Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1843 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559...560... FOR SOUTHEAST NE...WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1843 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Areas affected...Southeast NE...Western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559...560... Valid 300455Z - 300700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559, 560 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe gusts remains across southeast NE and western IA. DISCUSSION...The merger of two somewhat separate convective lines resulting in complex convective evolution across eastern NE and western IA over the past hour or so. The result is singular convective line that extends from near SLB in Buena Vista County IA southwestward to about 40 miles south-southeast of HSI in Nuckolls County NE. The overall system remains fairly strong, with cold cloud tops (i.e. -70 to -75 deg C) and high reflectivity above 30 kft. Even so, the outflow has surged out ahead of the line and the number of strong to severe gusts has been gradually decreasing. Given that strong buoyancy remains in place, the intensity of the convection should continue to modulate, occasionally resulting in strong to severe gusts. Mergers with any leading cells could also act to enhance the strong/severe gust potential. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 42309606 42619486 42249404 40809431 40529600 40569724 40969766 41659725 42309606 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
300740- STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LNK TO 20 SSE OMA TO 35 ENE OMA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1843 AND 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-300740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-109-131-300740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS LANCASTER OTOE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DNS TO 15 NW FOD. WW 559 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-073-077-187-300700- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL GREENE GUTHRIE WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DNS TO 15 NW FOD. WW 559 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-073-077-187-300700- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL GREENE GUTHRIE WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DNS TO 15 NW FOD. WW 559 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-073-077-187-300700- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL GREENE GUTHRIE WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DNS TO 15 NW FOD. WW 559 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-073-077-187-300700- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL GREENE GUTHRIE WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DNS TO 15 NW FOD. WW 559 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-073-077-187-300700- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL GREENE GUTHRIE WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DNS TO 15 NW FOD. WW 559 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-073-077-187-300700- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL GREENE GUTHRIE WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 559 SEVERE TSTM IA 300125Z - 300700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 825 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line across far southeast South Dakota and northeast Nebraska is expected to continue southeastward into northwest Iowa this evening. The airmass across much of western and central Iowa is very unstable, supporting a continued threat for strong to severe wind gusts as the line moves through the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north of Sioux City IA to 45 miles south of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 556...WW 557...WW 558... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0561 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the central High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will also support some damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and high moisture content (2+" PWAT). ..Bentley.. 07/30/2025 Read more