Severe Storms

WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0557 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 557 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 292155Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northeast Nebraska Far Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across south-central SD are organizing into a convective line that will likely continue southeastward into the very unstable airmass downstream across far southeast SD and far northeast NE. Strong gusts are possible with this line as it moves into this region this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Chamberlain SD to 15 miles east of Yankton SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 556... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1834 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1834 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwest into central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291959Z - 292200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strongest thunderstorm development may become focused across parts of southwestern into central Nebraska through 4-7 PM CDT. This may include a few evolving supercell structures posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...Within lee surface troughing across much of western Kansas and adjacent portions of the high plains, a strongly heating (including surface temperatures approaching 100 F) and increasingly deeply mixed boundary layer is becoming characterized by moderate CAPE based on latest objective analysis. Mid-level inhibition is gradually eroding and deepening convective development is evident, including the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity. As a weak mid-level perturbation shifts east of the Front Range, models suggest that thunderstorm development may increase either side of a remnant frontal zone within the lee surface trough, which is forecast to slowly shift southeast of the high plains through early evening. Near the nose of the stronger pre-frontal heating, now developing north and east of the McCook NE vicinity toward areas between North Platte and Kearney, surface dew points in the lower 70s F are contributing to moderate to large CAPE along an initially stalled segment of the frontal zone, where low-level convergence may eventually focus strongest thunderstorm development. Although wind fields in lower through mid-levels are rather weak, easterly near-surface flow veering to northerly near the eastward migrating frontal wave (beneath southerly mid-level flow) may contribute to sufficient shear for intensifying supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Otherwise, storms, particularly those forming in the strongly heated pre-frontal environment, may pose a risk for locally strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41370111 41600024 41509902 40809880 40069930 40170045 40220138 40670161 41370111 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z High pressure over the central US is forecast to gradually weaken through the end of the week as broad troughing over the Pacific moves onshore over the West. An embedded shortwave over the Northwest will lift north and intensify bringing scattered thunderstorms and dry lightning potential to the region through the end of the work week. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin as flow aloft intensifies this weekend and next week. ...Northwest... As the shortwave trough continues to lift north within the broader southerly flow regime, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected late D2/Wed into early D3/Thu. Some of these storms may occur along and west of the Cascade Crest through D3/Thu afternoon. Additional storms are likely later into D4/Fri, but PWAT values will continue to rise as onshore flow increases. This will trend storms towards a wetter mode and higher precipitation efficiency. With this increase in rainfall, dry thunder potential appears decreased. Furthermore, model guidance shows some potential for lingering cloud cover which may modulate convective coverage. With uncertainty in storm coverage and dry thunder potential beyond D3/Thu, no additional 10% areas will be added, though some lightning risk could persist. By this weekend, the main trough over the Northwest will begin to shift eastward allowing stronger westerly winds and a drier air mass to move onshore. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. However, model guidance varies on the strength of this system into early next week. Though uncertainty remains, some increase in fire-weather potential is expected. ...Southern and eastern Great Basin... As troughing intensifies and moves onshore over the Northwest, flow aloft will begin to increase over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies next weekend and early next week. This area has largely avoided meaningful precipitation over the last several days and fuels have continued to dry. As winds increase, stronger surface gusts are expected to develop D5/Sat and beyond. Guidance varies on the strength of the flow aloft, but ensemble data shows some potential for 15+ mph surface winds on a widespread basis colocated with expected low RH late this weekend. Additional active fire-weather conditions are possible early next week. ..Lyons.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1833 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Wyoming into southern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291933Z - 292130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon across portions of northern Wyoming into southern Montana in anticipation of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway across portions of Yellowstone National Park into southern/central Montana, with storms anticipated to move off the higher terrain and into the better buoyancy this afternoon. MLCAPE at or exceeding 1000 J/kg, combined with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear is expected to support organized thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Current SPC surface objective mesoanalysis shows Significant Hail Parameter values of 1.5-2.0 across portions of southeastern Montana. RAP/HRRR forecast profiles over the next few hours in the vicinity of northern Wyoming into Montana corroborate this with steep low-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. Depending on the location, low-level wind profiles vary from straight-line (favoring supercell splits), to cyclonically curved (favoring right supercell motions). Either scenario will support a large hail threat, including significant (2.00+ inch) hail with the most robust, isolated thunderstorms. The steep low-level lapse rates, coupled with higher LCL heights/dryer boundary layer profiles in the deeply-mixed air will also support a severe wind threat that will be maximized with any bowing outflow segments. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed within the next few hours. ..Halbert/Smith.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 43750940 44260979 44631016 44901050 45171078 45311105 45481123 45831152 46051166 46381159 46811105 47061041 47120980 47120919 47050874 46830819 46730797 46340753 45600725 45060734 44510751 44330773 44060810 43800862 43660908 43680925 43750940 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0556 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more