Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, an upper ridge will remain in place over the CONUS, with mid-level moisture continuing to pivot around the ridge across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A dry boundary layer will develop during the afternoon and support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. As in Day 1, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will dominate the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the upper ridge through the period. By afternoon, a deep, dry boundary layer (potentially extending to 500 mb) will develop in advance of thunderstorm initiation. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, suggesting that at least a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced given the possibility of lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will dominate the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the upper ridge through the period. By afternoon, a deep, dry boundary layer (potentially extending to 500 mb) will develop in advance of thunderstorm initiation. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, suggesting that at least a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced given the possibility of lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will dominate the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the upper ridge through the period. By afternoon, a deep, dry boundary layer (potentially extending to 500 mb) will develop in advance of thunderstorm initiation. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, suggesting that at least a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced given the possibility of lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will dominate the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the upper ridge through the period. By afternoon, a deep, dry boundary layer (potentially extending to 500 mb) will develop in advance of thunderstorm initiation. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, suggesting that at least a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced given the possibility of lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will dominate the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the upper ridge through the period. By afternoon, a deep, dry boundary layer (potentially extending to 500 mb) will develop in advance of thunderstorm initiation. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, suggesting that at least a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced given the possibility of lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will dominate the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the upper ridge through the period. By afternoon, a deep, dry boundary layer (potentially extending to 500 mb) will develop in advance of thunderstorm initiation. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, suggesting that at least a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced given the possibility of lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will dominate the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the upper ridge through the period. By afternoon, a deep, dry boundary layer (potentially extending to 500 mb) will develop in advance of thunderstorm initiation. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, suggesting that at least a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced given the possibility of lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will dominate the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the upper ridge through the period. By afternoon, a deep, dry boundary layer (potentially extending to 500 mb) will develop in advance of thunderstorm initiation. Forecast soundings show inverted-v profiles, suggesting that at least a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced given the possibility of lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity... The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently, there has been limited signal for development this far east during Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now. In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited model support for this. The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations. Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly. Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity... Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity... The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently, there has been limited signal for development this far east during Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now. In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited model support for this. The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations. Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly. Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity... Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity... The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently, there has been limited signal for development this far east during Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now. In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited model support for this. The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations. Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly. Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity... Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity... The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently, there has been limited signal for development this far east during Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now. In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited model support for this. The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations. Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly. Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity... Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity... The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently, there has been limited signal for development this far east during Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now. In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited model support for this. The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations. Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly. Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity... Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity... The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently, there has been limited signal for development this far east during Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now. In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited model support for this. The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations. Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly. Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity... Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity... The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently, there has been limited signal for development this far east during Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now. In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited model support for this. The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations. Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly. Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity... Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity... The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently, there has been limited signal for development this far east during Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now. In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited model support for this. The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ...Montana into the central High Plains... Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations. Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly. Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity... Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/28/2025 Read more