Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of northeast Montana, and for a few hours this evening from the central High Plains into the Four Corners region. ...Northeast MT vicinity... An isolated supercell or two remains possible through mid evening across extreme northeast MT into far northwest ND, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted in the 00Z GGW sounding). Later tonight, some guidance (most notably recent HRRR runs) suggests potential for an elevated storm cluster to develop and move across northeast MT and potentially extreme northwest ND. High-based convection currently developing across east-central MT lends some credence to this scenario, though uncertainty remains. Should this occur, MUCAPE and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms with hail and severe-gust potential, before the cluster moves into SK. A Slight Risk has been added for the conditional potential for hail and strong to severe gusts later tonight. ...Four Corners into the central High Plains... Multiple clusters of generally disorganized convection are ongoing early this evening from northern NM into parts of CO. Localized strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region for a few hours this evening, before convection generally weakens. Some intensification cannot be ruled out where stronger instability is in place from northeast CO into western NE, though MLCINH should become increasingly prohibitive with time. ...Southern KS into western OK...northwest TX...OK/TX Panhandles... Isolated high-based storms may continue to pose a short-term threat of localized downbursts from northwest TX/western OK into the TX/OK Panhandles and southern KS. However, storms should continue to be disorganized, and tend to diminish quickly with time this evening. ..Dean.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of northeast Montana, and for a few hours this evening from the central High Plains into the Four Corners region. ...Northeast MT vicinity... An isolated supercell or two remains possible through mid evening across extreme northeast MT into far northwest ND, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted in the 00Z GGW sounding). Later tonight, some guidance (most notably recent HRRR runs) suggests potential for an elevated storm cluster to develop and move across northeast MT and potentially extreme northwest ND. High-based convection currently developing across east-central MT lends some credence to this scenario, though uncertainty remains. Should this occur, MUCAPE and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms with hail and severe-gust potential, before the cluster moves into SK. A Slight Risk has been added for the conditional potential for hail and strong to severe gusts later tonight. ...Four Corners into the central High Plains... Multiple clusters of generally disorganized convection are ongoing early this evening from northern NM into parts of CO. Localized strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region for a few hours this evening, before convection generally weakens. Some intensification cannot be ruled out where stronger instability is in place from northeast CO into western NE, though MLCINH should become increasingly prohibitive with time. ...Southern KS into western OK...northwest TX...OK/TX Panhandles... Isolated high-based storms may continue to pose a short-term threat of localized downbursts from northwest TX/western OK into the TX/OK Panhandles and southern KS. However, storms should continue to be disorganized, and tend to diminish quickly with time this evening. ..Dean.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of northeast Montana, and for a few hours this evening from the central High Plains into the Four Corners region. ...Northeast MT vicinity... An isolated supercell or two remains possible through mid evening across extreme northeast MT into far northwest ND, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted in the 00Z GGW sounding). Later tonight, some guidance (most notably recent HRRR runs) suggests potential for an elevated storm cluster to develop and move across northeast MT and potentially extreme northwest ND. High-based convection currently developing across east-central MT lends some credence to this scenario, though uncertainty remains. Should this occur, MUCAPE and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms with hail and severe-gust potential, before the cluster moves into SK. A Slight Risk has been added for the conditional potential for hail and strong to severe gusts later tonight. ...Four Corners into the central High Plains... Multiple clusters of generally disorganized convection are ongoing early this evening from northern NM into parts of CO. Localized strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region for a few hours this evening, before convection generally weakens. Some intensification cannot be ruled out where stronger instability is in place from northeast CO into western NE, though MLCINH should become increasingly prohibitive with time. ...Southern KS into western OK...northwest TX...OK/TX Panhandles... Isolated high-based storms may continue to pose a short-term threat of localized downbursts from northwest TX/western OK into the TX/OK Panhandles and southern KS. However, storms should continue to be disorganized, and tend to diminish quickly with time this evening. ..Dean.. 08/25/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 24 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 24 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242100Z - 242330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may begin to initiate, with the evolution of an isolated supercell possible, by 4-5 PM MDT. This may pose a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some potential for a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence appears to be locally strengthening within weak surface troughing near the Wolf Point vicinity, where surface dew points remain in the lower/mid 60s F, as temperatures warm into the 90s F. Inhibition is gradually eroding with continuing insolation, and this may be aided by weak mid-level cooling through late afternoon, downstream of a mid-level perturbation progressing across and northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Initial attempts at deepening convective development appear slowly underway, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles already characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Beneath 35-60+ kt south-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear is already strong and conditionally supportive of supercells. Although the strength of mid/upper forcing for ascent remains a bit unclear, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh and Rapid Refresh, in particular, suggest that at least isolated thunderstorms may initiate as early as 22-23Z. Once this occurs, intensification may be fairly rapid, with storms becoming capable of producing large hail, locally damaging gusts gusts, and perhaps some risk for a brief tornado, despite generally small/linear low-level hodographs. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW... LAT...LON 49550459 48250422 47870592 48790686 49660673 49550459 Read more

