Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND OREGON... ...20z Update... Confidence continues to increase in widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. As moisture associated with a prominent shortwave trough lifts northward, thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon across the higher terrain of northern CA/NV and southern OR. Forecast soundings depict weak buoyancy atop inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms over receptive fuels. With minimal rainfall accumulations, lightning ignitions are likely. A few storms may persist overnight as the shortwave trough continues northward into southern WA and the Cascades. Given the threat for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, critical dry thunderstorm highlights will be maintained and shifted west/south for recent model guidance. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are likely across parts of southern NV and western UT D2/Wednesday afternoon. Aided by enhanced westerly flow aloft, surface gusts of 15-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. With dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS while broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast tomorrow (Wednesday). Mid-level moisture will continue to pivot around the mid-level trough, toward the upper ridge, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. An embedded mid-level impulse, accompanied by stronger flow aloft, will traverse the northwest Great Basin and move northwestward into the Pacific Northwest through the late afternoon to overnight period. As this occurs, enhanced lift will promote at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Broad isolated dry-thunderstorm highlights are in place for areas that will experience lightning over dry fuels. Along and east of the Cascades, forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, potentially fast-moving thunderstorms. These storms may pass over fuels receptive to fire spread, but with minimal rainfall accumulations given fast storm speeds. Given the potentially higher density of fast moving storms east of the Cascades, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced for central and eastern Oregon into extreme northwest Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND OREGON... ...20z Update... Confidence continues to increase in widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. As moisture associated with a prominent shortwave trough lifts northward, thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon across the higher terrain of northern CA/NV and southern OR. Forecast soundings depict weak buoyancy atop inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms over receptive fuels. With minimal rainfall accumulations, lightning ignitions are likely. A few storms may persist overnight as the shortwave trough continues northward into southern WA and the Cascades. Given the threat for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, critical dry thunderstorm highlights will be maintained and shifted west/south for recent model guidance. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are likely across parts of southern NV and western UT D2/Wednesday afternoon. Aided by enhanced westerly flow aloft, surface gusts of 15-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. With dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS while broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast tomorrow (Wednesday). Mid-level moisture will continue to pivot around the mid-level trough, toward the upper ridge, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. An embedded mid-level impulse, accompanied by stronger flow aloft, will traverse the northwest Great Basin and move northwestward into the Pacific Northwest through the late afternoon to overnight period. As this occurs, enhanced lift will promote at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Broad isolated dry-thunderstorm highlights are in place for areas that will experience lightning over dry fuels. Along and east of the Cascades, forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, potentially fast-moving thunderstorms. These storms may pass over fuels receptive to fire spread, but with minimal rainfall accumulations given fast storm speeds. Given the potentially higher density of fast moving storms east of the Cascades, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced for central and eastern Oregon into extreme northwest Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND OREGON... ...20z Update... Confidence continues to increase in widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. As moisture associated with a prominent shortwave trough lifts northward, thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon across the higher terrain of northern CA/NV and southern OR. Forecast soundings depict weak buoyancy atop inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms over receptive fuels. With minimal rainfall accumulations, lightning ignitions are likely. A few storms may persist overnight as the shortwave trough continues northward into southern WA and the Cascades. Given the threat for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, critical dry thunderstorm highlights will be maintained and shifted west/south for recent model guidance. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are likely across parts of southern NV and western UT D2/Wednesday afternoon. Aided by enhanced westerly flow aloft, surface gusts of 15-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. With dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS while broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast tomorrow (Wednesday). Mid-level moisture will continue to pivot around the mid-level trough, toward the upper ridge, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. An embedded mid-level impulse, accompanied by stronger flow aloft, will traverse the northwest Great Basin and move northwestward into the Pacific Northwest through the late afternoon to overnight period. As this occurs, enhanced lift will promote at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Broad isolated dry-thunderstorm highlights are in place for areas that will experience lightning over dry fuels. Along and east of the Cascades, forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, potentially fast-moving thunderstorms. These storms may pass over fuels receptive to fire spread, but with minimal rainfall accumulations given fast storm speeds. Given the potentially higher density of fast moving storms east of the Cascades, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced for central and eastern Oregon into extreme northwest Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND OREGON... ...20z Update... Confidence continues to increase in widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. As moisture associated with a prominent shortwave trough lifts northward, thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon across the higher terrain of northern CA/NV and southern OR. Forecast soundings depict weak buoyancy atop inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms over receptive fuels. With minimal rainfall accumulations, lightning ignitions are likely. A few storms may persist overnight as the shortwave trough continues northward into southern WA and the Cascades. Given the threat for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, critical dry thunderstorm highlights will be maintained and shifted west/south for recent model guidance. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are likely across parts of southern NV and western UT D2/Wednesday afternoon. Aided by enhanced westerly flow aloft, surface gusts of 15-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. With dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS while broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast tomorrow (Wednesday). Mid-level moisture will continue to pivot around the mid-level trough, toward the upper ridge, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. An embedded mid-level impulse, accompanied by stronger flow aloft, will traverse the northwest Great Basin and move northwestward into the Pacific Northwest through the late afternoon to overnight period. As this occurs, enhanced lift will promote at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Broad isolated dry-thunderstorm highlights are in place for areas that will experience lightning over dry fuels. Along and east of the Cascades, forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, potentially fast-moving thunderstorms. These storms may pass over fuels receptive to fire spread, but with minimal rainfall accumulations given fast storm speeds. Given the potentially higher density of fast moving storms east of the Cascades, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced for central and eastern Oregon into extreme northwest Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND OREGON... ...20z Update... Confidence continues to increase in widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. As moisture associated with a prominent shortwave trough lifts northward, thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon across the higher terrain of northern CA/NV and southern OR. Forecast soundings depict weak buoyancy atop inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms over receptive fuels. With minimal rainfall accumulations, lightning ignitions are likely. A few storms may persist overnight as the shortwave trough continues northward into southern WA and the Cascades. Given the threat for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, critical dry thunderstorm highlights will be maintained and shifted west/south for recent model guidance. