Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/New England, and the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An MCS will be ongoing across the Midwest at the start of the D2/Wednesday period, with residual outflow becoming a focus for afternoon thunderstorm re-development. A shortwave will eject across the northern Rockies with modest upper-level flow for organization for thunderstorms across the southern and central High Plains. ..Southern and Central High Plains Vicinity... Upper-level flow will overspread the northern Rockies on Tuesday, with easterly upslope surface flow supporting scattered thunderstorm development in Colorado/Wyoming. Modest deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. Further thunderstorm development is likely with the surface trough from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and along a front across central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Steep lapse rates and modest shear profiles will support some potential for strong to severe wind and hail. The Marginal Risk was extended southward into southeastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles with this outlook. ...Midwest... An MCS will be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across portions of IA, southern MN, and MO. This will pose some risk for severe wind through the early D2 period before weakening. With daytime heating, additional thunderstorm development is likely in the vicinity of this residual outflow boundary and in the vicinity of a front across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and shear near the front should support a few organized storms capable of strong to severe wind. ...Northeast... Stronger mid-level flow is expected across the northeastern US as a jet streak moves through a broad upper-level low in Canada across portions of the northeast. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and marginal CAPE profiles will support potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail and damaging wind. The Marginal Risk was extended north into ME with this outlook to account for this risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 29 17:35:02 UTC 2025.