Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

WW 0549 Status Updates
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WW 0548 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 548 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-033-037-041-043-047-053-059- 063-065-067-073-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-117- 121-123-127-129-131-133-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-161- 163-165-171-173-280140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BENTON BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DOUGLAS FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

MD 1813 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1813 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272154Z - 280030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next 2 to 3 hours across parts of northern Minnesota. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed once the exact timing of cell initiation becomes clear. DISCUSSION...At the surface, a 1008 mb low is currently analyzed just to the north of the U.S.-Canadian border in far western Ontario. A front is located to the southwest of the low, with a very moist airmass in place over much of northern Minnesota ahead of the front. Surface heating early this afternoon has contributed strong instability across most of this airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE generally in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the front moves southeastward across northern Minnesota late this afternoon and early this evening, low-level convergence is forecast to increase near or ahead of the boundary. This will likely result in convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage early this evening, with a severe threat developing. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support an isolated large hail and wind-damage threat. As convective coverage increases, the severe threat is expected to gradually shift eastward toward the Arrowhead of Minnesota. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 48289522 48559482 48679423 48609332 48389219 48199143 47939097 47649096 47419106 46969190 46869312 47099469 47459526 47959535 48289522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1814 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Southeast VA into northeast NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272242Z - 280015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will spread southward through the early evening. DISCUSSION...An extensive area of convection and composite outflow is moving southward across southern VA early this evening. Within this large area of convection, a few embedded clusters have accelerated southeastward and produced reports of wind damage. South of the composite outflow, a sea breeze boundary is moving westward across far southeast VA and northeast NC. South of the outflow and west of the sea breeze, temperatures remain rather hot, with MLCAPE still in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Moderate MLCAPE also persists within the very moist environment to the cool side of the sea breeze. Effective shear is marginally supportive of organized convection, though weak low-level flow will continue to result in a tendency for outflow to outpace convection in some areas. Localized corridors of wind damage may spread southward through the early evening, especially near boundary intersections, and also where convection is able to keep pace with the outflow. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36727951 37038028 37398011 37667978 37607917 37257695 36817591 36427576 36087594 36157748 36297844 36587906 36727951 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1816 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1816 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Northern Nebraska and South-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272333Z - 280130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop early this evening from parts of north-central Nebraska into south-central South Dakota. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over south-central South Dakota. A thermal axis currently extends southward from the low into central Nebraska, along which temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s F. To the east of the thermal axis, surface dewpoints are generally in the mid 70s to the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. Multiple cells are developing near to the thermal axis. These cells are expected to develop into thunderstorms and move eastward across northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota early this evening. This area is located near the southern edge of an upper-level jet, which is helping to create moderate deep-layer shear over much of the region. The instability and shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat for several hours this evening. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44300010 44579954 44589904 44489866 44119843 43569846 42859884 42089958 41860009 41840069 42040128 42490141 43230114 44300010 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1815 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1815 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272325Z - 280130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may increase into this evening. DISCUSSION...Storms have been increasing in coverage across parts of western/central MT over the last 1-2 hours. Low-level moisture is generally modest across the region, though steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (locally higher). Guidance suggests that a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving along the periphery of the central Plains upper ridge will continue to aid in storm development through the evening. Effective shear of 35-45 kt is sufficient for supercells and/or organized clusters, though the threat may remain rather isolated in the short term, due to the marginal instability. If a strong cell or two (such as the one moving across far southwest Alberta that may approach northwest MT) can become established, then a localized severe hail and wind threat will be possible. Watch issuance is considered unlikely in the short term due to the anticipated isolated coverage, but trends will be monitored for an uptick in organized convection. Some guidance suggests organized upscale growth may be possible later tonight, as convection spreads eastward into a somewhat more moist and unstable environment. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 49081333 49140907 48920734 46980670 45890831 46031003 46911253 47831304 48991389 49081333 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1814 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Southeast VA into northeast NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272242Z - 280015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will spread southward through the early evening. DISCUSSION...An extensive area of convection and composite outflow is moving southward across southern VA early this evening. Within this large area of convection, a few embedded clusters have accelerated southeastward and produced reports of wind damage. South of the composite outflow, a sea breeze boundary is moving westward across far southeast VA and northeast NC. South of the outflow and west of the sea breeze, temperatures remain rather hot, with MLCAPE still in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Moderate MLCAPE also persists within the very moist environment to the cool side of the sea breeze. Effective shear is marginally supportive of organized convection, though weak low-level flow will continue to result in a tendency for outflow to outpace convection in some areas. Localized corridors of wind damage may spread southward through the early evening, especially near boundary intersections, and also where convection is able to keep pace with the outflow. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36727951 37038028 37398011 37667978 37607917 37257695 36817591 36427576 36087594 36157748 36297844 36587906 36727951 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1813 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1813 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272154Z - 280030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next 2 to 3 hours across parts of northern Minnesota. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed once the exact timing of cell initiation becomes clear. DISCUSSION...At the surface, a 1008 mb low is currently analyzed just to the north of the U.S.-Canadian border in far western Ontario. A front is located to the southwest of the low, with a very moist airmass in place over much of northern Minnesota ahead of the front. Surface heating early this afternoon has contributed strong instability across most of this airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE generally in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the front moves southeastward across northern Minnesota late this afternoon and early this evening, low-level convergence is forecast to increase near or ahead of the boundary. This will likely result in convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage early this evening, with a severe threat developing. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support an isolated large hail and wind-damage threat. As convective coverage increases, the severe threat is expected to gradually shift eastward toward the Arrowhead of Minnesota. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 48289522 48559482 48679423 48609332 48389219 48199143 47939097 47649096 47419106 46969190 46869312 47099469 47459526 47959535 48289522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0548 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 548 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-033-037-041-043-047-053-059- 063-065-067-073-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-117- 121-123-127-129-131-133-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-161- 163-165-171-173-280040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BENTON BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DOUGLAS FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0549 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 549 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-280040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CASS COOK CROW WING ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE PINE ST. LOUIS WIC031-280040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS LSZ140-141-142-143-144-145-162-280040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN Read more

