SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Day 2/Monday. As this occurs, enhanced deep-layer flow is forecast to overspread portions of Wyoming near the base of the aforementioned trough, which will promote dry and breezy conditions. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are probable -- mainly during the afternoon with boundary-layer mixing -- fire weather conditions appear too spotty/brief to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Day 2/Monday. As this occurs, enhanced deep-layer flow is forecast to overspread portions of Wyoming near the base of the aforementioned trough, which will promote dry and breezy conditions. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are probable -- mainly during the afternoon with boundary-layer mixing -- fire weather conditions appear too spotty/brief to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC MD 1986

1 year ago
MD 1986 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Montana and extreme northwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250430Z - 250630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail threat are expected with convection into the early morning hours across northeast Montana. DISCUSSION...Right-entrance region of a mid-level jet over southern SK may be partly responsible for recent uptick in elevated convection that is spreading into northeast MT. Latest surface data suggests a weak low is tracking across southeast MT toward western ND. Primary pacific frontal surge is associated with a gradually expanding cluster of thunderstorms from southern Phillips to northern Rosebud County. Severe wind gust has recently been reported at JDN along the leading edge of this activity. Latest HREF guidance has a reasonable handle on this scenario and subsequent movement should spread across the remainder of northeast MT early this morning. Unless multiple supercells develop within this expanding cluster, hail production should be limited and generally less than one inch. Even so, an isolated severe report or two can not be ruled out, and most likely will be a gust approaching 50kt. Given the marginality of this convection, current thinking is a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently needed. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... LAT...LON 48100763 49440522 48780356 47030593 48100763 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more
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