Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a few tornadoes may also occur. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments to account for ongoing evolution of current convection, no appreciable changes appear necessary to the outlook areas currently in effect. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid, for anticipated evolution of the severe risk for the remainder of the period. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains and Southern High Plains... A pronounced upper trough will advance eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations forecast to move northeastward across the northern/central Plains and upper MS Valley through the period. At the surface, a 997 mb low currently over eastern SD will develop northeastward towards the MN Arrowhead through this evening. A secondary surface low should remain located over the southern/central High Plains. Between these two lows, a surface cold front will continue to progress east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. This boundary will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorms today. Based on latest guidance, the broad Slight Risk extending from the upper MS Valley into the mid MO Valley/central Plains and southern High Plains has generally been expanded to account for severe/damaging wind potential continuing into at least mid evening. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across the upper MS Valley and mid MO Valley along/near the cold front. With a rather moist airmass in place across these regions based on latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings, moderate instability is expected to develop this afternoon, even though cloud cover may temper diurnal heating to some extent, especially in MN. The stronger mid-level southwesterly flow should tend to remain displaced to the cool side of the surface front. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear should exist to support a mix of multicells and supercells with this initial development. Given the linear forcing of the front, upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters is anticipated later this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible, with a transition to a mainly damaging wind threat as clusters become dominant. Enough low-level shear may also support some threat for a few tornadoes, especially in MN with any supercell that can be maintained. Additional intense convective development is expected with southward extent into the central Plains along the front, perhaps delayed until a little later in the afternoon as stronger daytime heating will be needed to erode a cap/lingering MLCIN. Strong instability and deep-layer shear should be present over parts of western/central KS, where multiple supercells may develop near/east of the secondary surface low. Isolated very large hail may occur with this activity given the favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. A few tornadoes may also occur in a narrow corridor across southwest KS this evening if supercells can be maintained as low-level shear increases. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds (with perhaps some reaching 75-80 mph on an isolated basis) appear probable as convection likely grows upscale into a bowing cluster across central KS late this afternoon/early evening. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop across the southern High Plains (OK/TX Panhandle regions) along/east of a dryline. Severe wind gusts should be the main threat if this activity occurs, as the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed, with steep low-level lapse rates present. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Recent water vapor satellite and radar imagery show multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and remnant MCVs present across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast. This activity is occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will aid ample destabilization this afternoon across a broad portion of the upper OH River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs. Localized downbursts with strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible through the diurnal heating cycle. Have maintained a broad Marginal Risk to account for this potential, as confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains low. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly flow will gradually increase late tonight into early Wednesday morning as Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 develops and moves westward over the southwest Gulf, per latest NHC forecast. While instability should remain weak, with poor lapse rates aloft, strengthening low-level shear may support a low chance for a tornado with any low-topped cells that can approach/reach parts of the lower/middle TX Coast near the end of the Day 1 period. This threat should continue into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a few tornadoes may also occur. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments to account for ongoing evolution of current convection, no appreciable changes appear necessary to the outlook areas currently in effect. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid, for anticipated evolution of the severe risk for the remainder of the period. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains and Southern High Plains... A pronounced upper trough will advance eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations forecast to move northeastward across the northern/central Plains and upper MS Valley through the period. At the surface, a 997 mb low currently over eastern SD will develop northeastward towards the MN Arrowhead through this evening. A secondary surface low should remain located over the southern/central High Plains. Between these two lows, a surface cold front will continue to progress east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. This boundary will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorms today. Based on latest guidance, the broad Slight Risk extending from the upper MS Valley into the mid MO Valley/central Plains and southern High Plains has generally been expanded to account for severe/damaging wind potential continuing into at least mid evening. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across the upper MS Valley and mid MO Valley along/near the cold front. With a rather moist airmass in place across these regions based on latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings, moderate instability is expected to develop this afternoon, even though cloud cover may temper diurnal heating to some extent, especially in MN. The stronger mid-level southwesterly flow should tend to remain displaced to the cool side of the surface front. