Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 1 17:54:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central/southern High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will persist in the western/central CONUS on Saturday. A few smaller shortwave perturbations may move through the zonal flow aloft in the northern/central Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible within the higher terrain. This activity will eventually move into the High Plains. A surface boundary will be the focus for convection in the Southeast. Some of this activity may be strong to locally severe. ...Central/southern High Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will develop across the central Rockies through the day. A weak shortwave trough may also approach the region from the Great Basin. With a weak lee trough and surface southerly/southeasterly winds, effective shear of 40-45 kts would support supercells, at least initially. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will likely result in outflow dominant storms with quicker clustering/upscale growth. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs make large hail a possibility with these initials cells. With time, cell interactions will likely produce a few clusters that will move into the High Plains. A modest low-level jet will develop during the evening in the southern High Plains. This region appears to have a greater potential for sustaining storms farther south and east for that reason. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Along the surface boundary, a weak frontal wave is possible near the Alabama/Georgia border. This, in combination with heating along the boundary, will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Given the mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and high PWAT values, scattered storm coverage could lead to isolated strong/damaging downburst winds. Shear will be quite modest (around 20 kts of effective shear or less) and the local severe risk will be dependent on storm clustering. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central/southern High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will persist in the western/central CONUS on Saturday. A few smaller shortwave perturbations may move through the zonal flow aloft in the northern/central Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible within the higher terrain. This activity will eventually move into the High Plains. A surface boundary will be the focus for convection in the Southeast. Some of this activity may be strong to locally severe. ...Central/southern High Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will develop across the central Rockies through the day. A weak shortwave trough may also approach the region from the Great Basin. With a weak lee trough and surface southerly/southeasterly winds, effective shear of 40-45 kts would support supercells, at least initially. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will likely result in outflow dominant storms with quicker clustering/upscale growth. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs make large hail a possibility with these initials cells. With time, cell interactions will likely produce a few clusters that will move into the High Plains. A modest low-level jet will develop during the evening in the southern High Plains. This region appears to have a greater potential for sustaining storms farther south and east for that reason. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Along the surface boundary, a weak frontal wave is possible near the Alabama/Georgia border. This, in combination with heating along the boundary, will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Given the mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and high PWAT values, scattered storm coverage could lead to isolated strong/damaging downburst winds. Shear will be quite modest (around 20 kts of effective shear or less) and the local severe risk will be dependent on storm clustering. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central/southern High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will persist in the western/central CONUS on Saturday. A few smaller shortwave perturbations may move through the zonal flow aloft in the northern/central Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible within the higher terrain. This activity will eventually move into the High Plains. A surface boundary will be the focus for convection in the Southeast. Some of this activity may be strong to locally severe. ...Central/southern High Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will develop across the central Rockies through the day. A weak shortwave trough may also approach the region from the Great Basin. With a weak lee trough and surface southerly/southeasterly winds, effective shear of 40-45 kts would support supercells, at least initially. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will likely result in outflow dominant storms with quicker clustering/upscale growth. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs make large hail a possibility with these initials cells. With time, cell interactions will likely produce a few clusters that will move into the High Plains. A modest low-level jet will develop during the evening in the southern High Plains. This region appears to have a greater potential for sustaining storms farther south and east for that reason. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Along the surface boundary, a weak frontal wave is possible near the Alabama/Georgia border. This, in combination with heating along the boundary, will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Given the mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and high PWAT values, scattered storm coverage could lead to isolated strong/damaging downburst winds. Shear will be quite modest (around 20 kts of effective shear or less) and the local severe risk will be dependent on storm clustering. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central/southern High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will persist in the western/central CONUS on Saturday. A few smaller shortwave perturbations may move through the zonal flow aloft in the northern/central Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible within the higher terrain. This activity will eventually move into the High Plains. A surface boundary will be the focus for convection in the Southeast. Some of this activity may be strong to locally severe. ...Central/southern High Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will develop across the central Rockies through the day. A weak shortwave trough may also approach the region from the Great Basin. With a weak lee trough and surface southerly/southeasterly winds, effective shear of 40-45 kts would support supercells, at least initially. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will likely result in outflow dominant storms with quicker clustering/upscale growth. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs make large hail a possibility with these initials cells. With time, cell interactions will likely produce a few clusters that will move into the High Plains. A modest low-level jet will develop during the evening in the southern High Plains. This region appears to have a greater potential for sustaining storms farther south and east for that reason. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Along the surface boundary, a weak frontal wave is possible near the Alabama/Georgia border. This, in combination with heating along the boundary, will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Given the mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and high PWAT values, scattered storm coverage could lead to isolated strong/damaging downburst winds. Shear will be quite modest (around 20 kts of effective shear or less) and the local severe risk will be dependent on storm clustering. