Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with multiple swaths of damaging winds likely within this corridor. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southeast... A larger than usual amount of uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution this afternoon though tonight. Ongoing cluster in southern IA will move southeastward across the mid MS Valley into a rapidly destabilizing airmass with enhanced northwesterly winds at mid/upper-levels supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for continued updraft organization. A swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with this cluster given the favorable parameter space. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk for damaging winds has been extended southeastward to account for the forecast evolution of this MCS. Another ongoing cluster over the lower OH Valley should also pose some threat for severe/damaging winds as it and associated outflow on its southwest flank spreads east-southeastward across KY and perhaps parts of TN the rest of this afternoon/evening. Additional robust thunderstorm development appears possible through the period in a broad corridor from central/eastern NE through the lower OH Valley and Southeast, with swaths of damaging winds likely the main threat. Details on where/when this activity will develop remain rather uncertain. But, isolated supercells may develop across central/eastern NE late this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of a surface low/lee trough. Very large hail may occur with this convection, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds possible if this activity can grow upscale into another cluster and spread southeastward across the mid MO and mid MS Valleys this evening/overnight. ...Northern Plains... Weak mid-level height falls amid moderate to strong instability should foster to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across parts of the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies should support deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms, including a few supercells, capable of both large hail and damaging gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A weak mid/upper-level trough and will move across the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon from VA into parts of PA. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization due to lingering cloudiness, a couple of stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ...Northeast... Weak to locally moderate instability may develop this afternoon from parts of northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple of modestly organized thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more