WW 549 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 272230Z - 280600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 549 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota Far Northwest Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front moving southeastward through northern MN. This airmass ahead of this cold front is very unstable and strongly sheared, and supportive of supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Brainerd MN to 65 miles northeast of Silver Bay MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 548... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 548 SEVERE TSTM MN SD 272145Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 548 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Minnesota Eastern South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 445 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across west-central MN and adjacent far northeastern SD. These storms developed in a strongly unstable and sheared environment and are expected to persist through the afternoon. Additional severe storm development is possible across eastern SD as well. Large to very large hail and strong gusts are possible with these storms. A brief tornado could also occur. Over time, the development of a southward-moving convective line is possible, with the threat for strong to severe gusts continuing within this line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Watertown SD to 30 miles north northeast of Minneapolis MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0548 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 548 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-033-037-041-043-047-053-059- 063-065-067-073-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-117- 121-123-127-129-131-133-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-161- 163-165-171-173-272340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BENTON BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DOUGLAS FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE STEVENS SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE Read more

WW 0549 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 549 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/27/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-272340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN CARLTON CASS COOK CROW WING ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE PINE ST. LOUIS WIC031-272340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS LSZ140-141-142-143-144-145-162-272340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN Read more

MD 1812 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1812 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern South Dakota...Western and Central Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 272125Z - 272200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue to develop over the next couple of hours from northeastern South Dakota into western and central Minnesota. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over far western Minnesota. This activity is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery. The storms are located to the northeast of a bullseye of very strong instability. Across northeastern South Dakota, MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 5000 to 6000 J/kg range. Further east, the airmass is less unstable. As low-level flow increases late this afternoon and early this evening, convective coverage will gradually increase. In addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate deep-layer shear across this unstable airmass. 0-6 km shear is estimated by the RAP to be in the 35 to 40 knot range, which will likely support supercell development. Supercells will have potential for large hail and wind damage. A brief tornado will be possible with most of intense of storms. In addition, an organized line segment will also be possible. This mode would be more favorable for damaging wind gusts. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 46129592 46269508 46209410 45939378 45509390 44359557 43639603 43099661 42879752 42999800 43709852 44759883 45359839 45889704 46129592 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more