Severe Storms

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more