Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... FOR SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1750 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...southeast IA...northeast MO...and west-central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568... Valid 302036Z - 302200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated cells may produce sporadic large hail to around 1.5 inches in diameter over the next couple of hours. Local extensions of WW 568 are possible. DISCUSSION...A band of supercells has persisted across southeast IA in a modest warm advection regime atop a capped boundary-layer. Moderate instability exists downstream, along with favorable vertical shear. However, multiple rounds of convection have impacted parts of the area in the past 12 hours. This will likely preclude upscale development, though some hail and gusty wind risk may linger for a couple more hours. WW 568 is set to expire at 21z, though local watch extensions are possible. ..Leitman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41449288 41049150 40479066 39809060 39679112 39709193 39989228 40839277 41269311 41449288 Read more

MD 1748 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... FOR FAR SOUTHERN KY...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN...WESTERN NC/SC...AND NORTHERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1748 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...far southern KY...Middle and eastern TN...western NC/SC...and northern GA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570... Valid 302001Z - 302200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570. Some severe risk may extend southeast into parts of the western Carolinas and northern Georgia. This area is being monitored for possible downstream watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Ongoing linear cluster near the KY/TN border continues to produce sporadic wind damage this afternoon as convection develops southeast at around 40-45 kt. Additional more supercellular activity over eastern TN also have been sporadically severe. These areas of convection are occurring within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass within 30-40 kt northwesterly mid/upper flow regime. Deep-layer flow weakens with southward extent into SC and GA, but an overall favorable environment supporting at least sporadic strong to severe storms exists downstream from WW 570. Convective trends will continue to be monitored across Middle and eastern TN, and some potential for a downstream watch exists over parts of western NC/SC and northern GA. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36638341 36018253 35488220 34848216 34398264 34248363 34648464 35518593 36658659 36908650 37028573 37018510 37008433 36638341 Read more

MD 1749 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1749 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...North and South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302003Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the next 1-2 hours across the western Dakotas. Storms are expected to intensify as they migrate east into central North and South Dakota. Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon/evening as the severe threat becomes more prominent. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a gradual increase in cumulus along a surface trough and within the Black Hills in western SD. Mid to upper-level cirrus overspreading the region from the west is indicative of gradually increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough over ID/MT. Thunderstorm development appears likely in the coming hours as ascent continues to increase and continued daytime heating erodes any lingering MLCIN. Initial thunderstorms across the western Dakotas will develop within a relatively dry/well-mixed environment with LCL heights between 3.0 to 3.5 km. This environment will favor strong downdraft accelerations and rapid cold pool development/expansion with an attendant severe wind risk. Convection is expected to intensify as it moves east through the evening hours and encounters a reservoir of richer low-level moisture (well-sampled by a recent 19 UTC ABR sounding). Adequate deep-layer wind shear (around 30-35 knots) should support organized convection. Storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain given weak forcing for ascent. While the environment may support a supercell or two this evening, clustering of initial cells is possible and may promote upscale growth and a more robust wind threat. Trends will be monitored and watch issuance may be needed later this afternoon or evening to address this concern. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 44930049 44030188 43840218 43790254 43850287 44170313 44510327 44810330 46100323 46540311 46740298 47060283 47900222 48380147 48400078 48060016 47429973 46649967 46039979 45490003 44930049 Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-013-021-025-027-049-051-055-059-061-065-069-077-081- 083-087-117-119-121-127-133-135-145-151-153-157-163-165-173-181- 189-191-193-199-302240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GREENE HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE SHELBY UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-302240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BNA TO 30 W CSV TO 40 SSW LOZ TO 40 SSE LOZ. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC039-043-302240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-025-029-031-035-041-057-061-063- 065-089-093-105-107-115-117-121-123-129-139-141-143-145-149-151- 153-155-173-175-177-185-302240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON CLAIBORNE COCKE COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB GRAINGER GRUNDY HAMBLEN HAMILTON JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON MCMINN MARION MARSHALL MEIGS MONROE MORGAN POLK PUTNAM RHEA ROANE RUTHERFORD Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0573 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0573 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0572 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0572 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 1747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...Northern New York into Vermont and New Hampshire Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301906Z - 302100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop across portions of north-central New York. Additional storms are anticipated through the late afternoon and evening hours and may pose a damaging wind and hail threat. Watch issuance is not expected given a meager kinematic environment. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms developing across northern NY within the warm conveyor belt ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. This comes amid gradual destabilization with surface temperatures warming into the mid 80s with unseasonably high moisture content (dewpoints in the low 70s). These warm/moist conditions are promoting SBCAPE values increasing from around 1000 J/kg along the international border into the 2000-2500 J/kg range further south. Buoyancy should continue to increase through the early evening within the weak warm advection regime, supporting additional thunderstorm development. Latest GOES IR imagery and lighting data show periodic, but transient, lightning jumps associated with stronger updraft pulses. However, very modest mid and upper-level flow (20-25 knots) sampled by regional VWPs is limiting hodograph structure and overall deep-layer wind shear values. Consequently, convection will likely remain somewhat transient with periodic intense updraft pulses. However, somewhat steep (7.5-8 C/km) low-level lapse rates may support strong downdrafts with the potential for damaging outflow winds (most likely between 50-60 mph). Some hail threat may materialize with more intense cells given around 25 knots of effective bulk shear, but confidence in the development of a robust/organized severe threat is low. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43047358 43107470 43207558 43417601 43847616 44307602 44777528 45067443 45107235 45077166 44997118 44637099 44147087 43577087 43217107 42957145 42907164 42967201 43047358 Read more

