Severe Storms

WW 434 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE SD 181845Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern Iowa Northern Kansas Southern and Eastern Nebraska Far Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify along and east of a cold front this afternoon, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph along with 1-2 inch diameter hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Spencer IA to 30 miles southwest of Concordia KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1326 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182225Z - 190030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to backbuild late this afternoon along a cold front across southwest KS, with increasing cumulus noted into parts of the central OK Panhandle. With time, deep convection could develop into the OK and northern TX Panhandles, within a very warm, well-mixed, and moderate to strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is rather marginal across the region (generally 20-30 kt), but a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell could develop with time, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. A brief landspout will also be possible near the front/dryline intersection across the central OK Panhandle. Farther south, uncertainty increases regarding the coverage of storm development into early evening across parts of the central/southern TX Panhandle. However, a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough could aid in development of a couple stronger storms capable of hail and isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support the potential for multiple severe storms across the region into this evening. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35650281 36910194 36920076 36530062 35910072 34850110 34460149 34410174 34330315 35650281 Read more

MD 1327 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE into western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434... Valid 182251Z - 190015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and isolated hail will continue into this evening. DISCUSSION...An extensive thunderstorm band is ongoing from northwest IA into eastern NE. There has been a tendency for these storms to be slightly anafrontal, due to generally front-parallel deep-layer flow and only marginal deep-layer shear. However, a few embedded clusters have begun to accelerate eastward and keep pace with the front, which could result in an increasing threat of strong to severe gusts as storms approach the Omaha/Lincoln areas and move into a larger portion of northwest IA. Otherwise, moderate to strong buoyancy will support potential for isolated hail with the strongest embedded cells. ..Dean.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40219801 40449784 40769739 41079736 41559702 41879628 42499608 42699502 42559489 41619516 40619599 40229644 40129678 40109746 40219801 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW EHA TO 10 ENE GCK TO 25 SW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-069-081-083-097-105-113-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-195-190040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW EHA TO 10 ENE GCK TO 25 SW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-069-081-083-097-105-113-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-195-190040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1328 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...435... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1328 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Southwest into central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...435... Valid 182336Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, 435 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts, hail, and a brief tornado may persist into mid evening. DISCUSSION...A frontal band of strong to severe storms from southwest into central KS has been gradually shifting eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. While some consolidation of storms has occurred, multiple embedded cells persist, which will continue to pose a threat of isolated hail. Transient low-level mesocyclones continue to be noted on radar across southwest KS, and some threat for a brief tornado could persist within the vorticity-rich environment near the front. However, a general tendency for strengthening and expanding outflows may result in severe gusts becoming an increasingly prominent hazard across the region, as noted with a recent 60 kt gust in Russell, KS. A continued tendency toward backbuilding and redevelopment may continue through the evening across southwest KS, with a southerly low-level jet expected to remain focused across that region. Farther north, there may be some tendency for gradual weakening with time later this evening from north-central into northeast KS. However, some severe threat could persist beyond the 01Z expiration time of WW 434, potentially necessitating local watch extension or new watch issuance. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37120136 38130013 38749942 39899791 39929740 39859715 39549709 39079736 38009866 37569941 37269986 37030047 37120136 Read more

MD 1327 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE into western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434... Valid 182251Z - 190015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and isolated hail will continue into this evening. DISCUSSION...An extensive thunderstorm band is ongoing from northwest IA into eastern NE. There has been a tendency for these storms to be slightly anafrontal, due to generally front-parallel deep-layer flow and only marginal deep-layer shear. However, a few embedded clusters have begun to accelerate eastward and keep pace with the front, which could result in an increasing threat of strong to severe gusts as storms approach the Omaha/Lincoln areas and move into a larger portion of northwest IA. Otherwise, moderate to strong buoyancy will support potential for isolated hail with the strongest embedded cells. ..Dean.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40219801 40449784 40769739 41079736 41559702 41879628 42499608 42699502 42559489 41619516 40619599 40229644 40129678 40109746 40219801 Read more

MD 1326 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182225Z - 190030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to backbuild late this afternoon along a cold front across southwest KS, with increasing cumulus noted into parts of the central OK Panhandle. With time, deep convection could develop into the OK and northern TX Panhandles, within a very warm, well-mixed, and moderate to strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is rather marginal across the region (generally 20-30 kt), but a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell could develop with time, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. A brief landspout will also be possible near the front/dryline intersection across the central OK Panhandle. Farther south, uncertainty increases regarding the coverage of storm development into early evening across parts of the central/southern TX Panhandle. However, a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough could aid in development of a couple stronger storms capable of hail and isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support the potential for multiple severe storms across the region into this evening. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35650281 36910194 36920076 36530062 35910072 34850110 34460149 34410174 34330315 35650281 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WSW EHA TO 10 ENE GCK TO 25 SW HLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-069-081-083-097-105-113-119- 135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-195-190040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FORD GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BKX TO 20 ENE AXN TO 25 W BRD TO 50 NNE ELO. ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-043-047- 053-059-063-065-067-075-079-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-105- 115-123-127-129-131-137-139-141-143-145-147-153-161-163-165-171- 173-182340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOK COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAKE LE SUEUR LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PINE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE TODD WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BKX TO 20 ENE AXN TO 25 W BRD TO 50 NNE ELO. ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-043-047- 053-059-063-065-067-075-079-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-105- 115-123-127-129-131-137-139-141-143-145-147-153-161-163-165-171- 173-182340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOK COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAKE LE SUEUR LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PINE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE TODD WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 433 TORNADO MN 181825Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Minnesota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front should pose a threat for a few tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60-70 mph, and large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter as they spread east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Ely MN to 30 miles east southeast of Worthington MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 18 22:15:14 UTC 2024.

