Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough will develop east across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the 70s). A surface cold front will be oriented from northern MN southwest into western SD during the morning, and develop southeast through the period. Convection will develop along the boundary during the day and move across a strongly unstable airmass. Clusters may develop into a fast-moving MCS impacting portions of eastern SD into central/southern MN and parts of WI. Damaging wind swaths and isolated large hail will be possible. The south and east extent of the severe risk is uncertain, and adjustments may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved. Additional more isolated strong to severe storm may develop in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across NE and parts of the northern High Plains. Strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Moderate northwesterly deep-layer flow will persist over the region as an upper trough shifts east over the Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will result in pockets of weak instability, supporting isolated to scattered corridors of thunderstorm activity. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear amid weak instability will support isolated strong gusts and perhaps small hail. ...Central/Southern High Plains vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed from this area with this update cycle. Forecast guidance varies considerable regarding the degree of destabilization across the region, with ECMWF members showing very little instability, while the more aggressive NAM solutions indicated MUCAPE to near 500 J/kg. Given potential for a large area with little risk, opted to remove this area until confidence increases in which particular areas may see greater thunderstorm coverage. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough will develop east across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the 70s). A surface cold front will be oriented from northern MN southwest into western SD during the morning, and develop southeast through the period. Convection will develop along the boundary during the day and move across a strongly unstable airmass. Clusters may develop into a fast-moving MCS impacting portions of eastern SD into central/southern MN and parts of WI. Damaging wind swaths and isolated large hail will be possible. The south and east extent of the severe risk is uncertain, and adjustments may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved. Additional more isolated strong to severe storm may develop in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across NE and parts of the northern High Plains. Strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Moderate northwesterly deep-layer flow will persist over the region as an upper trough shifts east over the Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will result in pockets of weak instability, supporting isolated to scattered corridors of thunderstorm activity. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear amid weak instability will support isolated strong gusts and perhaps small hail. ...Central/Southern High Plains vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed from this area with this update cycle. Forecast guidance varies considerable regarding the degree of destabilization across the region, with ECMWF members showing very little instability, while the more aggressive NAM solutions indicated MUCAPE to near 500 J/kg. Given potential for a large area with little risk, opted to remove this area until confidence increases in which particular areas may see greater thunderstorm coverage. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough will develop east across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the 70s). A surface cold front will be oriented from northern MN southwest into western SD during the morning, and develop southeast through the period. Convection will develop along the boundary during the day and move across a strongly unstable airmass. Clusters may develop into a fast-moving MCS impacting portions of eastern SD into central/southern MN and parts of WI. Damaging wind swaths and isolated large hail will be possible. The south and east extent of the severe risk is uncertain, and adjustments may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved. Additional more isolated strong to severe storm may develop in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across NE and parts of the northern High Plains. Strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Moderate northwesterly deep-layer flow will persist over the region as an upper trough shifts east over the Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will result in pockets of weak instability, supporting isolated to scattered corridors of thunderstorm activity. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear amid weak instability will support isolated strong gusts and perhaps small hail. ...Central/Southern High Plains vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed from this area with this update cycle. Forecast guidance varies considerable regarding the degree of destabilization across the region, with ECMWF members showing very little instability, while the more aggressive NAM solutions indicated MUCAPE to near 500 J/kg. Given potential for a large area with little risk, opted to remove this area until confidence increases in which particular areas may see greater thunderstorm coverage. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough will develop east across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the 70s). A surface cold front will be oriented from northern MN southwest into western SD during the morning, and develop southeast through the period. Convection will develop along the boundary during the day and move across a strongly unstable airmass. Clusters may develop into a fast-moving MCS impacting portions of eastern SD into central/southern MN and parts of WI. Damaging wind swaths and isolated large hail will be possible. The south and east extent of the severe risk is uncertain, and adjustments may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved. Additional more isolated strong to severe storm may develop in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across NE and parts of the northern High Plains. Strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Moderate northwesterly deep-layer flow will persist over the region as an upper trough shifts east over the Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will result in pockets of weak instability, supporting isolated to scattered corridors of thunderstorm activity. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear amid weak instability will support isolated strong gusts and perhaps small hail. ...Central/Southern High Plains vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed from this area with this update cycle. Forecast guidance varies considerable regarding the degree of destabilization across the region, with ECMWF members showing very little instability, while the more aggressive NAM solutions indicated MUCAPE to near 500 J/kg. Given potential for a large area with little risk, opted to remove this area until confidence increases in which particular areas may see greater thunderstorm coverage. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough will develop east across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the 70s). A surface cold front will be oriented from northern MN southwest into western SD during the morning, and develop southeast through the period. Convection will develop along the boundary during the day and move across a strongly unstable airmass. Clusters may develop into a fast-moving MCS impacting portions of eastern SD into central/southern MN and parts of WI. Damaging wind swaths and isolated large hail will be possible. The south and east extent of the severe risk is uncertain, and adjustments may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved. Additional more isolated strong to severe storm may develop in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across NE and parts of the northern High Plains. Strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Moderate northwesterly deep-layer flow will persist over the region as an upper trough shifts east over the Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will result in pockets of weak instability, supporting isolated to scattered corridors of thunderstorm activity. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear amid weak instability will support isolated strong gusts and perhaps small hail. ...Central/Southern High Plains vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed from this area with this update cycle. Forecast guidance varies considerable regarding the degree of destabilization across the region, with ECMWF members showing very little instability, while the more aggressive NAM solutions indicated MUCAPE to near 500 J/kg. Given potential for a large area with little risk, opted to remove this area until confidence increases in which particular areas may see greater thunderstorm coverage. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough will develop east across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the 70s). A surface cold front will be oriented from northern MN southwest into western SD during the morning, and develop southeast through the period. Convection will develop along the boundary during the day and move across a strongly unstable airmass. Clusters may develop into a fast-moving MCS impacting portions of eastern SD into central/southern MN and parts of WI. Damaging wind swaths and isolated large hail will be possible. The south and east extent of the severe risk is uncertain, and adjustments may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved. Additional more isolated strong to severe storm may develop in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across NE and parts of the northern High Plains. Strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Moderate northwesterly deep-layer flow will persist over the region as an upper trough shifts east over the Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will result in pockets of weak instability, supporting isolated to scattered corridors of thunderstorm activity. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear amid weak instability will support isolated strong gusts and perhaps small hail. ...Central/Southern High Plains vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed from this area with this update cycle. Forecast guidance varies considerable regarding the degree of destabilization across the region, with ECMWF members showing very little instability, while the more aggressive NAM solutions indicated MUCAPE to near 500 J/kg. Given potential for a large area with little risk, opted to remove this area until confidence increases in which particular areas may see greater thunderstorm coverage. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more