MD 1984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Areas affected...Northwest New Mexico into south-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242049Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe winds and small to marginally severe hail are possible in the strongest storms. A watch is not likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A plume of mid-level moisture is lifting northward into the Four Corners vicinity on water vapor imagery. Widely-scattered to scattered storms have developed in the higher terrain this afternoon. Most storms have remained rather shallow, but a cluster of stronger storms has formed in northwest New Mexico where greater heating has occurred. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds between the Northwestern upper trough and the central U.S. upper ridge, effective shear of 35-40 kts will allow a few stronger multicells to develop. These storms could produce strong severe wind gusts as well as small to marginally severe hail. Overall forcing for ascent will remain weak as will buoyancy. The severe threat should remain isolated and marginal. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...FGZ... LAT...LON 34330840 35370993 37220833 38350699 38780582 38240447 35760545 34500661 34330840 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The Elevated area in Wyoming was removed with this update, as the latest guidance consensus suggests increasing cloud coverage and precipitation/thunderstorms overspreading the area through the afternoon. While strong to severe outflow winds may accompany storms and pose some risk of fire-spread, the overlap of dry/windy conditions appears limited. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were trimmed over northeast Nevada -- where RH/moisture should be too high for an appreciable risk of dry thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough positioned over the West will lift northeast into the Northern Rockies while undergoing gradual weakening. Still, enough residual enhanced mid-level flow will overspread adjacent regions of the Northern Rockies, to result in afternoon sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low 20s F. These dry/breezy conditions will promote Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of Wyoming where fuels remain at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. In addition, an area delineating the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of the northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Isolated storms should develop during the afternoon in association with forcing/ascent with the mid-level trough. This highlight has been confined to areas where fuels appear receptive to large-fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The Elevated area in Wyoming was removed with this update, as the latest guidance consensus suggests increasing cloud coverage and precipitation/thunderstorms overspreading the area through the afternoon. While strong to severe outflow winds may accompany storms and pose some risk of fire-spread, the overlap of dry/windy conditions appears limited. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were trimmed over northeast Nevada -- where RH/moisture should be too high for an appreciable risk of dry thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough positioned over the West will lift northeast into the Northern Rockies while undergoing gradual weakening. Still, enough residual enhanced mid-level flow will overspread adjacent regions of the Northern Rockies, to result in afternoon sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low 20s F. These dry/breezy conditions will promote Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of Wyoming where fuels remain at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. In addition, an area delineating the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of the northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Isolated storms should develop during the afternoon in association with forcing/ascent with the mid-level trough. This highlight has been confined to areas where fuels appear receptive to large-fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The Elevated area in Wyoming was removed with this update, as the latest guidance consensus suggests increasing cloud coverage and precipitation/thunderstorms overspreading the area through the afternoon. While strong to severe outflow winds may accompany storms and pose some risk of fire-spread, the overlap of dry/windy conditions appears limited. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were trimmed over northeast Nevada -- where RH/moisture should be too high for an appreciable risk of dry thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough positioned over the West will lift northeast into the Northern Rockies while undergoing gradual weakening. Still, enough residual enhanced mid-level flow will overspread adjacent regions of the Northern Rockies, to result in afternoon sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low 20s F. These dry/breezy conditions will promote Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of Wyoming where fuels remain at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. In addition, an area delineating the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of the northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Isolated storms should develop during the afternoon in association with forcing/ascent with the mid-level trough. This highlight has been confined to areas where fuels appear receptive to large-fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The Elevated area in Wyoming was removed with this update, as the latest guidance consensus suggests increasing cloud coverage and precipitation/thunderstorms overspreading the area through the afternoon. While strong to severe outflow winds may accompany storms and pose some risk of fire-spread, the overlap of dry/windy conditions appears limited. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were trimmed over northeast Nevada -- where RH/moisture should be too high for an appreciable risk of dry thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough positioned over the West will lift northeast into the Northern Rockies while undergoing gradual weakening. Still, enough residual enhanced mid-level flow will overspread adjacent regions of the Northern Rockies, to result in afternoon sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low 20s F. These dry/breezy conditions will promote Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of Wyoming where fuels remain at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. In addition, an area delineating the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of the northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Isolated storms should develop during the afternoon in association with forcing/ascent with the mid-level trough. This highlight has been confined to areas where fuels appear receptive to large-fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The Elevated area in Wyoming was removed with this update, as the latest guidance consensus suggests increasing cloud coverage and precipitation/thunderstorms overspreading the area through the afternoon. While strong to severe outflow winds may accompany storms and pose some risk of fire-spread, the overlap of dry/windy conditions appears limited. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were trimmed over northeast Nevada -- where RH/moisture should be too high for an appreciable risk of dry thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough positioned over the West will lift northeast into the Northern Rockies while undergoing gradual weakening. Still, enough residual enhanced mid-level flow will overspread adjacent regions of the Northern Rockies, to result in afternoon sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low 20s F. These dry/breezy conditions will promote Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of Wyoming where fuels remain at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. In addition, an area delineating the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of the northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Isolated storms should develop during the afternoon in association with forcing/ascent with the mid-level trough. This highlight has been confined to areas where fuels appear receptive to large-fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more