Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ...Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ...Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ...Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DNS TO 5 SE SLB TO 25 NW FOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-047-073-077-085-151-161-165-187-300640- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL CRAWFORD GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON POCAHONTAS SAC SHELBY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LAR TO 10 WNW TOR TO 15 SE CDR. WW 558 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300600Z. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-157-165-300600- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-300600- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LAR TO 10 WNW TOR TO 15 SE CDR. WW 558 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300600Z. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-157-165-300600- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-300600- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LAR TO 10 WNW TOR TO 15 SE CDR. WW 558 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300600Z. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-157-165-300600- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-300600- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LAR TO 10 WNW TOR TO 15 SE CDR. WW 558 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300600Z. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-157-165-300600- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-300600- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LAR TO 10 WNW TOR TO 15 SE CDR. WW 558 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300600Z. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-157-165-300600- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-300600- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LAR TO 10 WNW TOR TO 15 SE CDR. WW 558 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300600Z. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-157-165-300600- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-300600- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 558 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 300005Z - 300600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Nebraska Panhandle Southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday night from 605 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently ongoing across central WY are expected to persist eastward this evening while also trending towards a more linear structure. The environmental across eastern WY and adjacent southwest SD/NE Panhandle supports a continued risk for damaging gusts through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of Gillette WY to 10 miles southwest of Torrington WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 556...WW 557... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556...558... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Northeast Wyoming...Western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556...558... Valid 300243Z - 300445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556, 558 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for a few more hours from northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-res radar imagery from Rapid City, South Dakota shows a small cluster of severe storms in far southeastern Montana. These storms are located within an upslope regime near an axis of low-level moisture where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Over the next couple of hours, short-term model forecasts move the storms southeastward across far northeast Wyoming and into western South Dakota, with convective coverage gradually increasing. RAP forecast soundings to the north of Rapid City have 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment should continue to support a threat for supercells with severe gusts and isolated large hail. Intense multicell line segments could also produce strong to severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 45110291 45000226 44680204 44170196 43760221 43680280 43680405 43780451 44080495 44530509 44800484 45000430 45110291 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE RWL TO 50 NNW TOR TO 30 SE 4BQ. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-045-157-165-300540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE DAWES SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-300540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC001-011-015-021-031-045-300540- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CROOK GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE WESTON Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RWL TO 40 NE DGW TO 30 ENE GCC TO 35 WNW GCC. ..BROYLES..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-045-157-165-300440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE DAWES SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-300440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC001-011-015-021-027-031-045-300440- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CROOK GOSHEN LARAMIE NIOBRARA PLATTE Read more

MD 1841 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...559... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1841 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557...559... Valid 300226Z - 300400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557, 559 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts will continue with the ongoing MCS for at least a few more hours. DISCUSSION...The earlier MCS that progressed across southern SD has merged with the NE line to form an elongated MCS structure. Nonetheless, the merged remnants of the older MCS continues to propagate southeast along a baroclinic boundary with continued reports of severe gusts. Though vertical wind shear is weak, the MCS continues to thrive amid strong to extreme buoyancy. The MCS will begin to merge with preceding storms that have formed off of another frontal boundary, but is nonetheless poised to continue producing severe gusts. Local watch extensions and/or a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance farther south may be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 43489698 42759451 42319418 41849419 41389464 41039537 40879594 40919668 41189735 41669762 41879778 42119781 42389780 42649751 42889728 43489698 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1840 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0836 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 300136Z - 300300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in severe gusts may be noted with a strengthening MCS across central Nebraska. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven, elongated convective system has recently oriented more normal to the deep-layer shear vector, which may be supporting bowing features. Furthermore, the MCS is propagating into the axis of maximum buoyancy (5000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE) and minimal MLCINH. Therefore, it is plausible to witness an increase in severe wind gusts over the next few hours, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to address this threat. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41559939 41859844 41969717 41729645 41229594 40659588 40519607 40359657 40139796 40169883 40189947 41559939 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0560 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more