Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEVADA... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Cascades. Mid-level flow is strong enough to support fast storm motions, but with increasing precipitable water and overall thunderstorm coverage should limit dry thunderstorm potential to early on in the thunderstorm life cycle. As such, have left the isolated dry thunderstorm area as is. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as upper ridging amplifies over the Rockies into the Plains today. Surface cyclone development is likely to the lee of the Cascades by afternoon, promoting ample buoyancy, lift, and shear for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Otherwise, strong downslope and isallobaric flow across the western Great Basin ahead of the upper trough/surface low will promote widespread dry and breezy conditions capable of supporting wildfire spread. ...Along and to the lee of the Cascades - Thunderstorms... By late afternoon, multiple strong thunderstorms should develop amid strong flow aloft. Some of the storms may be high-based, with a couple of dry strikes possible. Of greater concern is the potential for erratic and strong to possibly severe gusts, which may exacerbate ongoing fire concerns, as well as with ignitions from strikes accompanying the storms. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained. ...Harney Basin and western Great Basin - Dry/Windy Conditions... By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. When also considering the contribution of isallobaric flow, winds may sustain above 20 mph, particularly over portions of the Harney Basin and in southwestern Nevada, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Otherwise, Elevated highlights remain over a broader area where dry and breezy conditions are expected to overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEVADA... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Cascades. Mid-level flow is strong enough to support fast storm motions, but with increasing precipitable water and overall thunderstorm coverage should limit dry thunderstorm potential to early on in the thunderstorm life cycle. As such, have left the isolated dry thunderstorm area as is. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as upper ridging amplifies over the Rockies into the Plains today. Surface cyclone development is likely to the lee of the Cascades by afternoon, promoting ample buoyancy, lift, and shear for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Otherwise, strong downslope and isallobaric flow across the western Great Basin ahead of the upper trough/surface low will promote widespread dry and breezy conditions capable of supporting wildfire spread. ...Along and to the lee of the Cascades - Thunderstorms... By late afternoon, multiple strong thunderstorms should develop amid strong flow aloft. Some of the storms may be high-based, with a couple of dry strikes possible. Of greater concern is the potential for erratic and strong to possibly severe gusts, which may exacerbate ongoing fire concerns, as well as with ignitions from strikes accompanying the storms. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained. ...Harney Basin and western Great Basin - Dry/Windy Conditions... By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. When also considering the contribution of isallobaric flow, winds may sustain above 20 mph, particularly over portions of the Harney Basin and in southwestern Nevada, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Otherwise, Elevated highlights remain over a broader area where dry and breezy conditions are expected to overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEVADA... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Cascades. Mid-level flow is strong enough to support fast storm motions, but with increasing precipitable water and overall thunderstorm coverage should limit dry thunderstorm potential to early on in the thunderstorm life cycle. As such, have left the isolated dry thunderstorm area as is. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as upper ridging amplifies over the Rockies into the Plains today. Surface cyclone development is likely to the lee of the Cascades by afternoon, promoting ample buoyancy, lift, and shear for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Otherwise, strong downslope and isallobaric flow across the western Great Basin ahead of the upper trough/surface low will promote widespread dry and breezy conditions capable of supporting wildfire spread. ...Along and to the lee of the Cascades - Thunderstorms... By late afternoon, multiple strong thunderstorms should develop amid strong flow aloft. Some of the storms may be high-based, with a couple of dry strikes possible. Of greater concern is the potential for erratic and strong to possibly severe gusts, which may exacerbate ongoing fire concerns, as well as with ignitions from strikes accompanying the storms. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained. ...Harney Basin and western Great Basin - Dry/Windy Conditions... By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. When also considering the contribution of isallobaric flow, winds may sustain above 20 mph, particularly over portions of the Harney Basin and in southwestern Nevada, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Otherwise, Elevated highlights remain over a broader area where dry and breezy conditions are expected to overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEVADA... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Cascades. Mid-level flow is strong enough to support fast storm motions, but with increasing precipitable water and overall thunderstorm coverage should limit dry thunderstorm potential to early on in the thunderstorm life cycle. As such, have left the isolated dry thunderstorm area as is. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as upper ridging amplifies over the Rockies into the Plains today. Surface cyclone development is likely to the lee of the Cascades by afternoon, promoting ample buoyancy, lift, and shear for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Otherwise, strong downslope and isallobaric flow across the western Great Basin ahead of the upper trough/surface low will promote widespread dry and breezy conditions capable of supporting wildfire spread. ...Along and to the lee of the Cascades - Thunderstorms... By late afternoon, multiple strong thunderstorms should develop amid strong flow aloft. Some of the storms may be high-based, with a couple of dry strikes possible. Of greater concern is the potential for erratic and strong to possibly severe gusts, which may exacerbate ongoing fire concerns, as well as with ignitions from strikes accompanying the storms. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained. ...Harney Basin and western Great Basin - Dry/Windy Conditions... By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. When also considering the contribution of isallobaric flow, winds may sustain above 20 mph, particularly over portions of the Harney Basin and in southwestern Nevada, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Otherwise, Elevated highlights remain over a broader area where dry and breezy conditions are expected to overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEVADA... