Severe Storms

MD 1574 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 517... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of northern New England Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 102053Z - 102230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado risk will continue in WW 517, particularly near the effective warm front. A new tornado watch is possible into New Hampshire and far western Maine. DISCUSSION...Discrete supercells continue to move through central/eastern New York and into Vermont. A few weaker, but rotating, cells have developed southwest of Burlington, VT, recently. Discrete storms, particularly those near the effective warm front, will pose the greatest risk of a tornado in addition to damaging winds. Regional VAD winds from central/eastern New York into Vermont show improved low-level shear over the last couple of hours. While destabilization has been a bit more modest into New Hampshire/western Maine, there is a possibility that severe storms will progress into these areas this evening. With continued mid-level ascent and a strengthening low-level jet, a tornado watch will need to be considered farther east from WW 517. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42457675 43727597 44177413 44297290 44237148 44157098 43807055 43397080 43037172 42627365 41497635 41227692 41287744 42457675 Read more

MD 1573 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...Central Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518... Valid 102022Z - 102215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518 continues. SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible along the cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds will be the primary risk late this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Lack of mid-level ascent has likely contributed to storm coverage and intensity being rather low near the Blue Ridge. However, with the cold front moving through the region, additional storms may develop and organize along this front late this afternoon. Temperatures broadly in the low/mid 90s F have contributed to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will be greater farther north given the proximity to the mid-level jet, but cold pool mergers could lead to linear structures farther south. Damaging winds remain the primary threat. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37227942 38547856 39857820 40177758 40187634 39697615 38317700 37517757 37077782 36907807 36977866 37227942 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the California coast will begin moving northward along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin. Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions. ...Northwest... Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds, though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there may be locally critical conditions. By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or addition of dry thunder areas. There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities at this time. ...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah... Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0520 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 520 TORNADO ME NH 102155Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maine Northern and Central New Hampshire * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward from Vermont through this evening. The strongest activity should pose some threat for a couple of tornadoes, along with strong to locally damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Mount Washington NH to 30 miles east of Mount Washington NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...WW 519... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more