Severe Storms

MD 1818 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548... FOR FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1818 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Far Southern Minnesota...Far Southeast South Dakota...Far Northern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548... Valid 280247Z - 280445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to continue into far southern Minnesota, far southeast South Dakota and northern Iowa over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently ongoing from northeast South Dakota eastward across southern Minnesota. Additional storms are ongoing near a surface low in southeast South Dakota. To the east of the surface low, a moist and unstable airmass is in place, with the RAP showing MLCAPE ranging from near 5500 J/kg in southeast South Dakota to around 2500 J/kg in northeast Iowa. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, is supporting continued convective development this evening. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Sioux Falls, South Dakota has 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, and the RAP suggests this is representative for much of the airmass to the south of the ongoing convection. This will support threat for wind damage and hail with the more intense parts of the line over the next couple hours, mainly over southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota were the strongest instability is present. As the convection moves southward, a gradual downtrend in the severe threat is expected due to less favorable storm modes, especially over parts of north-central and northeast Iowa where the RAP shows a less supportive shear environment. ..Broyles.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 43029806 43589819 43989806 44379768 44449717 44269613 44159546 44109396 44319292 44209199 43849141 43439125 43059133 42699166 42499246 42489299 42499466 42589671 42779756 43029806 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0548 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ABR TO 40 S VVV TO 15 NW RWF TO 35 W MSP TO 45 NE MSP. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-015-033-037-043-047-049-063-079-081-083-091-101-103-105- 117-127-129-131-133-139-143-147-161-163-165-173-280440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE JACKSON LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK SCOTT SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE SDC003-005-011-015-023-025-035-039-043-053-057-061-073-077-079- 087-097-099-101-111-115-280440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX CLARK Read more

MD 1817 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548... FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1817 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Far Eastern South Dakota...South-central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548... Valid 280019Z - 280215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat, associated with a convective complex from eastern South Dakota into south-central Minnesota, is expected to gradually shift eastward and southward across southern Minnesota over the next few hours. Although a brief tornado will be possible, large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. A new weather watch may need to be considered to the east of the current watch. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows an east-to-west cluster of strong to severe storms from near Watertown, South Dakota eastward to just west of Minneapolis, Minnesota. This relatively large cluster is located along a strong gradient of instability, which extends southeastward into northern Iowa. These storms are forecast to develop southeastward along this gradient over the next few hours. The eastern edge of the complex may also affect parts of far southeastern Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, along with 0-6 km in the 30 to 45 knot range according to the RAP and 00Z Minneapolis sounding, should support a continued severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. Wind damage will be likely within and near the faster moving bowing line segments. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45739592 45399306 45009191 44339170 43749205 43559271 43579393 43589436 43609563 43639698 44049749 44409753 44869745 45299711 45579660 45739592 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0548 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ATY TO 40 NNW RWF TO 30 SSE STC TO 40 NNE MSP. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-015-019-023-033-037-043-047-049-053-063-073-079-081-083- 085-091-101-103-105-117-123-127-129-131-133-139-143-147-161-163- 165-171-173-280240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN JACKSON LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK SCOTT SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE SDC003-005-011-015-023-025-029-035-039-043-051-053-057-061-073- 077-079-087-097-099-101-111-115-280240- SD Read more

WW 0548 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ATY TO 40 NNW RWF TO 30 SSE STC TO 40 NNE MSP. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ABR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 548 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-015-019-023-033-037-043-047-049-053-063-073-079-081-083- 085-091-101-103-105-117-123-127-129-131-133-139-143-147-161-163- 165-171-173-280240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN JACKSON LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK SCOTT SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE SDC003-005-011-015-023-025-029-035-039-043-051-053-057-061-073- 077-079-087-097-099-101-111-115-280240- SD Read more

WW 0549 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW DLH TO 30 ENE HIB TO 55 N ELO. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-031-075-115-280240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON COOK LAKE PINE WIC031-280240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS LSZ140-141-142-143-144-145-162-280240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN Read more

WW 0549 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW DLH TO 30 ENE HIB TO 55 N ELO. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-031-075-115-280240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON COOK LAKE PINE WIC031-280240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS LSZ140-141-142-143-144-145-162-280240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN Read more

WW 0549 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW DLH TO 30 ENE HIB TO 55 N ELO. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-031-075-115-280240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON COOK LAKE PINE WIC031-280240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS LSZ140-141-142-143-144-145-162-280240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN Read more

WW 0549 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW DLH TO 30 ENE HIB TO 55 N ELO. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-031-075-115-280240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON COOK LAKE PINE WIC031-280240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS LSZ140-141-142-143-144-145-162-280240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN Read more

WW 0549 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW DLH TO 30 ENE HIB TO 55 N ELO. ..BROYLES..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 549 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-031-075-115-280240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON COOK LAKE PINE WIC031-280240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS LSZ140-141-142-143-144-145-162-280240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN Read more

WW 549 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 272230Z - 280600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 549 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota Far Northwest Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front moving southeastward through northern MN. This airmass ahead of this cold front is very unstable and strongly sheared, and supportive of supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Brainerd MN to 65 miles northeast of Silver Bay MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 548... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1815 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1815 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272325Z - 280130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may increase into this evening. DISCUSSION...Storms have been increasing in coverage across parts of western/central MT over the last 1-2 hours. Low-level moisture is generally modest across the region, though steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (locally higher). Guidance suggests that a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving along the periphery of the central Plains upper ridge will continue to aid in storm development through the evening. Effective shear of 35-45 kt is sufficient for supercells and/or organized clusters, though the threat may remain rather isolated in the short term, due to the marginal instability. If a strong cell or two (such as the one moving across far southwest Alberta that may approach northwest MT) can become established, then a localized severe hail and wind threat will be possible. Watch issuance is considered unlikely in the short term due to the anticipated isolated coverage, but trends will be monitored for an uptick in organized convection. Some guidance suggests organized upscale growth may be possible later tonight, as convection spreads eastward into a somewhat more moist and unstable environment. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 49081333 49140907 48920734 46980670 45890831 46031003 46911253 47831304 48991389 49081333 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1816 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1816 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Northern Nebraska and South-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272333Z - 280130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop early this evening from parts of north-central Nebraska into south-central South Dakota. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over south-central South Dakota. A thermal axis currently extends southward from the low into central Nebraska, along which temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s F. To the east of the thermal axis, surface dewpoints are generally in the mid 70s to the lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate to strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. Multiple cells are developing near to the thermal axis. These cells are expected to develop into thunderstorms and move eastward across northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota early this evening. This area is located near the southern edge of an upper-level jet, which is helping to create moderate deep-layer shear over much of the region. The instability and shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat for several hours this evening. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44300010 44579954 44589904 44489866 44119843 43569846 42859884 42089958 41860009 41840069 42040128 42490141 43230114 44300010 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 Read more