Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1318 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northeastern Kentucky...far western West Virginia...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...far southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181735Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts and isolated instances of hail will continue to gradually increase through the afternoon. The overall severe threat should be more sparse, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A moist low-level airmass continues to advect northward and pivot around a deep-layer anticyclone currently positioned over the Mid Atlantic region. Robust heating of this moist airmass is resulting in convective temperatures (i.e. 88-90 F) being reached over many locales, with thunderstorm initiation already underway. Overspreading this airmass are 6+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, which are supporting narrow, but tall CAPE profiles, with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE already becoming widespread. The current synoptic regime around the anticyclone is fostering weak vertical shear/flow profiles, so pulse-cellular is the expected mode of convection, though multicells are also possible. Wet downbursts with the stronger storms should support strong wind gusts, some of which may cause damage. An instance or two of hail are also possible. However, severe (50+ kt) winds are not expected to be particularly widespread, so a WW appears unlikely at this time. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX... JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 37168390 40228313 41548210 42757904 42437780 41717740 40867792 40197846 39307980 38168080 37238200 37008303 37168390 Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0434 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0433 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 18 18:03:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from parts of the Iowa vicinity into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern/southeastern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois... Lingering convection from the Day 1 period should be ongoing across the central Plains area Wednesday morning, with some convective reinforcement of the cold front lying from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to New Mexico at the start of the period. As the airmass destabilizes through peak heating, storm redevelopment is expected. At this time, the greatest risk for locally damaging wind gusts associated with stronger storms appears to exist from southeastern Iowa/northern Missouri northeastward, ahead of a potential, loosely organized band of convection which may redevelop near the front, and shift east-northeastward along the boundary. The risk may persist through late afternoon, before an evening decrease in convective intensity. ...The southern High Plains vicinity... As a cold front shifts southward across the Plains, afternoon storm reinvigoration/development is expected across the southern High Plains region. A destabilizing airmass near and south of the front, combined with the southern fringe of stronger mid-level southwesterlies lying atop this area, may result in an environment sufficient to support organized convection, and associated risk for strong gusts locally, along with marginal hail. Risk will peak through the afternoon and early evening. ...Southern and southeastern Texas... Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 is forecast to move westward across northern Mexico Wednesday, with convection surrounding the system expected to spread west across a large portion of Texas. While weak lapse rates aloft will substantially limit instability, roughly unidirectional easterly flow through the lower troposphere, increasing with height through the low levels, may provide enough shear for occasionally rotating, low-topped convective cells. Along with gusty winds, a brief tornado or two will be possible with a couple of the stronger/sustained cells. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 Read more