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear should exist to support a mix of multicells and supercells with this initial development. Given the linear forcing of the front, upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters is anticipated later this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible, with a transition to a mainly damaging wind threat as clusters become dominant. Enough low-level shear may also support some threat for a few tornadoes, especially in MN with any supercell that can be maintained. Additional intense convective development is expected with southward extent into the central Plains along the front, perhaps delayed until a little later in the afternoon as stronger daytime heating will be needed to erode a cap/lingering MLCIN. Strong instability and deep-layer shear should be present over parts of western/central KS, where multiple supercells may develop near/east of the secondary surface low. Isolated very large hail may occur with this activity given the favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. A few tornadoes may also occur in a narrow corridor across southwest KS this evening if supercells can be maintained as low-level shear increases. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds (with perhaps some reaching 75-80 mph on an isolated basis) appear probable as convection likely grows upscale into a bowing cluster across central KS late this afternoon/early evening. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop across the southern High Plains (OK/TX Panhandle regions) along/east of a dryline. Severe wind gusts should be the main threat if this activity occurs, as the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed, with steep low-level lapse rates present. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Recent water vapor satellite and radar imagery show multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and remnant MCVs present across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast. This activity is occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will aid ample destabilization this afternoon across a broad portion of the upper OH River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs. Localized downbursts with strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible through the diurnal heating cycle. Have maintained a broad Marginal Risk to account for this potential, as confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains low. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly flow will gradually increase late tonight into early Wednesday morning as Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 develops and moves westward over the southwest Gulf, per latest NHC forecast. While instability should remain weak, with poor lapse rates aloft, strengthening low-level shear may support a low chance for a tornado with any low-topped cells that can approach/reach parts of the lower/middle TX Coast near the end of the Day 1 period. This threat should continue into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a few tornadoes may also occur. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments to account for ongoing evolution of current convection, no appreciable changes appear necessary to the outlook areas currently in effect. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid, for anticipated evolution of the severe risk for the remainder of the period. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains and Southern High Plains... A pronounced upper trough will advance eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations forecast to move northeastward across the northern/central Plains and upper MS Valley through the period. At the surface, a 997 mb low currently over eastern SD will develop northeastward towards the MN Arrowhead through this evening. A secondary surface low should remain located over the southern/central High Plains. Between these two lows, a surface cold front will continue to progress east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. This boundary will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorms today. Based on latest guidance, the broad Slight Risk extending from the upper MS Valley into the mid MO Valley/central Plains and southern High Plains has generally been expanded to account for severe/damaging wind potential continuing into at least mid evening. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across the upper MS Valley and mid MO Valley along/near the cold front. With a rather moist airmass in place across these regions based on latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings, moderate instability is expected to develop this afternoon, even though cloud cover may temper diurnal heating to some extent, especially in MN. The stronger mid-level southwesterly flow should tend to remain displaced to the cool side of the surface front. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear should exist to support a mix of multicells and supercells with this initial development. Given the linear forcing of the front, upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters is anticipated later this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible, with a transition to a mainly damaging wind threat as clusters become dominant. Enough low-level shear may also support some threat for a few tornadoes, especially in MN with any supercell that can be maintained. Additional intense convective development is expected with southward extent into the central Plains along the front, perhaps delayed until a little later in the afternoon as stronger daytime heating will be needed to erode a cap/lingering MLCIN. Strong instability and deep-layer shear should be present over parts of western/central KS, where multiple supercells may develop near/east of the secondary surface low. Isolated very large hail may occur with this activity given the favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. A few tornadoes may also occur in a narrow corridor across southwest KS this evening if supercells can be maintained as low-level shear increases. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds (with perhaps some reaching 75-80 mph on an isolated basis) appear probable as convection likely grows upscale into a bowing cluster across central KS late this afternoon/early evening. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop across the southern High Plains (OK/TX Panhandle regions) along/east of a dryline. Severe wind gusts should be the main threat if this activity occurs, as the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed, with steep low-level lapse rates present. