Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS FRANCINE AND OVER THE EASTERN MONTANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Tropical Storm Francine... TS Francine continues its slow drift inland, and is expected to progress across southern/central MS to near Memphis by the end of the period. Strong low-level shear will spread/develop north, to the immediate north-east of the center of circulation. As is typical, poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy today, and latest model guidance suggests only a narrow corridor of weak-modest 0-3km lapse rates, primarily across southwestern into west-central AL. Robust, long-lived supercells have struggled to develop with this system, and forecast thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive. Even so, scattered lightning is noted with deeper updrafts offshore, along with a few supercells. This activity will spread inland later this morning and there remains some concern for a few tornadoes where boundary-layer destabilization is maximized. ...Eastern Montana Region... Strong upper trough has progressed into the northern Intermountain region, from western ID into NV. This trough will advance into the northern Rockies later today as a 500mb speed max translates across UT into eastern WY/MT. This evolution will warrant a cold front surging into eastern MT/northwest WY by 18z. Greatest boundary-layer heating will initially be across eastern WY, but significant surface heating across eastern MT should lead to steep 0-3km lapse rates and convective temperatures will likely be breached across northern WY/southern MT by 20z. Deep convection should readily develop over the Big Horn Mountains/surrounding higher terrain as the left-exit region of the 500mb speed max approaches. Latest HREF guidance strongly favors robust convection evolving by mid afternoon, with several long-lived supercells depicted in most members. Forecast soundings favor sustained rotating updrafts and high-based convection should generate strong winds, and perhaps large hail. While PWs are seasonally low, ample buoyancy will likely exist for allowing this activity to spread into western ND later in the evening, especially given the strengthening LLJ across this portion of the Dakotas after sunset. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/12/2024 Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE GPT TO 35 S PIB TO 35 SW PIB TO 30 WNW PIB. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-120640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-120640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-073-109-111-131-120640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON LAMAR PEARL RIVER PERRY Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0668 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0668 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 667 TORNADO LA MS CW 111740Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 667 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Louisiana Far Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Hurricane Francine will continue to approach the southern Louisiana coast and move inland as it progresses northeastward across the region through tonight. The potential for tornadoes is expected to increase through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Houma LA to 40 miles east southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16045. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2056 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 667... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana...far southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 667... Valid 120020Z - 120145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 667 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues over the northeastern quadrant of Francine. While storms have not been overly active so far, strong low-level shear remains in place and a greater threat could evolve tonight. DISCUSSION...As of 0015z, the center of Hurricane Francine was located 55 miles southwest of New Orleans, LA. Within the northeastern quadrant, low-level hodographs have continued to enlarge this evening with the HDC VAD showing 500-600 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH. While low-level shear remains very strong, east/northeasterly surface flow has prevented the more unstable air mass farther south from moving inland to this point. As the center of Francine continues to move inland, low-level flow should begin to veer, allowing the higher theta-E air mass to move onshore. This looks most likely to occur over eastern portions of WW667 into southern MS and far southwest AL later this evening. Convective cells within the eastern most spiral bands have shown more cellular mode and occasional rotation. Hi-res guidance shows a few of these supercells potentially moving inland tonight. Ahead of these storms, RAP soundings show enlarging hodographs and modest buoyancy (~500-700 J/kg of MLCAPE) that could support the potential for a few tornadoes this evening. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30608816 30298753 30158747 29678755 29548789 29538851 29418889 29308918 29418958 29779059 30059076 30439054 30629042 30938974 30928909 30818852 30608816 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more