MD 1746 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...eastern Missouri into southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301856Z - 302100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing this afternoon across eastern Missouri into southern Illinois. Area is being monitored for possible watch issuance downstream from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568. Damaging winds may accompany any storms that develop into this evening. DISCUSSION...While the earlier organized cluster of storms across Iowa has largely dissipated, some re-intensification on the southern flank has been noted across west-central IL over the past 30 minutes or so. Additional convection has developed near the intersection of outflow boundaries across northern MO. The downstream airmass across east-central MO into southern IL is characterized by temperatures near 90 F and dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong instability, with the gradient of stronger instability oriented northwest to southeast from northern MO into southern IL. This should support robust thunderstorm updrafts given greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes. Uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage and evolution given previous rounds of convection. However, the overall environment should support severe gust potential with any convection that develops. This area is being monitored for watch issuance within the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39909307 39919188 40049126 40319060 40279027 39808948 38788842 38228813 37698819 37448855 37378899 37418985 38139171 38869301 39319355 39589363 39909307 Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CKV TO 45 SW LOZ TO 30 NNE LOZ. ..LEITMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-051-109-121-125-147-235-302140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL CLAY JACKSON KNOX LAUREL MCCREARY WHITLEY TNC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-025-027-029-031-035-037-041-049- 057-061-063-065-087-089-093-105-107-111-115-117-121-123-129-133- 137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-159-165-169-173-175-177- 185-187-189-302140- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON CLAIBORNE CLAY COCKE COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB FENTRESS GRAINGER GRUNDY HAMBLEN HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-013-021-025-027-049-051-055-059-061-065-069-077-081- 083-087-117-119-121-127-133-135-145-151-153-157-163-165-173-181- 189-191-193-199-302140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN GREENE HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE SHELBY UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-302140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CDJ TO 30 SSE IRK TO 35 N IRK TO 25 SE OTM. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-067-149-302240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK PIKE IAC111-177-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE VAN BUREN MOC007-045-103-111-127-137-163-173-199-205-302240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN CLARK KNOX LEWIS MARION MONROE PIKE RALLS SCOTLAND Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CDJ TO 30 SSE IRK TO 35 N IRK TO 25 SE OTM. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-067-149-302240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK PIKE IAC111-177-302240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE VAN BUREN MOC007-045-103-111-127-137-163-173-199-205-302240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN CLARK KNOX LEWIS MARION MONROE PIKE RALLS SCOTLAND Read more