Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MOB TO 10 E GPT TO 35 S PIB TO 35 SW PIB TO 25 WNW PIB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2057. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-120740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-120740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON MSC035-039-041-047-059-073-111-131-120740- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves eastward and ejects over the northern/central Plains today and tonight. As the trough moves east, a lee low/trough will quickly deepen, supporting strong surface winds over the Plains. A cold front approaching from the west will move through the Great Basin also supporting strong surface winds over the Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West and western Plains through this evening. ...Central and northern Plains... As the upper-level trough approaches from the west this morning, southerly surface winds are expected to rapidly increase over much of the High Plains. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as low pressure and the trailing lee trough deepen. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be considerably higher farther east, as low-level moisture advects northward. Still, strong gusts of 25-30 mph are likely with pockets of afternoon RH as low as 25-30%. Strong winds will accelerate drying of fine fuels after recent scattered precipitation, with critically dry fuels expected over much of the central and northern Plains by this afternoon. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. Despite some recent drying, area fuels are not particularly dry after rainfall in the last 48 hours. However, given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely, especially over parts of western CO and eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves eastward and ejects over the northern/central Plains today and tonight. As the trough moves east, a lee low/trough will quickly deepen, supporting strong surface winds over the Plains. A cold front approaching from the west will move through the Great Basin also supporting strong surface winds over the Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West and western Plains through this evening. ...Central and northern Plains... As the upper-level trough approaches from the west this morning, southerly surface winds are expected to rapidly increase over much of the High Plains. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as low pressure and the trailing lee trough deepen. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be considerably higher farther east, as low-level moisture advects northward. Still, strong gusts of 25-30 mph are likely with pockets of afternoon RH as low as 25-30%. Strong winds will accelerate drying of fine fuels after recent scattered precipitation, with critically dry fuels expected over much of the central and northern Plains by this afternoon. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. Despite some recent drying, area fuels are not particularly dry after rainfall in the last 48 hours. However, given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely, especially over parts of western CO and eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves eastward and ejects over the northern/central Plains today and tonight. As the trough moves east, a lee low/trough will quickly deepen, supporting strong surface winds over the Plains. A cold front approaching from the west will move through the Great Basin also supporting strong surface winds over the Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West and western Plains through this evening. ...Central and northern Plains... As the upper-level trough approaches from the west this morning, southerly surface winds are expected to rapidly increase over much of the High Plains. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as low pressure and the trailing lee trough deepen. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be considerably higher farther east, as low-level moisture advects northward. Still, strong gusts of 25-30 mph are likely with pockets of afternoon RH as low as 25-30%. Strong winds will accelerate drying of fine fuels after recent scattered precipitation, with critically dry fuels expected over much of the central and northern Plains by this afternoon. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. Despite some recent drying, area fuels are not particularly dry after rainfall in the last 48 hours. However, given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely, especially over parts of western CO and eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE... ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves eastward and ejects over the northern/central Plains today and tonight. As the trough moves east, a lee low/trough will quickly deepen, supporting strong surface winds over the Plains. A cold front approaching from the west will move through the Great Basin also supporting strong surface winds over the Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West and western Plains through this evening. ...Central and northern Plains... As the upper-level trough approaches from the west this morning, southerly surface winds are expected to rapidly increase over much of the High Plains. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as low pressure and the trailing lee trough deepen. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be considerably higher farther east, as low-level moisture advects northward. Still, strong gusts of 25-30 mph are likely with pockets of afternoon RH as low as 25-30%. Strong winds will accelerate drying of fine fuels after recent scattered precipitation, with critically dry fuels expected over much of the central and northern Plains by this afternoon. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. Despite some recent drying, area fuels are not particularly dry after rainfall in the last 48 hours. However, given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely, especially over parts of western CO and eastern UT. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more