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Recent water vapor satellite and radar imagery show multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and remnant MCVs present across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast. This activity is occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will aid ample destabilization this afternoon across a broad portion of the upper OH River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs. Localized downbursts with strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible through the diurnal heating cycle. Have maintained a broad Marginal Risk to account for this potential, as confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains low. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly flow will gradually increase late tonight into early Wednesday morning as Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 develops and moves westward over the southwest Gulf, per latest NHC forecast. While instability should remain weak, with poor lapse rates aloft, strengthening low-level shear may support a low chance for a tornado with any low-topped cells that can approach/reach parts of the lower/middle TX Coast near the end of the Day 1 period. This threat should continue into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a few tornadoes may also occur. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments to account for ongoing evolution of current convection, no appreciable changes appear necessary to the outlook areas currently in effect. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid, for anticipated evolution of the severe risk for the remainder of the period. ..Goss.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains and Southern High Plains... A pronounced upper trough will advance eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations forecast to move northeastward across the northern/central Plains and upper MS Valley through the period. At the surface, a 997 mb low currently over eastern SD will develop northeastward towards the MN Arrowhead through this evening. A secondary surface low should remain located over the southern/central High Plains. Between these two lows, a surface cold front will continue to progress east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. This boundary will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorms today. Based on latest guidance, the broad Slight Risk extending from the upper MS Valley into the mid MO Valley/central Plains and southern High Plains has generally been expanded to account for severe/damaging wind potential continuing into at least mid evening. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across the upper MS Valley and mid MO Valley along/near the cold front. With a rather moist airmass in place across these regions based on latest surface observations and area 12Z soundings, moderate instability is expected to develop this afternoon, even though cloud cover may temper diurnal heating to some extent, especially in MN. The stronger mid-level southwesterly flow should tend to remain displaced to the cool side of the surface front. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear should exist to support a mix of multicells and supercells with this initial development. Given the linear forcing of the front, upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters is anticipated later this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible, with a transition to a mainly damaging wind threat as clusters become dominant. Enough low-level shear may also support some threat for a few tornadoes, especially in MN with any supercell that can be maintained. Additional intense convective development is expected with southward extent into the central Plains along the front, perhaps delayed until a little later in the afternoon as stronger daytime heating will be needed to erode a cap/lingering MLCIN. Strong instability and deep-layer shear should be present over parts of western/central KS, where multiple supercells may develop near/east of the secondary surface low. Isolated very large hail may occur with this activity given the favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. A few tornadoes may also occur in a narrow corridor across southwest KS this evening if supercells can be maintained as low-level shear increases. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds (with perhaps some reaching 75-80 mph on an isolated basis) appear probable as convection likely grows upscale into a bowing cluster across central KS late this afternoon/early evening. Scattered thunderstorms may also develop across the southern High Plains (OK/TX Panhandle regions) along/east of a dryline. Severe wind gusts should be the main threat if this activity occurs, as the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed, with steep low-level lapse rates present. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Recent water vapor satellite and radar imagery show multiple widely dispersed thunderstorm clusters and remnant MCVs present across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast. This activity is occurring on the western/northern periphery of a prominent upper ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas. Surface heating will aid ample destabilization this afternoon across a broad portion of the upper OH River Valley into upstate New York and northern New England. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will once again develop and increase into the afternoon, influenced in some areas by the aforementioned MCVs. Localized downbursts with strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible through the diurnal heating cycle. Have maintained a broad Marginal Risk to account for this potential, as confidence in a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential remains low. ...Lower/Middle Texas Coast... Low-level easterly flow will gradually increase late tonight into early Wednesday morning as Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 develops and moves westward over the southwest Gulf, per latest NHC forecast. While instability should remain weak, with poor lapse rates aloft, strengthening low-level shear may support a low chance for a tornado with any low-topped cells that can approach/reach parts of the lower/middle TX Coast near the end of the Day 1 period. This threat should continue into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame. Read more

