Severe Storms

MD 1572 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Nebraska...southwestern Iowa...northwestern Missouri...northeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101912Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, and perhaps increasing potential for strong to locally severe gusts, while spreading southward through 5-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has recently begun to intensify across south central Iowa, likely in response to increasing inflow of a destabilizing boundary-layer air mass characterized by mixed-layer CAPE up to around 2000 J/kg. This is occurring near the leading edge of a digging mid-level cold pool, which is forecast to continue spreading southward into the lower Missouri Valley through 22-23Z. This is embedded within relatively modest (20-25 kt) deep-layer west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow, but shear along the southwestern flank of the associated weak surface cold pool may become increasingly conducive to the evolution of at least short-lived supercell structures. New thunderstorm development is underway along this boundary, in the wake of the lead forward propagating cluster, and further intensification of this activity seems probable during the next few hours. In the presence of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, stronger cells may pose a risk for severe hail, and the risk for locally strong to severe surface gusts may also become more prominent by early evening. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41439707 41439647 41429570 40909372 39719284 39669500 39949625 41199752 41439707 Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...TOP...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-039-051-053-071-129-137-145-159-173-175-177-185- 102240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAYNE KSC013-043-131-102240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN DONIPHAN NEMAHA MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087- 103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-171-175-177-197-199-205-211- 227-102240- MO Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...DVN...TOP...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-007-039-051-053-071-129-137-145-159-173-175-177-185- 102240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAYNE KSC013-043-131-102240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN DONIPHAN NEMAHA MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-087- 103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-147-171-175-177-197-199-205-211- 227-102240- MO Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LYH TO 10 W CHO TO 20 W HGR TO 30 NNW UNV. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-041-055-071-075-133-102240- Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LYH TO 10 W CHO TO 20 W HGR TO 30 NNW UNV. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-041-055-071-075-133-102240- Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LYH TO 10 W CHO TO 20 W HGR TO 30 NNW UNV. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-041-055-071-075-133-102240- Read more

WW 518 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 101740Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern Pennsylvania Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop and intensify across the region, with the most sustained storms potentially focused across southern Pennsylvania, interior Maryland, into northern/central Virginia. Damaging winds will be the most common severe concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Hagerstown MD to 40 miles east southeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE AOO TO 40 S ROC TO 35 W ART. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-041-043-045-049- 053-057-065-067-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109- 113-115-123-102240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON YATES PAC015-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099-107- 109-113-115-117-119-127-131-102240- PA Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE AOO TO 40 S ROC TO 35 W ART. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-041-043-045-049- 053-057-065-067-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109- 113-115-123-102240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON YATES PAC015-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099-107- 109-113-115-117-119-127-131-102240- PA Read more

MD 1571 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 517... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...North-central Pennsylvania into central New York Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 101839Z - 102045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...Several discrete supercells in parts of central New York will continue to pose a tornado risk over the next 1-3 hours. DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing along a north-south line just east of Rochester, NY. Low-level rotation has occasionally increases with some of these storms. Overall, storms have not been overly intense, however, as only storms near Lake Ontario have shown higher reflectivity to above 9 km (per MRMS). This may be due in part to somewhat modest mid-level ascent and weaker mid-level lapse rates. Mid-level ascent should at least gradually increase through the day. Further, these storms will encounter increasing unstable inflow air to the east where temperatures have risen into the low 90s F. Some outflow from convection farther east is noted on visible satellite that may eventually impact some of this activity. Farther south into central Pennsylvania, convection has shown some increase in supercell character over the last hour. These storms will also pose a risk for tornadoes, though low-level shear is marginally weaker with southern extent. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42207547 41787597 41357710 41087807 41287826 41617806 43017773 43357705 43437608 43207550 42777531 42207547 Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW LYH TO 5 S SHD TO 30 SW MRB TO 5 SE AOO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-102140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-102140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW AOO TO 30 NNW UNV TO 25 SSE BUF TO 40 NNW BUF. ..LYONS..07/10/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC001-003-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-041-043- 045-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-083-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-107-109-113-115-117-121-123-102140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON GENESEE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC013-015-027-035-037-043-061-067-069-079-081-087-093-097-099- Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ...New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. Read more