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central/southern High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will persist in the western/central CONUS on Saturday. A few smaller shortwave perturbations may move through the zonal flow aloft in the northern/central Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible within the higher terrain. This activity will eventually move into the High Plains. A surface boundary will be the focus for convection in the Southeast. Some of this activity may be strong to locally severe. ...Central/southern High Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will develop across the central Rockies through the day. A weak shortwave trough may also approach the region from the Great Basin. With a weak lee trough and surface southerly/southeasterly winds, effective shear of 40-45 kts would support supercells, at least initially. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will likely result in outflow dominant storms with quicker clustering/upscale growth. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs make large hail a possibility with these initials cells. With time, cell interactions will likely produce a few clusters that will move into the High Plains. A modest low-level jet will develop during the evening in the southern High Plains. This region appears to have a greater potential for sustaining storms farther south and east for that reason. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Along the surface boundary, a weak frontal wave is possible near the Alabama/Georgia border. This, in combination with heating along the boundary, will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Given the mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and high PWAT values, scattered storm coverage could lead to isolated strong/damaging downburst winds. Shear will be quite modest (around 20 kts of effective shear or less) and the local severe risk will be dependent on storm clustering. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central/southern High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will persist in the western/central CONUS on Saturday. A few smaller shortwave perturbations may move through the zonal flow aloft in the northern/central Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible within the higher terrain. This activity will eventually move into the High Plains. A surface boundary will be the focus for convection in the Southeast. Some of this activity may be strong to locally severe. ...Central/southern High Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will develop across the central Rockies through the day. A weak shortwave trough may also approach the region from the Great Basin. With a weak lee trough and surface southerly/southeasterly winds, effective shear of 40-45 kts would support supercells, at least initially. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will likely result in outflow dominant storms with quicker clustering/upscale growth. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs make large hail a possibility with these initials cells. With time, cell interactions will likely produce a few clusters that will move into the High Plains. A modest low-level jet will develop during the evening in the southern High Plains. This region appears to have a greater potential for sustaining storms farther south and east for that reason. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Along the surface boundary, a weak frontal wave is possible near the Alabama/Georgia border. This, in combination with heating along the boundary, will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Given the mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and high PWAT values, scattered storm coverage could lead to isolated strong/damaging downburst winds. Shear will be quite modest (around 20 kts of effective shear or less) and the local severe risk will be dependent on storm clustering. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central/southern High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will persist in the western/central CONUS on Saturday. A few smaller shortwave perturbations may move through the zonal flow aloft in the northern/central Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible within the higher terrain. This activity will eventually move into the High Plains. A surface boundary will be the focus for convection in the Southeast. Some of this activity may be strong to locally severe. ...Central/southern High Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will develop across the central Rockies through the day. A weak shortwave trough may also approach the region from the Great Basin. With a weak lee trough and surface southerly/southeasterly winds, effective shear of 40-45 kts would support supercells, at least initially. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will likely result in outflow dominant storms with quicker clustering/upscale growth. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs make large hail a possibility with these initials cells. With time, cell interactions will likely produce a few clusters that will move into the High Plains. A modest low-level jet will develop during the evening in the southern High Plains. This region appears to have a greater potential for sustaining storms farther south and east for that reason. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Along the surface boundary, a weak frontal wave is possible near the Alabama/Georgia border. This, in combination with heating along the boundary, will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Given the mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and high PWAT values, scattered storm coverage could lead to isolated strong/damaging downburst winds. Shear will be quite modest (around 20 kts of effective shear or less) and the local severe risk will be dependent on storm clustering. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central/southern High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will persist in the western/central CONUS on Saturday. A few smaller shortwave perturbations may move through the zonal flow aloft in the northern/central Rockies. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible within the higher terrain. This activity will eventually move into the High Plains. A surface boundary will be the focus for convection in the Southeast. Some of this activity may be strong to locally severe. ...Central/southern High Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will develop across the central Rockies through the day. A weak shortwave trough may also approach the region from the Great Basin. With a weak lee trough and surface southerly/southeasterly winds, effective shear of 40-45 kts would support supercells, at least initially. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will likely result in outflow dominant storms with quicker clustering/upscale growth. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs make large hail a possibility with these initials cells. With time, cell interactions will likely produce a few clusters that will move into the High Plains. A modest low-level jet will develop during the evening in the southern High Plains. This region appears to have a greater potential for sustaining storms farther south and east for that reason. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Along the surface boundary, a weak frontal wave is possible near the Alabama/Georgia border. This, in combination with heating along the boundary, will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Given the mid/upper 70s F dewpoints and high PWAT values, scattered storm coverage could lead to isolated strong/damaging downburst winds. Shear will be quite modest (around 20 kts of effective shear or less) and the local severe risk will be dependent on storm clustering. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more