MD 1319 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...eastern NE...western IA...and far north-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 181754Z - 182000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front moving across the Mid-Missouri Valley. While large hail and a tornado or two are possible, scattered gusts of 55-70 mph should be the primary threat. A severe thunderstorm watch will be likely by 1930Z. DISCUSSION...A swelling Cu field with incipient Cb development is underway along an east-southeast moving cold front that arcs from far eastern SD through south-central NE. 17Z SPC mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN is becoming negligible along the NE portion of the front with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg amid low 70s surface dew points ahead of it. Deep-layer wind profiles are largely aligned to the frontal orientation, with stronger mid to upper flow also lagging west of it. Still, enough shear in conjunction with the moderately large MLCAPE should prove sufficient for multicell clustering as convection spreads towards/across the Mid-MO Valley. Some enlargement to the low-level hodograph should support transient mesovortices and embedded supercells. A threat for a tornado or two in addition to large hail will be possible, but scattered wind gusts from 55-70 mph should be the overarching hazard into early evening. ..Grams/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 43409582 43369418 42119421 40779538 39499751 39519892 39729936 40429861 42279717 43339655 43409582 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0435 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-021-025-027-029-033-035-041-047-059-063-071-081-085-091- 093-109-119-129-133-137-141-143-147-149-151-155-161-165-167-187- 189-193-195-197-182040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CLAY CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET FREMONT HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH LYON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY SIOUX WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT KSC027-029-089-117-123-141-143-147-157-163-183-201-182040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-031-033-035-037- 041-043-047-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-079-081- 083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129- 131-133-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-159-161-163-165-171- 173-182040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BECKER BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOK COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA DOUGLAS FARIBAULT FREEBORN GRANT HENNEPIN HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI KOOCHICHING LAC QUI PARLE LAKE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES OTTER TAIL PINE PIPESTONE POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK ST. LOUIS SCOTT Read more

MD 1320 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK...VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeast Pennsylvania into New York...Vermont...northern New Hampshire...western Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181801Z - 181930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong, damaging gusts and a couple instances of hail should occur with the stronger storms that can develop through the afternoon. The severe threat should remain more isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Weak deep-layer flow and shear are present across portions of the Hudson Valley into New England as a deep-layer anticyclone persists over the Mid Atlantic. Nonetheless, strong surface heating has boosted surface temperatures into the upper 80s F, supporting both the approach of convective temperatures (hence developing CU), and the achievement of widespread 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Though quite modest, westerly upper-level flow along the northern periphery of the anticyclone is supporting slight elongation of upper-level hodographs. As such, a mix of pulse-single-cells and perhaps a couple of multicells are likely this afternoon. Given some dry air in the surface-850 mb and 700-500 mb layers (per latest RAP forecast soundings), the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts (some damaging), and a couple instances of hail may also be observed. However, the overall severe threat should be more isolated. A WW issuance currently appears unlikely. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 43167746 43607612 44477502 44887332 45017200 46117016 45926948 45096980 43737181 41907426 41127593 40927669 41117752 41737780 42447781 43167746 Read more

MD 1317 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MOST OF MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1317 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...most of MN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 181720Z - 181915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...While initially elevated thunderstorms may pose an isolated severe hail threat, scattered surface-based storms will likely develop by mid to late afternoon from across most of Minnesota. All severe hazards are possible. A tornado watch will probably be needed by 19Z. DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis placed a 997 mb cyclone near the northeast SD/west-central MN border with a warm front gradually advancing north into northern MN and a cold front arcing south-southwest into central NE. Initially elevated convection north of the front may pose some risk for isolated severe hail in the near-term. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN has become weak with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg within the plume of pervasive low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints ahead of the cold front. Morning CAM guidance is insistent on scattered to eventually widespread convective development from northern MN building southward later this afternoon. While the mid to upper-level bulk shear will be modest with much of the stronger flow displaced west of the front, low-level hodographs will remain enlarged across the MN portion of the warm-moist sector. A rather messy convective mode is anticipated to evolve quickly given this wind profile. But with rich boundary-layer moisture and enhanced SRH, tornado potential is a concern from the warm frontal zone southward. A mix of outflow-dominated clusters with embedded and largely transient supercells is expected. These should yield potential for a few tornadoes, scattered wind gusts of 55-70 mph, and isolated large hail from 1-1.75 inches in diameter. ..Grams/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45579650 46179613 47179439 47959296 48119199 47809152 46619217 45619290 44329384 43669474 43649620 44379653 45579650 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more