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Cascades. Mid-level flow is strong enough to support fast storm motions, but with increasing precipitable water and overall thunderstorm coverage should limit dry thunderstorm potential to early on in the thunderstorm life cycle. As such, have left the isolated dry thunderstorm area as is. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as upper ridging amplifies over the Rockies into the Plains today. Surface cyclone development is likely to the lee of the Cascades by afternoon, promoting ample buoyancy, lift, and shear for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Otherwise, strong downslope and isallobaric flow across the western Great Basin ahead of the upper trough/surface low will promote widespread dry and breezy conditions capable of supporting wildfire spread. ...Along and to the lee of the Cascades - Thunderstorms... By late afternoon, multiple strong thunderstorms should develop amid strong flow aloft. Some of the storms may be high-based, with a couple of dry strikes possible. Of greater concern is the potential for erratic and strong to possibly severe gusts, which may exacerbate ongoing fire concerns, as well as with ignitions from strikes accompanying the storms. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained. ...Harney Basin and western Great Basin - Dry/Windy Conditions... By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. When also considering the contribution of isallobaric flow, winds may sustain above 20 mph, particularly over portions of the Harney Basin and in southwestern Nevada, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Otherwise, Elevated highlights remain over a broader area where dry and breezy conditions are expected to overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEVADA... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Cascades. Mid-level flow is strong enough to support fast storm motions, but with increasing precipitable water and overall thunderstorm coverage should limit dry thunderstorm potential to early on in the thunderstorm life cycle. As such, have left the isolated dry thunderstorm area as is. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast as upper ridging amplifies over the Rockies into the Plains today. Surface cyclone development is likely to the lee of the Cascades by afternoon, promoting ample buoyancy, lift, and shear for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Otherwise, strong downslope and isallobaric flow across the western Great Basin ahead of the upper trough/surface low will promote widespread dry and breezy conditions capable of supporting wildfire spread. ...Along and to the lee of the Cascades - Thunderstorms... By late afternoon, multiple strong thunderstorms should develop amid strong flow aloft. Some of the storms may be high-based, with a couple of dry strikes possible. Of greater concern is the potential for erratic and strong to possibly severe gusts, which may exacerbate ongoing fire concerns, as well as with ignitions from strikes accompanying the storms. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained. ...Harney Basin and western Great Basin - Dry/Windy Conditions... By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range as the boundary layer mixes. When also considering the contribution of isallobaric flow, winds may sustain above 20 mph, particularly over portions of the Harney Basin and in southwestern Nevada, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Otherwise, Elevated highlights remain over a broader area where dry and breezy conditions are expected to overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ...UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ...Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...UTAH...AND PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley mainly this afternoon into the early evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also forecast for Utah and in the vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Lower Great Lakes into the central/southern Appalachians and OH Valley... A mid-level low and associated trough will slowly move east today and reach the Upper OH Valley/Appalachians tonight as a mid-level anticyclone remains centered over northeast NM. High-level diffluent flow will be noted across the OH Valley into the Mid South and be favorable for scattered thunderstorms developing across much of this region coincident with strong heating. A front will gradually shift east across the OH Valley with this boundary becoming more diffuse in part related to convective outflow across the Mid South/Ozarks. Stronger mid-level flow aiding in storm organization will primarily extend from the Great Smoky Mtns northward into KY/OH/WV. Organized multicells and transient supercells are possible with scattered coverage of severe wind/hail possible with these storms. Observational trends of an MCV over Middle TN moving eastward into the southern Appalachians and the 00z MPAS-NSSL model run data, lend the possibility for a mesoscale corridor of higher thunderstorm coverage and greater damaging-wind potential for the western Carolinas and perhaps into central portions of AL. Limited confidence in this scenario precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Lower MS Valley into north TX... Morning thunderstorms over the OK/AR border associated with low-level WAA may continue into the midday with incipient outflow progressively shunting additional storms/new development farther west and south across eastern OK. Model guidance indicates at least isolated storms potentially developing within an east-west corridor from MS westward into north/northwest TX later today. Forecast soundings indicate severe microbursts will be possible with the more intense cores. Have adjusted low-severe probabilities to trend farther west/southwest based on this forecast scenario. ...Utah Region... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a northward-moving shortwave trough over southern NV and extrapolation has this feature moving into northern UT by mid afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to begin developing by late morning and spreading north-northeast within a strongly sheared environment. Increasing cloud cover and some limit on the quality of lapse rates will temper overall buoyancy. However, some organization into small clusters yielding severe gusts will be the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Western OR/Southwest WA... Strong 500mb speed max will round the base of the offshore trough and translate across northern CA into eastern OR by early evening. Left exit region of this feature will aid UVV near the higher terrain and cooling/moistening mid-levels will contribute to modest buoyancy along the cyclonic side of the speed max. Forecast soundings exhibit strongly sheared profiles and isolated supercells are expected to develop, then spread north-northeast as a short-wave trough ejects into southern WA. Hail/wind are possible with these storms. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/17/2024 Read more