Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more