-amplitude southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Some enhancement of mid/upper flow is forecast across from the Northeast states as a compact upper shortwave trough glances the international border. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast. This will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon from VA northeast along the Atlantic coastal vicinity amid a seasonally moist airmass. Modest destabilization and steepening low-level lapse rates are forecast. Strong gusts will be possible with thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon. A plume of modest midlevel lapse rate also will overspread the region, and vertical shear will be sufficient, especially from NJ northward, to support sporadic marginal hail as well. ...Plains Vicinity... A subtle upper shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, while another deepening shortwave trough overspreads the northern/central Plains. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow (30-50 kt) on Thursday. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast over the central High Plains. A surface low will progress east across SD/NE to IA/MN, with a cold front developing east/southeast across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward from a secondary low over western KS into central TX. Strengthening low-level southerly flow in response to the deepening low will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with near-60 F dewpoints as far north as NE. Richer boundary-layer moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) will remain farther south. Strong destabilization ahead of the dryline and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon across the southern Plains vicinity. One or more clusters will track southeast through the evening into the ArkLaTex region. All severe hazards appear possible. Severe potential may be less with northward extent into NE/SD and vicinity given more modest moisture, but at least isolated strong/severe storms appear possible given an otherwise favorable environment. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions Kansas and Oklahoma into the Arklatex region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across the central Plains into South Dakota, and across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Broad, low-amplitude southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Some enhancement of mid/upper flow is forecast across from the Northeast states as a compact upper shortwave trough glances the international border. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast. This will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon from VA northeast along the Atlantic coastal vicinity amid a seasonally moist airmass. Modest destabilization and steepening low-level lapse rates are forecast. Strong gusts will be possible with thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon. A plume of modest midlevel lapse rate also will overspread the region, and vertical shear will be sufficient, especially from NJ northward, to support sporadic marginal hail as well. ...Plains Vicinity... A subtle upper shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, while another deepening shortwave trough overspreads the northern/central Plains. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow (30-50 kt) on Thursday. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast over the central High Plains. A surface low will progress east across SD/NE to IA/MN, with a cold front developing east/southeast across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward from a secondary low over western KS into central TX. Strengthening low-level southerly flow in response to the deepening low will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with near-60 F dewpoints as far north as NE. Richer boundary-layer moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) will remain farther south. Strong destabilization ahead of the dryline and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon across the southern Plains vicinity. One or more clusters will track southeast through the evening into the ArkLaTex region. All severe hazards appear possible. Severe potential may be less with northward extent into NE/SD and vicinity given more modest moisture, but at least isolated strong/severe storms appear possible given an otherwise favorable environment. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions Kansas and Oklahoma into the Arklatex region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across the central Plains into South Dakota, and across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Broad, low-amplitude southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Some enhancement of mid/upper flow is forecast across from the Northeast states as a compact upper shortwave trough glances the international border. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast. This will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon from VA northeast along the Atlantic coastal vicinity amid a seasonally moist airmass. Modest destabilization and steepening low-level lapse rates are forecast. Strong gusts will be possible with thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon. A plume of modest midlevel lapse rate also will overspread the region, and vertical shear will be sufficient, especially from NJ northward, to support sporadic marginal hail as well. ...Plains Vicinity... A subtle upper shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, while another deepening shortwave trough overspreads the northern/central Plains. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow (30-50 kt) on Thursday. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast over the central High Plains. A surface low will progress east across SD/NE to IA/MN, with a cold front developing east/southeast across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward from a secondary low over western KS into central TX. Strengthening low-level southerly flow in response to the deepening low will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with near-60 F dewpoints as far north as NE. Richer boundary-layer moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) will remain farther south. Strong destabilization ahead of the dryline and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon across the southern Plains vicinity. One or more clusters will track southeast through the evening into the ArkLaTex region. All severe hazards appear possible. Severe potential may be less with northward extent into NE/SD and vicinity given more modest moisture, but at least isolated strong/severe storms appear possible given an otherwise favorable environment. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions Kansas and Oklahoma into the Arklatex region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across the central Plains into South Dakota, and across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Broad, low-amplitude southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Some enhancement of mid/upper flow is forecast across from the Northeast states as a compact upper shortwave trough glances the international border. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast. This will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon from VA northeast along the Atlantic coastal vicinity amid a seasonally moist airmass. Modest destabilization and steepening low-level lapse rates are forecast. Strong gusts will be possible with thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon. A plume of modest midlevel lapse rate also will overspread the region, and vertical shear will be sufficient, especially from NJ northward, to support sporadic marginal hail as well. ...Plains Vicinity... A subtle upper shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, while another deepening shortwave trough overspreads the northern/central Plains. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow (30-50 kt) on Thursday. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast over the central High Plains. A surface low will progress east across SD/NE to IA/MN, with a cold front developing east/southeast across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward from a secondary low over western KS into central TX. Strengthening low-level southerly flow in response to the deepening low will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with near-60 F dewpoints as far north as NE. Richer boundary-layer moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) will remain farther south. Strong destabilization ahead of the dryline and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon across the southern Plains vicinity. One or more clusters will track southeast through the evening into the ArkLaTex region. All severe hazards appear possible. Severe potential may be less with northward extent into NE/SD and vicinity given more modest moisture, but at least isolated strong/severe storms appear possible given an otherwise favorable environment. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions Kansas and Oklahoma into the Arklatex region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across the central Plains into South Dakota, and across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Broad, low-amplitude southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Some enhancement of mid/upper flow is forecast across from the Northeast states as a compact upper shortwave trough glances the international border. