Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A steady westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona on Thursday. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas were included at this time but this risk will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1333 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeast Indiana...southern Lower Michigan and northern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191747Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with the potential for some clustering. Damaging gusts and isolated hail are possible and a WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1740 UTC, early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed initial updrafts were deepening across parts of eastern IN and northwestern OH along the western edge of a strong east coast ridge. Intermixed with scattered high clouds, strong diurnal heating is ongoing along a subtle confluence axis aiding in further vertical development. Observational trends and hi-res guidance suggest scattered storm development is likely over the next couple of hours as convective temperatures are breached and remaining inhibition is removed. 70s F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates are supporting moderate buoyancy (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) more than adequate for strong updrafts. Area VADs show a slight enhancement of mid-level flow along the periphery of the broad ridge over the eastern US. While not overly strong, bulk shear values of 20-25 kt should be sufficient for sustained multi-cells with some potential for clustering. Drier mid-level air and steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for a few more robust downdrafts capable of damaging severe gusts. A few instances of marginally severe hail are also possible with the longer lived and deeper updrafts given the relatively large buoyancy and somewhat enhanced vertical shear. With the potential for some stronger clusters of storms to develop and persist, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon for portions of OH, IN and Lower MI. ..Lyons/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 40018499 40638543 41238538 42148457 42688375 42828319 42668254 41988301 41738293 41608256 41558212 41598182 41588148 41408147 41308151 40698209 39828360 39808378 39778418 40008485 40018499 Read more

MD 1332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of the TX Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191643Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic waterspouts may move onshore as a brief tornado before likely weakening inland. Overall threat may remain relatively lower-end in the near-term, but will continue to be monitored for a narrow tornado watch. DISCUSSION...Several offshore circulations have been noted late this morning but with a consistent weakening trend as convection has approached the coast. As of 1635Z, near-term waterspout threat appears roughly centered from the Galveston to Corpus Christi vicinity, where 0-1 km shear of 25-35 kts persists in HGX/CRP VWP data. Visible satellite and radar trends suggest a 30-90 min relative lull in convection may occur along the coast between the ongoing band of cells and another band of cells 60-80 nm offshore. This break may become necessary for some increase in surface-based destabilization along the coast as modified 12Z CRP/BRO soundings suggest it remains limited. If this occurs, an increase in brief tornado potential may be realized this afternoon. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 29209503 28699529 28229636 27279717 26679729 26749770 27959729 28869618 29209503 Read more

MD 1331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1331 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NY into New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191610Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic, localized downbursts with gusts from 50-60 mph along with small hail of 0.5-1.0 inch in diameter will be possible with pulse-type thunderstorms through this afternoon. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across parts of eastern NY into VT, with increasingly agitated Cu downstream into NH and western ME. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should occur through the afternoon amid a moderate buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, driven by 71-74 F surface dew points in lower elevations. Deep-layer shear is weak per the CXX VWP data and is expected to remain so, especially with eastern extent in New England. Slightly greater mid to upper flow upstream over the Lower Great Lakes, per the 12Z BUF sounding, may support weakly organized clustering by peak heating. But slow-moving, pulse-type storms should largely dominate. Primary threat should be localized downbursts with strong gusts capable of producing sporadic tree damage. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42007348 42987507 44657409 45107373 45817031 45606941 45026949 44177051 42897213 42007348 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...The Northeast/New England... On the northern fringe of a west-to-east-oriented mid-level ridge from the central U.S. into the western Atlantic, a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies will reside atop the Great Lakes region and into northern New England. As a short-wave trough shifts across Quebec toward the Maritimes, a cold front sagging southeastward across the Northeast will likely focus scattered storm development as the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the afternoon. Though shear should remain somewhat modest with respect to supporting well-organized convection, a few stronger multicell storms/clusters are expected. Locally strong/damaging gusts are expected with the strongest convection, with marginal hail also possible locally. Risk should diminish after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization. ...Central High Plains... A weak low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains area during the afternoon, along a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone extending from the Midwest into the central Plains. As the boundary layer heats/mixes during the day ahead of the low, resulting CAPE development will eventually support initiation of isolated/high-based storms -- initially over southeastern Wyoming and into northeastern Colorado. With low-level southerlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, ample shear for a few stronger/organized storms is apparent in model forecasts. As such, damaging gusts -- aided by some sub-cloud evaporative potential -- will be possible locally. Hail may also occur with a few of the strongest storms early in the convective cycle. With time, some congealing/upscale growth may occur, with convection shifting off the higher terrain and spreading eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle during the evening, where local risk for gusty/damaging winds will be possible, before storms weaken nocturnally. ..Goss.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico today, bringing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some wetting rains will occur across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of the deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph (occasionally around 20 mph). Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph will develop this afternoon overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more