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are likely across parts of southern NV and western UT D2/Wednesday afternoon. Aided by enhanced westerly flow aloft, surface gusts of 15-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. With dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS while broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast tomorrow (Wednesday). Mid-level moisture will continue to pivot around the mid-level trough, toward the upper ridge, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. An embedded mid-level impulse, accompanied by stronger flow aloft, will traverse the northwest Great Basin and move northwestward into the Pacific Northwest through the late afternoon to overnight period. As this occurs, enhanced lift will promote at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Broad isolated dry-thunderstorm highlights are in place for areas that will experience lightning over dry fuels. Along and east of the Cascades, forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, potentially fast-moving thunderstorms. These storms may pass over fuels receptive to fire spread, but with minimal rainfall accumulations given fast storm speeds. Given the potentially higher density of fast moving storms east of the Cascades, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced for central and eastern Oregon into extreme northwest Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND OREGON... ...20z Update... Confidence continues to increase in widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. As moisture associated with a prominent shortwave trough lifts northward, thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon across the higher terrain of northern CA/NV and southern OR. Forecast soundings depict weak buoyancy atop inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms over receptive fuels. With minimal rainfall accumulations, lightning ignitions are likely. A few storms may persist overnight as the shortwave trough continues northward into southern WA and the Cascades. Given the threat for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, critical dry thunderstorm highlights will be maintained and shifted west/south for recent model guidance. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are likely across parts of southern NV and western UT D2/Wednesday afternoon. Aided by enhanced westerly flow aloft, surface gusts of 15-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. With dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS while broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast tomorrow (Wednesday). Mid-level moisture will continue to pivot around the mid-level trough, toward the upper ridge, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. An embedded mid-level impulse, accompanied by stronger flow aloft, will traverse the northwest Great Basin and move northwestward into the Pacific Northwest through the late afternoon to overnight period. As this occurs, enhanced lift will promote at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Broad isolated dry-thunderstorm highlights are in place for areas that will experience lightning over dry fuels. Along and east of the Cascades, forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, potentially fast-moving thunderstorms. These storms may pass over fuels receptive to fire spread, but with minimal rainfall accumulations given fast storm speeds. Given the potentially higher density of fast moving storms east of the Cascades, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced for central and eastern Oregon into extreme northwest Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND OREGON... ...20z Update... Confidence continues to increase in widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. As moisture associated with a prominent shortwave trough lifts northward, thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon across the higher terrain of northern CA/NV and southern OR. Forecast soundings depict weak buoyancy atop inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms over receptive fuels. With minimal rainfall accumulations, lightning ignitions are likely. A few storms may persist overnight as the shortwave trough continues northward into southern WA and the Cascades. Given the threat for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, critical dry thunderstorm highlights will be maintained and shifted west/south for recent model guidance. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are likely across parts of southern NV and western UT D2/Wednesday afternoon. Aided by enhanced westerly flow aloft, surface gusts of 15-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. With dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS while broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast tomorrow (Wednesday). Mid-level moisture will continue to pivot around the mid-level trough, toward the upper ridge, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. An embedded mid-level impulse, accompanied by stronger flow aloft, will traverse the northwest Great Basin and move northwestward into the Pacific Northwest through the late afternoon to overnight period. As this occurs, enhanced lift will promote at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Broad isolated dry-thunderstorm highlights are in place for areas that will experience lightning over dry fuels. Along and east of the Cascades, forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, potentially fast-moving thunderstorms. These storms may pass over fuels receptive to fire spread, but with minimal rainfall accumulations given fast storm speeds. Given the potentially higher density of fast moving storms east of the Cascades, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced for central and eastern Oregon into extreme northwest Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND OREGON... ...20z Update... Confidence continues to increase in widespread thunderstorms across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. As moisture associated with a prominent shortwave trough lifts northward, thunderstorm development is likely by early afternoon across the higher terrain of northern CA/NV and southern OR. Forecast soundings depict weak buoyancy atop inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms over receptive fuels. With minimal rainfall accumulations, lightning ignitions are likely. A few storms may persist overnight as the shortwave trough continues northward into southern WA and the Cascades. Given the threat for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, critical dry thunderstorm highlights will be maintained and shifted west/south for recent model guidance. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are likely across parts of southern NV and western UT D2/Wednesday afternoon. Aided by enhanced westerly flow aloft, surface gusts of 15-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. With dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS while broad mid-level troughing remains in place along the West Coast tomorrow (Wednesday). Mid-level moisture will continue to pivot around the mid-level trough, toward the upper ridge, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. An embedded mid-level impulse, accompanied by stronger flow aloft, will traverse the northwest Great Basin and move northwestward into the Pacific Northwest through the late afternoon to overnight period. As this occurs, enhanced lift will promote at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Broad isolated dry-thunderstorm highlights are in place for areas that will experience lightning over dry fuels. Along and east of the Cascades, forecast soundings depict inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, which would support high-based, potentially fast-moving thunderstorms. These storms may pass over fuels receptive to fire spread, but with minimal rainfall accumulations given fast storm speeds. Given the potentially higher density of fast moving storms east of the Cascades, scattered dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced for central and eastern Oregon into extreme northwest Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk appears too isolated to include probabilities. Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any more widespread organized severe risk. ..Thornton.. 07/29/2025 Read more