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast. This will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon from VA northeast along the Atlantic coastal vicinity amid a seasonally moist airmass. Modest destabilization and steepening low-level lapse rates are forecast. Strong gusts will be possible with thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon. A plume of modest midlevel lapse rate also will overspread the region, and vertical shear will be sufficient, especially from NJ northward, to support sporadic marginal hail as well. ...Plains Vicinity... A subtle upper shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, while another deepening shortwave trough overspreads the northern/central Plains. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow (30-50 kt) on Thursday. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast over the central High Plains. A surface low will progress east across SD/NE to IA/MN, with a cold front developing east/southeast across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward from a secondary low over western KS into central TX. Strengthening low-level southerly flow in response to the deepening low will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with near-60 F dewpoints as far north as NE. Richer boundary-layer moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) will remain farther south. Strong destabilization ahead of the dryline and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon across the southern Plains vicinity. One or more clusters will track southeast through the evening into the ArkLaTex region. All severe hazards appear possible. Severe potential may be less with northward extent into NE/SD and vicinity given more modest moisture, but at least isolated strong/severe storms appear possible given an otherwise favorable environment. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions Kansas and Oklahoma into the Arklatex region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across the central Plains into South Dakota, and across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Broad, low-amplitude southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Some enhancement of mid/upper flow is forecast across from the Northeast states as a compact upper shortwave trough glances the international border. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast. This will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon from VA northeast along the Atlantic coastal vicinity amid a seasonally moist airmass. Modest destabilization and steepening low-level lapse rates are forecast. Strong gusts will be possible with thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon. A plume of modest midlevel lapse rate also will overspread the region, and vertical shear will be sufficient, especially from NJ northward, to support sporadic marginal hail as well. ...Plains Vicinity... A subtle upper shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, while another deepening shortwave trough overspreads the northern/central Plains. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow (30-50 kt) on Thursday. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast over the central High Plains. A surface low will progress east across SD/NE to IA/MN, with a cold front developing east/southeast across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward from a secondary low over western KS into central TX. Strengthening low-level southerly flow in response to the deepening low will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with near-60 F dewpoints as far north as NE. Richer boundary-layer moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) will remain farther south. Strong destabilization ahead of the dryline and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon across the southern Plains vicinity. One or more clusters will track southeast through the evening into the ArkLaTex region. All severe hazards appear possible. Severe potential may be less with northward extent into NE/SD and vicinity given more modest moisture, but at least isolated strong/severe storms appear possible given an otherwise favorable environment. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions Kansas and Oklahoma into the Arklatex region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across the central Plains into South Dakota, and across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Broad, low-amplitude southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Some enhancement of mid/upper flow is forecast across from the Northeast states as a compact upper shortwave trough glances the international border. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast. This will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon from VA northeast along the Atlantic coastal vicinity amid a seasonally moist airmass. Modest destabilization and steepening low-level lapse rates are forecast. Strong gusts will be possible with thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon. A plume of modest midlevel lapse rate also will overspread the region, and vertical shear will be sufficient, especially from NJ northward, to support sporadic marginal hail as well. ...Plains Vicinity... A subtle upper shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, while another deepening shortwave trough overspreads the northern/central Plains. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow (30-50 kt) on Thursday. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast over the central High Plains. A surface low will progress east across SD/NE to IA/MN, with a cold front developing east/southeast across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward from a secondary low over western KS into central TX. Strengthening low-level southerly flow in response to the deepening low will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with near-60 F dewpoints as far north as NE. Richer boundary-layer moisture (mid 60s to low 70s F) will remain farther south. Strong destabilization ahead of the dryline and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon across the southern Plains vicinity. One or more clusters will track southeast through the evening into the ArkLaTex region. All severe hazards appear possible. Severe potential may be less with northward extent into NE/SD and vicinity given more modest moisture, but at least isolated strong/severe storms appear possible given an otherwise favorable environment. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will encompass the central and western CONUS Wednesday. The strongest mid-level flow is expected to extend from the Southern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and across the Pacific Northwest near the base of mid-level cyclone. A deeply mixed air mass will remain present over the Desert Southwest, while a cold front dives southward into portions of the Southern and High Plains. Further west across portions of NM and AZ, sustained westerly surface winds near 15 mph are expected where increasingly receptive fuels and single-digit RH will be present. Localized wind speeds may briefly approach or exceed 20 mph across southern NM Wednesday afternoon, but the probability of this occurring for more than 3 hours across a broad region is too low to introduce a Critical area at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0864 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 273... FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0864 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 273... Valid 210629Z - 210730Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 273 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of intense storms continues moving eastward across southwestern Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas. All-hazards severe risk is evident. DISCUSSION...A well-organized, broadly rotating storm is currently observed crossing the Hayes/Hitchcock County vicinity in Nebraska, with trailing storms extending southwestward to Cheyenne County Kansas. The storms are ongoing just north of the conglomerate surface front/outflow lying west-southwest to east-northeast across northwestern Kansas and into central and southeastern Nebraska. As such, this region is on the northern gradient of surface-based instability, and thus capable of producing all-hazards severe weather -- given favorably strong/sheared background flow. This convection should maintain intensity as it shifts eastward toward -- and eventually into -- WW 274, aided by the observed 60-kt low-level jet. ..Goss.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39610212 39900210 40190168 40390153 40600017 39910002 39700047 39610212 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the state of Iowa and vicinity this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Iowa Northwestern Illinois Northern Missouri Southwestern Wisconsin Southeastern Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is probable today, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. The area most likely to be impacted will include the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lake Michigan vicinity. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the state of Iowa and vicinity this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Iowa Northwestern Illinois Northern Missouri Southwestern Wisconsin Southeastern Minnesota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is probable today, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. The area most likely to be impacted will include the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lake Michigan vicinity. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more