Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ..Thornton.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...LOWER GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern Texas tonight in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Discussion... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the mid MS Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. Convection that developed in association with frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening has weakened considerably, but continues along a corridor from the upper Great Lakes, southwest across IA into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest model guidance suggests this activity will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along with widespread convective debris. While an embedded disturbance or two may evolve from this activity, it's not entirely clear how substantial subsequent development will be given the weak environmental shear and modest instability. The greatest risk for robust updrafts will be across the southern High Plains into southern NM where strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will be favorable for a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Another region where a few strong storms are possible is across the lower Great Lakes into New England. While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley, northeast into New England as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weakly sheared convection. Low-level shear will increase markedly during the latter half of the period across south Texas along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. This feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland well south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south TX such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some low risk for a tornado or two, especially during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...LOWER GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern Texas tonight in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Discussion... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the mid MS Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. Convection that developed in association with frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening has weakened considerably, but continues along a corridor from the upper Great Lakes, southwest across IA into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest model guidance suggests this activity will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along with widespread convective debris. While an embedded disturbance or two may evolve from this activity, it's not entirely clear how substantial subsequent development will be given the weak environmental shear and modest instability. The greatest risk for robust updrafts will be across the southern High Plains into southern NM where strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will be favorable for a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Another region where a few strong storms are possible is across the lower Great Lakes into New England. While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley, northeast into New England as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weakly sheared convection. Low-level shear will increase markedly during the latter half of the period across south Texas along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. This feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland well south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south TX such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some low risk for a tornado or two, especially during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...LOWER GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern Texas tonight in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Discussion... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the mid MS Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. Convection that developed in association with frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening has weakened considerably, but continues along a corridor from the upper Great Lakes, southwest across IA into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest model guidance suggests this activity will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along with widespread convective debris. While an embedded disturbance or two may evolve from this activity, it's not entirely clear how substantial subsequent development will be given the weak environmental shear and modest instability. The greatest risk for robust updrafts will be across the southern High Plains into southern NM where strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will be favorable for a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Another region where a few strong storms are possible is across the lower Great Lakes into New England. While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley, northeast into New England as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weakly sheared convection. Low-level shear will increase markedly during the latter half of the period across south Texas along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. This feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland well south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south TX such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some low risk for a tornado or two, especially during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...LOWER GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern Texas tonight in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Discussion... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the mid MS Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. Convection that developed in association with frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening has weakened considerably, but continues along a corridor from the upper Great Lakes, southwest across IA into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest model guidance suggests this activity will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along with widespread convective debris. While an embedded disturbance or two may evolve from this activity, it's not entirely clear how substantial subsequent development will be given the weak environmental shear and modest instability. The greatest risk for robust updrafts will be across the southern High Plains into southern NM where strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will be favorable for a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Another region where a few strong storms are possible is across the lower Great Lakes into New England. While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley, northeast into New England as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weakly sheared convection. Low-level shear will increase markedly during the latter half of the period across south Texas along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. This feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland well south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south TX such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some low risk for a tornado or two, especially during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/19/2024 Read more

MD 1330 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... FOR OK AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...OK and far northern TX Panhandles into northwest OK...southwest/central/eastern KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435... Valid 190224Z - 190400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe wind/hail threat may persist through late evening. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong storms is gradually propagating southward across the central/eastern OK Panhandle, and this trend may continue (with some additional backbuilding) as a strong low-level jet remains focused across the region. While deep-layer flow/shear decreases with southward extent, moderate to strong buoyancy will support a continued risk of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts, which may slowly spread into the far northern TX Panhandle and extreme northwest OK. Farther northeast, a couple of bowing line segments that earlier developed over west-central KS appear to be weakening somewhat, though some threat for isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail may continue beyond the 03Z expiration time of WW 435. Local watch extension may be considered if short-term trends continue to support maintenance of an organized severe risk. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36860181 38049933 38479857 39129766 39349623 38849594 37799593 36659948 36340099 36590208 36860181 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW EHA TO 30 NW MHK. WW 435 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1330 ..DEAN..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-057-097-113-115-119-145-151-155-159-169- 175-185-190300- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD KIOWA MCPHERSON MARION MEADE PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 435 SEVERE TSTM KS 181940Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen along a cold front this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large hail up to around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts of 60-80 mph. The threat for severe winds may increase through the evening if one or more bowing clusters develops and spreads eastward into central Kansas. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially if any supercells can persist across southwest Kansas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Russell KS to 35 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1329 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 433... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...central/southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 433... Valid 190000Z - 190200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe wind continues within WW433. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across Minnesota. Storm mode has largely been linear along an eastward-moving cold front. A few sub-severe clusters continue out ahead of the main line. Ahead of this line, an unstable air mass extends across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin with temperatures in the low to mid 80s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s F. Within this region, surface objective analysis shows MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Much of the deep-layer shear remains along and on the cool side of the approaching cold front. Downstream severe threat will be dependent on upscale growth and strength of any developing cold pool within the main line. A watch may be needed east of WW433 if trends show potential for storms to develop a deep cold pool, and increased potential for a damaging-wind threat. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD... LAT...LON 43719534 44529506 45559460 46169441 46929368 47319259 47259205 47199174 46679114 46229113 45669122 45139141 44859153 44279195 44019215 43779259 43529313 43509467 43539488 43719534 Read more

MD 1328 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...435... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1328 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Southwest into central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...435... Valid 182336Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, 435 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts, hail, and a brief tornado may persist into mid evening. DISCUSSION...A frontal band of strong to severe storms from southwest into central KS has been gradually shifting eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. While some consolidation of storms has occurred, multiple embedded cells persist, which will continue to pose a threat of isolated hail. Transient low-level mesocyclones continue to be noted on radar across southwest KS, and some threat for a brief tornado could persist within the vorticity-rich environment near the front. However, a general tendency for strengthening and expanding outflows may result in severe gusts becoming an increasingly prominent hazard across the region, as noted with a recent 60 kt gust in Russell, KS. A continued tendency toward backbuilding and redevelopment may continue through the evening across southwest KS, with a southerly low-level jet expected to remain focused across that region. Farther north, there may be some tendency for gradual weakening with time later this evening from north-central into northeast KS. However, some severe threat could persist beyond the 01Z expiration time of WW 434, potentially necessitating local watch extension or new watch issuance. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37120136 38130013 38749942 39899791 39929740 39859715 39549709 39079736 38009866 37569941 37269986 37030047 37120136 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more