Severe Storms

MD 1838 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Eastern Wyoming...Far Western South Dakota...Far Western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292322Z - 300145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop from far southeast Montana into eastern Wyoming over the next few hours. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass over the central and northern High Plains, with upslope flow in place from western Nebraska and western South Dakota into eastern Wyoming. Surface heating is maximized near a surface trough located in east-central Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms, with some severe, are ongoing near the trough. Short-term model forecasts including the HRRR, continue to increase convective coverage, suggesting that a line will develop in far southeast Montana and eastern Wyoming over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings in eastern Wyoming early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for large hail and severe gusts with supercells. Intense multicell line segments may also produce severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45630416 45790467 45770546 45530600 44800605 43540603 42090606 41420602 41110544 41070463 41170402 41530352 42190339 43330350 45220397 45630416 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0559 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0559 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0559 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0559 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from southeast Montana ad eastern Wyoming across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. ...Northern High Plains... Widely scattered cells producing severe hail persist this evening in the post frontal/upslope regime from southeast MT into eastern WY. A narrow instability plume ahead of these storms may support a continued hail risk approaching the Black Hills later this evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1838. ...NE into western IA... Clusters of storms continue to evolve within a weak shear environment from northwest KS across central NE and into southeast SD where more substantial outflow is present. The primary deep-layer theta-e axis remains across the NE into IA zone, and this strongly unstable and moist air mass will continue to support swaths of damaging winds and marginal hail. The weak wind fields below 500 mb will continue to be a limiting factor to overall severity. ..Jewell.. 07/30/2025 Read more