MD 1324 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...north-central KS to western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434... Valid 182040Z - 182215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434 continues. SUMMARY...A mix of isolated severe hail and wind should transition to predominately wind over the next few hours into early evening from north-central Kansas into western Iowa. A tornado or two will also remain possible. DISCUSSION...A thin, but increasingly extensive line of thunderstorms is ongoing along a southeast-moving cold front from northwest IA through north-central KS. Several cores within this developing line have had MRMS MESH values reaching into the 1-1.75 inch diameter range. Bulk of this activity thus far appears to be forming on the immediate cool side of the front. As further cold pool strengthening occurs in the next couple hours, some acceleration of clusters eastward should occur along the KS-NE border into western IA. This should foster an uptick in wind gust intensity to around 55-70 mph before 00Z. ..Grams.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 41429741 42319642 42749613 42919575 42859532 42429525 41469578 40779646 39519772 39119887 39239934 40169862 41119770 41429741 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-067-069-081-083-097-101- 105-113-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-189-195- 182240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-067-069-081-083-097-101- 105-113-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-189-195- 182240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1325 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...West Central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435... Valid 182058Z - 182200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, damaging winds, and some landspout tornadoes continues for the watch area. DISCUSSION...The severe thunderstorm threat continues across portions of west-central Kansas as a cold front progresses slowly southeastward. Additional storm development is expected further south and west along the cold front this afternoon. The primary threat is for large hail and damaging wind gusts, as initially superceullar storms begin to grow upscale into linear segments. Additionally, SPC Mesoanalysis indicates ongoing supercells in west-central Kansas are located in a region of large surface vorticity along the frontal boundary. With relatively slow boundary and storm motions supportive of long residence times, enhanced stretching is favorable for landspout tornado activity. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 37040175 37540137 37850105 38240073 38660051 39080012 39539974 39619942 39459902 38949905 38109960 37619991 37160043 36990091 36950151 37040175 Read more

MD 1323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northwestern Pennsylvania into far southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182024Z - 182200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized concentration of damaging gusts is possible over the next few hours along the PA/NY border region. Given the spatially and temporally confined nature of the damaging gust threat, a WW issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of thunderstorms with a history of damaging gusts (and at least one measured 50+ kt gust) has developed over far northeastern OH. This cluster is slowly propagating northeast as convective outflow spreads to the southeast, overturning the ambient airmass in the process. Weak deep-layer west-southwesterly flow pivoting around the Mid-Atlantic anticyclone suggests that the ongoing cluster, should it persist, will continue moving east-northeast. As such, the northeast flank of the ongoing cluster may not gust out and undercut convection for at least a few more hours. In this time-frame, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE will support stronger storm cores capable of producing a focused corridor locally damaging gusts. However, the damaging gusts should be contained within a small area, and convection may become outflow dominant and undercut sooner than expected. A WW issuance remains unlikely in the short-term, but convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of greater upscale growth and subsequent damaging wind potential. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41608068 42008008 42387943 42487866 42177834 41667850 41387912 41257994 41278051 41338069 41608068 Read more

WW 435 SEVERE TSTM KS 181940Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen along a cold front this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large hail up to around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts of 60-80 mph. The threat for severe winds may increase through the evening if one or more bowing clusters develops and spreads eastward into central Kansas. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially if any supercells can persist across southwest Kansas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Russell KS to 35 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1322 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 433... FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...central to northeast MN Concerning...Tornado Watch 433... Valid 182018Z - 182145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues. SUMMARY...Primary tornado threat within WW 433 into early evening appears to exist across central to northeast Minnesota with semi-discrete supercells near the surface warm front. DISCUSSION...More prominent, deeper convection within WW 433 has been centered across west-central to northeast MN. Multiple, low-level supercells have been noted along the surface warm front thus far from central MN northeastward. Additional supercells may develop farther south-southwest with modified 18Z MPX sounding indicative of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH around 200 m2/s2. With weak effective shear above the LCL, tornado and damaging wind should remain the primary threats as hail magnitudes remain marginal. These threats will likely focus through early evening from the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range and Arrowhead regions. ..Grams.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47239393 47779219 48069146 48179108 48089063 47979043 47669095 47179179 46869228 46289254 45979311 45729482 45799522 46189542 46669459 47239393 Read more